French Socialist Party leadership race, 2008
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  French Socialist Party leadership race, 2008
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Author Topic: French Socialist Party leadership race, 2008  (Read 24847 times)
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Hashemite
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« Reply #50 on: November 12, 2008, 04:38:14 PM »



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big bad fab
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« Reply #51 on: November 12, 2008, 05:26:05 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2008, 06:10:20 PM by big bad fab »

Congratulations, Hashemite !

What can we see ?

Just strongholds around their feudal leaders....

These maps is not sociological (PGSable, please, NO diagonale du vide in this case: Haute-Marne, Cher, Indre, Nièvre, Corrèze, Lot aren't really good results for Hamon and Manche, Calvados, Somme, Essonne, Loire, Pyrénée Atlantiques are NOT part of this diagonale; besides, even the west of Aube is now more a remote suburb of Paris rather than part of diagonale du vide), nor really ideological.

These maps are just an image of the PS fragmentation around small, less small and smaller leaders....
Fascinating !

Royal nowadays is: Royal (Poitou-Charentes) + Rebsamen (Côte d'Or) + Peillon (Somme; was on NPS, motion 3 in 2005) + Guérini (Bouches-du-Rhône, Var, Alpes Maritimes) + Collomb (Rhône) + Bianco (Alpes de Haute Provence). Even little new baronets like Guillaume Garot (new mayor of Laval and new supporter of Royal) delivered Mayenne for her.
Hérault's fédération is a bit troubled, with former big mayor of Montpellier Georges Frèche expelled from the PS. But she won handily Hérault.

Aubry is: Fabius (Seine-Maritime, Eure, Calvados, Oise, Indre, Cher, Vosges, Haute-Corse, Pyrénées Orientales, Seine-Saint-Denis with Fabius closest lieutenant, Claude Bartolone, new president of the conseil général) + Mauroy-Aubry lands in Nord-Pas-de-Calais + Montebourg (Saône et Loire; was NPS, motion 3 back in '05).
Gironde is a surprise because it was fabiusian for a long time.
Note that in Finistère, Aubry did less bad than in the rest of Bretagne as Marylise Lebranchu, former mayor of Morlaix, is a close supporter.

Hamon is: the left of the party... Emmanuelli (Landes, Pyrénées Atlantiques), Manche, Aube, Creuse and Essonne (with Lienemann and Mélenchon, who has just left the party).

Delanoë is: Hollande (Corrèze, Haute-Vienne, Cantal), Moscovici (Doubs, Territoire-de-Belfort), the remnants of Jospin and DSK strongholds (Ariège, Vaucluse, Paris, Val-de-Marne, Val-d'Oise) and Rocard strongholds (Bretagne, Bas-Rhin, Franche-Comté).
Haute-Garonne is a surprise: as former Jospin's second base, it should have been better for Delanoë.

This shows us that Aubry, who may well end as the new leader of the PS, as the candidate of an anti-Royal majority, is in fact not very strong....
This shows us that Delanoë hasn't real strong bases, apart from Hollande's ones.

Tonight, Royal didn't say if she will be candidate.

Each leader is trying not to say many things and to let the others fail or make a mistake, just not to be regarded as the big murderer or trouble-maker....
To be continued!
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« Reply #52 on: November 12, 2008, 05:39:44 PM »

Just strongholds around their feudal leaders....

These maps is not sociological (PGSable, please, NO diagonale du vide in this case: Haute-Marne, Cher, Indre, Nièvre, Corrèze, Lot aren't really good results for Hamon and Manche, Calvados, Somme, Essonne, Loire, Pyrénée Atlantiques are NOT part of this diagonale; besides, even the west of Aube is now more a remote suburb of Paris rather than part of diagonale du vide), nor really ideological.

Amusing how a majority of the results are so strongly based on party bosses and barons.

Royal nowadays is: Royal (Poitou-Charentes) + Rebsamen (Côte d'Or) + Peillon (Somme; was on NPS, motion 3 in 2005) + Guérini (Bouches-du-Rhône, Var, Alpes Maritimes) + Collomb (Rhône) + Bianco (Alpes de Haute Provence). Even little new baronets like Guillaume Garot (new mayor of Laval and new supporter of Royal) delivered Mayenne for her.
Hérault's fédération is a bit troubled, with former big mayor of Montpellier Georges Frèche expelled from the PS. But she won handily Hérault.

Any idea on her very strong showing in the Aude? Did the local PS boss endorse her and I didn't hear?

Aubry is: Fabius (Seine-Maritime, Eure, Calvados, Oise, Indre, Cher, Vosges, Haute-Corse, Pyrénées Orientales, Seine-Saint-Denis with Fabius closest lieutenant, Claude Bartolone, new president of the conseil général) + Mauroy-Aubry lands in Nord-Pas-de-Calais + Montebourg (Saône et Loire; was NPS, motion 3 back in '05).
Gironde is a surprise because it was fabiusian for a long time.
Note that in Finistère, Aubry did less bad than in the rest of Bretagne as Marylise Lebranchu, former mayor of Morlaix, is a close supporter.

Finistère was the best or second-best department for Fabius in 2005 IIRC. Gironde surprised me too. The Eure surprised me too. She won it, but with only 33% or something. Fabius took like 50% there in 2005 and 40% in the primary. Leadership change in the local PS?

Hamon is: the left of the party... Emmanuelli (Landes, Pyrénées Atlantiques), Manche, Aube, Creuse and Essonne (with Lienemann and Mélenchon, who has just left the party).

Amusing how NPSish his map is in some areas and not at all in others. But yes, another map based solely on endorsements.

Delanoë is: Hollande (Corrèze, Haute-Vienne, Cantal) the remnants of Jospin and DSK strongholds (Ariège, Vaucluse, Paris, Val-de-Marne, Val-d'Oise) and Rocard strongholds (Bretagne, Bas-Rhin, Franche-Comté).
Haute-Garonne is a surprise: as former Jospin's second base, it should have been better for Delanoë.

The establishment. He underperformed in Paris suburbia.

Each leader is trying not to say many things and to let the others fail or make a mistake, just not to be regarded as the big murderer or trouble-maker....
To be continued!

Hamon just said he won't work with Royal. First one to do so IIRC. Atleast the guy is honest.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #53 on: November 12, 2008, 06:03:12 PM »

No idea for Aude department: in this federation, there is never a clear leader, so I'm not very competent on this one.

Sure, Eure is a bit low for Fabius, but maybe François Loncle is a bit old now and is rejected by some. Maybe there are new members who are more in favor of Royal (just a guess).

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« Reply #54 on: November 14, 2008, 03:32:06 PM »
« Edited: November 14, 2008, 04:56:11 PM by PGSable »

Royal has announced her candidacy (well, she had it announced for her), and Delanoë will not support Aubry or Hamon. If Royal is elected, she intends to create a new position, deputy first secretary, and appoint Vincent Peillon.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #55 on: November 14, 2008, 04:53:08 PM »

This is war.

The problem is now: who will fight against Royal ?
Aubry would win, but Hamon want to go. And he won't necessarily win: he is really on the left.

As Delanoë is stupidly outsiding himself more and more, Aubry should run, as she will be able to win next Thursday when PS members will vote again, this time for first secretary.

A congress for nothing....

If Royal wins, she won't have a majority in national and executive committees...
If Aubry doesn't make mistakes, she may be able to take the party and she would be a real fighter against Sarkozy.
And the French MSM, which want a woman (we don't have an Obama in France...), would find in Aubry a "reasonable" and seirous woman (unlike Royal). Aubry would be the only dangerous PS candidate for Sarkozy.
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« Reply #56 on: November 15, 2008, 04:07:08 PM »

The convention began yesterday. Delanoë claimed last night that he was ready to withdraw his candidacy if necessary.

Today, Ayrault called on the four candidates to back down and support a compromise candidate (he recommended Moscovici). Collomb called on Moscovici to abandon Delanoë and join Royal's camp, and offered him the post of third-in-command (after Royal and Peillon). Moscovici turned down the offer.

Hamon announced his candidacy through Henri Emmanuelli, and rejected any compromise with Delanoë or Aubry. He has the support of Utopia.

Delanoë called for the creation of an anti-Royal majority with Aubry and Hamon, as did an Aubry supporter. He bashed Royal's plans to ally the PS with the MoDem.

Royal spoke and was jeered and whistled, but she didn't back down from her plans to ally with the MoDem.

Aubry reached out to Delanoë. When she started speaking, the crowd cheered her. Fabius then echoed Delanoë's criticism of Royal's alliance with Bayrou.
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« Reply #57 on: November 15, 2008, 04:09:38 PM »

What a totally useless waste-of-time Congress.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #58 on: November 15, 2008, 04:43:08 PM »
« Edited: November 15, 2008, 05:40:31 PM by big bad fab »

A waste of time for the PS, sure !

From an UMP viewpoint, a very delightful time....

Hamon will maintain his candidacy, Royal too.
If Aubry is candidate, she may win the popular vote with a plurality, maybe the worst situation for the PS...

Let's say turnout is bigger (65%).
Hamon wouldn't benefit from it, but he may have energized his base and some fabiusians might vote for him rather than for Aubry, because a weak and leftist leader may allow Fabius to be seen, in 2011, as a good solution for 2012.
So, Hamon would take 18%.

Some voters from Delanoë's motion would vote for Royal because they are real reformists, but this motion was already at a low level and should have gathered all the "establishment" and tradiytional members.

Royal would grasp two thirds of the new voters, I think.

So, Royal would win about 38% and Aubry 44%.

We'll see. I can't imagine now that there is only one anti-Royal candidate (Hamon).
As Delanoë doesn't want to be beaten again, Aubry has a good opportunity to take his supporters without being tied to him and Hollande in a new motion, mixed between their former ones.

Be prepared for some bitter years in the PS !
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« Reply #59 on: November 15, 2008, 05:25:52 PM »

lol

The French left is so funny.
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« Reply #60 on: November 16, 2008, 10:58:53 AM »

The convention is over, and Delanoë is not running. The three candidates for first secretary are Royal, Aubry, and Hamon. Hollande and Delanoë did not make any endorsements.
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« Reply #61 on: November 16, 2008, 11:00:40 AM »

I'm putting my money on Aubry.
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PGSable
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« Reply #62 on: November 16, 2008, 11:03:49 AM »


So am I. I don't see how Royal can win at this point.
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« Reply #63 on: November 16, 2008, 11:16:07 AM »

But Le Monde disagrees:

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« Reply #64 on: November 16, 2008, 11:19:46 AM »

80%? ROFL.
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Math
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« Reply #65 on: November 16, 2008, 02:17:55 PM »

They just try to drop the expectation. If Aubry wins, it will be seen as a complete reversal of the situation.
Sure, it is not very subtle...
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« Reply #66 on: November 16, 2008, 02:38:33 PM »

They just try to drop the expectation. If Aubry wins, it will be seen as a complete reversal of the situation.
Sure, it is not very subtle...

Atleast say 50% or maximum 60% if you want to look subtle and believable. But 80%? ROFL. Everybody knows that Royal won't win 80%.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #67 on: November 16, 2008, 04:14:24 PM »

Please remember that my political predictions are always wrong when it's tie or suspenseful !

But I keep on making predictions....

I keep 44% for Aubry but I would put Royal rather at 40% and Hamon at 16%.

Only 55% of PS members voted for the motions.  More will vote on Thursday and it will be good for Royal.
But Aubry has very well manoeuvered, politically speaking. She comes from nothing and she is in a central location.
Her problem is that the vote is already on Thursday. Should he have more time, her victory would be likelier.
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« Reply #68 on: November 17, 2008, 07:47:16 AM »

Delanoë has endorsed Aubry
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #69 on: November 17, 2008, 04:06:42 PM »

Too bad there are no elections for four years...
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big bad fab
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« Reply #70 on: November 17, 2008, 05:35:02 PM »

Listen to that: on Thursday night, if none of the 3 candidates gather more than 50%, there will be a run-off !!!
I thought it would be a first-past-the-vote. I hadn't even imagined they had build a system like this one....

I still put Aubry ahead, but without an outrgiht majority (44-40-16).

In a run-off, Aubry would win 53-47 against Royal.

But, many PS members may be fed up and elect Hamon. Or Royal would rally again "new" members, "supporters", as in late 2006 when she won the primary race.

The "renouvellement", the rejuvenating of the party is a popular theme, so Aubry may lose. But if the political logic is followed, she should win.

A fascinating race, anyway.
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« Reply #71 on: November 17, 2008, 05:36:46 PM »

One word sums it all up.

Lolz
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« Reply #72 on: November 20, 2008, 05:12:35 PM »
« Edited: November 20, 2008, 05:23:07 PM by PGSable »

The first round was held today. The full results aren't available yet (they should be within two hours). Ouest France has some preliminary results from Orne:

Royal 56.99%
Aubry 24.83%
Hamon 17.48%

That leaves 0.70% unaccounted for Huh

Royal's motion had won 51.28% on November 6.


Edit: France Info says turnout went up ten points as compared to November 6. They added that Royal seems to have surged in rural areas and is likely to win a plurality tonight, and that Aubry and Hamon were fighting for second place. Shocked
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« Reply #73 on: November 20, 2008, 05:21:13 PM »

You scared me for a moment. I thought the drug-addict had won.
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« Reply #74 on: November 20, 2008, 05:37:21 PM »
« Edited: November 20, 2008, 05:48:05 PM by PGSable »

You scared me for a moment. I thought the drug-addict had won.

Sorry about that Smiley


France Info had some more results departmental results.

Haute-Garonne: Royal is ahead.

Rhône: Royal 50.65%, Aubry 28.57%, Hamon 20.78%
Royal was strong in Lyon, of course, but Hamon did very well in the Lyon suburbs.


Edit: More results from Ouest-France.

Loire-Atlantique: Royal 45.35%, Aubry 26.95%, Hamon 25% (that leaves 2.7% unaccounted for), with 49 of 55 sections reporting

Mayenne: Royal 72%, Hamon 14.48%, Aubry 13.65%

Morbihan: Royal 52.68%, Hamon 25.63%, Aubry 21.69%

Sarthe: Royal 41%, Aubry 39%, Hamon 21%; turnout 75%

Vendée: Royal is ahead.


Edit: France Info says Royal won 37% in Haute-Garonne.
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