French Socialist Party leadership race, 2008

[PGSable]

In Pas-de-Calais, Martine Aubry is currently at 63% (she won 55% yesterday), with 25% of sections reporting. Turnout was slightly up from yesterday in the federation, which was expected because the militants also voted in a federal secretary runoff.

[PGSable]

The PS leadership told Reuters that Royal won 52 to 53% of the vote; the Aubry campaign says Royal has 50.9%.

Any place with the results by fed from last night?

The federation's website says:

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[PGSable]

No, I was talking about all 102 feds.

I can't find any; the PS website isn't up to date. The individual federation websites do have results, though.

[PGSable]

With roughly half of all votes counted, Royal is at 52%. Big federations such as Bouches-du-Rhône, Nord, and Pas-de-Calas have yet to report. Royal insists that her margin is higher, while Aubry insists that it's too close to call.

Aubry wins Haute-Garonne with 52.5%. Hamon won 32% here yesterday; his voters turned out, but only two thirds of them went for Aubry.

Royal wins Lyon with 56.3%.

[PGSable]

Now with three quarters of all votes counted, the Royal campaign claims 53%; Aubry still says it's 50–50.

[PGSable]

Not yet complete results by federations for the first round.

From Libération.fr:

A quelques exceptions près, Ségolène Royal remporte en région des scores similaires à son résultat national. Revue de détail.

En région Centre, les résultats sont la photocopie conforme du score national: Royal en tête avec 42,22% des suffrages, suivie par Martine Aubry (34,70%) et Benoît Hamon (23,04%).

Dans l'Est, en Moselle, Royal arrive largement en tête avec 820 voix des militants dans le département (56,75 %), contre 375 à Martine Aubry et 267 à Benoit Hamon.
Idem dans le Bas-Rhin: Ségolène Royal remporte 42,5 % des suffrages (386 voix). Martine Aubry suit, avec 43 voix de retard (37,78 %), et Benoit Hamon obtient 179 voix (19,71 %).

Dans le Rhône, fédération de Gérard Collomb, premier signataire de sa motion, Ségolène Royal devient majoritaire. La présidente de Poitou-Charente a réuni hier soir 50,65% des suffrages, soit 22 points de plus que sa seconde, Martine Aubry (28,57%). Celle-ci partait cependant de loin et a bénéficié d'assez bons reports des partisans de Bertrand Delanoë.

Martine Aubry, maire de Lille, arrive d'ailleurs première dans le Nord avec 62,5% des suffrages (sa motion totalisait 58% des suffrages le 6 novembre). Benoît Hamon progresse de trois points. Ségolène Royal, elle, double carrément son score (elle était à 10,39%).

En Aquitaine, Ségolène Royal fait le plein dans quatre départements sur cinq. La Gironde ne sort pas du rang et a bien suivi la tendance nationale en respectant l’ordre du trio. Ségolène Royal est donc en tête, avec 43% des voix. Mais elle marque ici son avance face à Martine Aubry qui n’affiche que 29% des suffrages, au coude à coude avec Benoît Hamon, fort de 26%. Ce dernier arrive en tête dans les Landes.

Dans les Bouches-du-Rhône, les militants ont voté en masse pour Royal, suivant le choix de leur leader départemental Jean-Noël Guérini. Elle remporte 69% des voix, Aubry est loin derrière avec autour de 20%. La maire de Lille, qui avait fait 9,2% le 6 novembre, a semble-t-il récupéré les 9,3% de Bertrand Delanoë. Quant à Benoit Hamon, il réalise autour de 10%, améliorant son score du 6 novembre (6,6%).

En Bretagne, enfin, Royal est nettement en tête: après avoir voté pour la motion de Bertrand Delanoé pour le congrès de Reims, la majorité des militants socialistes bretons ont reporté leurs voix sur Ségolène Royal. L'ex-candidate aux présidentielles réalise son meilleur score dans le Morbihan avec 52,7% des voix devant Benoît Hamon, 25,6%, et Martine Aubry, 22,7%. Les scores sont plus serrés dans le Finistère où la présidente de la région Poitou-Charente réunit quand même 40% des votants sur son nom, devant Martine Aubry, 35%, et le Brestois Benoît Hamon, 25%.

And for the run-off, it seems as if I'm completely xrong in my predictions.... AGAIN !

It's a rule: when I make a prediction, just take the opposite... and you're sure to be right....

But let's wait a bit.

Do you know when we can expect full results by federation for both rounds?

[PGSable]

Again, results from Ouest France.

Basse Normandie
Calvados: Aubry 59.5%, turnout 60.3% (61% on Thursday)
Manche: Aubry 58.14%, turnout 59.19% (53.46% on Thursday)
Orne: Royal 64%, turnout 60.29% (down 1% from Thursday and 4% from November 6)

Bretagne
Côtes-d'Armor: no results
Finistère: Aubry 52.93%, turnout 69.40%
Ille-et-Vilaine: Royal is ahead by two votes, turnout 50.98%
Morbihan: Royal 63.20%

Pays de la Loire
Loire-Atlantique: Royal 51.99%
Maine-et-Loire: Aubry 50.85% (twelve-vote margin), turnout 53.01%, results by section
Mayenne: Royal 79.50%, turnout 67.48% (same as Thursday)
Sarthe: Royal 53%, turnout 72%
Vendée: Royal 65.15%, turnout 67.43%

[PGSable]

A recount now seems guaranteed. Some of Royal's supporters are saying they will split from the PS and form a new party if Aubry wins.

[PGSable]

So,what's Aubry's lead at the moment?

By this count, Aubry is now leading Royal by 56 votes.

The count on Friday night was Aubry 67 413, Royal 67 371 (Aubry +42).
Changes since then were:
Moselle: Aubry –12, Royal +12
Nord: Aubry –20, Royal ±0
New Caledonia: Aubry +3, Royal +16
Gironde: Aubry +11, Royal –41
French citizens abroad: Aubry +49, Royal +30

So, in total, Aubry's vote increased by 31 to 67 444, and Royal's vote increased by 17 to 67 388 (Aubry +56).

[PGSable]

The commission de récolement met today. The Royal campaign accused forty federations of voter fraud. Royal said she trusts the commission, and that she will call for a revote if the result is too close, even if she wins by ten votes. Devedjian supports a revote (of course he does). There were also some calls for Royal and Aubry to be co-first secretaries (as if things weren't going quite well enough for Sarkozy).

The commission will meet again tomorrow at 2:00 PM, and it should deliver its verdict tomorrow.

The PS's website says there was no significant voter fraud.

[PGSable]

The commission de récolement met today. Royal and Vaillant accused forty federations of voter fraud.

Vaillant, an old jospinist and former Home Minister, is the president of this committee. He denies there are cheatings or mistakes in as much as 40 federations. You must have wanted to write Rebsamen or Assouline or Mignard.

Oops. I meant Manuel Valls.

[PGSable]

The commission announced its final results: Aubry 67 451 (50.04%), Royal 67 349 (49.96%)—that's a margin of 102 votes for Aubry. The party's national council validated these results by a vote of 159 to 76, with two abstentions.

David Assouline called for a revote even after the results were announced, as did Vincent Peillon, who said that it was the condition sine qua non for the Royal supporters to rally behind Aubry. After Aubry reached out to Royal, Jean-Louis Bianco announced that the Royal campaign would be seeking legal action against the PS.


Edit: Royal has called for unity and seems to have conceded, but many of her supporters are still contesting the results. Valls and Bianco are still threatening to seek legal action against the PS if it denies them a revote.