French Socialist Party leadership race, 2008

[big bad fab]

Jack Lang has endorsed Aubry....
Michel Rocard has endorsed Delanoë.

And Sarkozy has secretly endorsed Royal, as he would easily beat her in a re-run, especially since her Saturday "show", with new haircut, jeans, many gestures and silly tone....!

I agree: Valls and Moscovici are the most realistic socialists.

I don't yet understand why Jean-Louis Bianco is so close to Royal: he is a kind, moderate, competent, mentally sane man.

[big bad fab]

Aubry will be a real danger for Delanoë, if not today, in some months, even after Delanoë likely victory.

She has succeeded in erasing her "35 hours-per-week" policy from memories. And she is hiding the fact that her base is now mainly Fabius supporters.

And she is clever to try to win the party rather by the left. Delanoë said he was liberal and socialist beacause, at the time, Royal was a danger for him: that's not very clever now.

Aubry will be more moderate in the future, with the presidential election of 2012 growing on the agenda.
And her visit to Strauss-Kahn was a mystery: did he say to her he wouldn't be candidate ? Or did he push her to weaken Delanoë and play the role of the Saviour in 2011-2012 ?

I think French medias would be glad to have a "serious" woman: this one is electable !
So, Aubry will be dangerous for Delanoë, for DSK and finally for Sarkozy.

[big bad fab]

Aubry is now officially a candidate for "le poste de première secrétaire".

She seems to have a sort of momentum inside the Socialist Party.

Delanoë seems to be supported by the old guard (Hollande and former Jospin's friends).

Aubry (though supported by the other old guard, the Fabius guard....) is sitting more in the left side of the party and, with world financial crisis, she appears to gain a bit.

[big bad fab]

All departmental federations voted in the evening of Nov. 6th.

But, up to now, results aren't in in Cher and in overseas territories. Nothing is yet published by the Socialist Party.
I think they worry a lot of local results will be contested, especially if Delanoë and Aubry are within a small gap in the hundreds or the low thousands.....
So, we'll have to wait a bit !
But less than for Missouri pres. and MN sen. !!

Anyway, these results are awful for the Socialist Party.

Delanoë was sunk by the "old" image of Hollande and is now deeply weakened as he is the main loser. And Lionel Jospin, mentor of Delanoë, didn't even bother to vote yesterday....

Hamon benefited from the financial crisis, but what can he do ? He can't lead the Socialist Party. What is more, today, Mélenchon and Dolez, 2 leftists who endorsed him, have announced that they leave the PS and will create a new leftist party. Sure, they won't have many troops, but this cut a bit the strength of Hamon's motion and, in the medias, this will have an influence.

Aubry does quite well, but she is mainly supported by Fabius (around 20% of the PS), so what can she really do ? And Hamon will refuse to let her lead the left of the party. Hamon's relative success is a problem for her.

Royal is celebrated by the medias as the winner, but who will rally her ? Delanoë is too weak and he hates her. Hollande cannot leave the Delanoë motion (and what does he represent alone ?).

"Rebellious" motions (Royal and Hamon) cannot make a majority and there are too far away ideologically.

"Traditional" motions (Delanoë and Aubry) cannot make a majority alone. And they are too much on a par.... One day, there will be a problem, at least to choose a first secretary who is anything else than a lame duck.

"Left" motions (Aubry and Hamon) cannot make a majority.

Aubry and Royal cannot agree: Fabius and Royal are arch enemies and Aubry can't stand Royal.

There are only 2 possible combinations:

1. the anti-Royal majority: Delanoë-Aubry-Fabius-Hamon. It's really possible, but it won't solve problems, notably who will be there candidate for the post of first secretary ? Difficult, as Delanoë's and Aubry's motions are on a par.... And wouldn't Hollande, Moscovici and some former supporters of Rocard (who rallied Delanoë) leave this majority to support the more moderate Royal ?
This is the likeliest solution I think, but not the more sustainable in the long term.... Fights would be left for the future....

2. the reformist and moderate majority: Royal-Valls-Moscovici-Hollande-Delanoë. A sort of re-creation of mitterrandist club.... minus the fabiusians, rallied to the heir of mauroyists (Aubry) and plus the former rocardians.
Politically, it sounds logical. BUT, considering personal aspects, it sounds very hard: Delanoë and Royal hate each other. And it will be regarded too much as an attempt to re-create the unsavvy Hollande majorities of recent years.

Really, these numbers are awful for the Socialists: had Royal won with 35% and Hamon with only 15%, it would have been very different for her; had Delanoë and Aubry made 30 each, even with Royal at 35%, they would have easily put Royal aside.

[big bad fab]

You're right: feud is the word of the day....

Mélenchon and Marc Dolez (a deputy from the Nord department) want to emulate Die Linke. But maybe it's too late now that all the party, even Royal, and even the "evil Sarkozy" speak with leftist tones...

Hamon and Aubry may agree on the paper. But it's not their interest.
I think Aubry initially wanted to be in the center of the party: Hamon-Emmanuelli-Mélenchon, Cambadélis (left strauss-kahnian) and Fabius at her left, Royal-Collomb-Valls, Hollande, Moscovici (right strauss-kahnian) and Delanoë (with former jospinists and rocardians) at her right.
We must remember that, few months ago, Delanoë write the L-word ("libéral", in the European sense: Tocqueville in politics, Adam Smith in economics; but of course, Delanoë was referring only to the former).
So, Aubry, who began to campaign late, was forced to make an alliance with Fabius and some strauss-kahnians because it was what was left.... Montebourg rallied her after (please note that Montebourg is completely outsided now: he has changed too many times.... "New Socialist Party" with the left wing, Royal, then Aubry and the so-called "reconstructeurs".... And Montebourg is too ideological: during a recent meeting of the Association des Départements de France -he's now president of the Conseil général de Saône-et-Loire- many presidents from other departments, from any aisle of the political spectrum, were irritated because he talks about Sarkozy and national politics and not about local affairs and lobbying in favor of "le département" as a threatened institution).

Anyway, Aubry without Fabius wouldn't have made a big score. So, now, she's a bit too far on the left and so, Hamon, who is young, has no interest to rescue her.

Moreover, I feel (but that's just a feeling) that Hamon and Razzye Hammadi (another former leader of the MJS,  the leftist Mouvement des Jeunes Socialistes, the PS's youth vehicle) would be more prepared to make a tactical and short-term alliance with Royal than with Aubry, just to reinforce themselves inside the party and, later, become the left wing in a 2-wings party.
During the presidential campaign, Hamon, Hammadi and the MJS were strong supporters of Royal. Between them and "Désirs d'avenir", a movement of Royal's fans, there was a little war to prove who is the more loyal and active....

An anti-Royal majority with Hamon as the least opposed candidate for the first secretariate is quite likely: a fabiusian, like Bartolone, wouldn't be agreed on by Delanoë and former jospinists; Delanoë would reject Aubry and Aubry would reject Delanoë; Michel Sapin is unknown and weak and too "hollandish" in his manners; Cambadélis is unknown and would be regarded, inside the PS as holding the party temporarily just to give it to Strauss-Kahn in 2011, outside the PS as a former Trotskyite apparatchik.

So Hamon could be a minimal consensus in an anti-Royal majority (from which Hollande and Moscovici would have departed).

Sarkozy 2012 !

NB: sure, I'm on the right, but I'm first of all a political junkie and what is happening inside the PS is wonderfully exciting, ONLY from this point of view.... For France, it's not very good as a weak PS would mean a strong far-left and/or an exuberant Bayrou, who may be even more an EGO than Sarkozy, Royal, Delanoë and Villepin.

Wait a minute. No, not Villepin.

[big bad fab]

Final results won't be published until Monday, it seems.

Royal is at 29,1.
Delanoë 24,9.
Aubry 24,4.
Hamon 18,7.

But there is a spread of about 700 votes between Delanoë and Aubry. And Guadeloupe hasn't published any result whereas it may count about 1000 votes.

Aubry regards results in La Réunion as "surprising": she's in the tens, Royal has 625 and Delanoë more than a thousand....

A symbolic battle between Aubry and Delanoë for the second place....

What is weird with the PS is that, even if there is an alliance between some motions before the national congress, party members will vote again, after the congress, to choose the first secretary in a direct election.
So, it's very possible that an alliance of 2 or 3 motions, with just over 50% of votes, pick a candidate who is defeated days later by another candidate who comes from a motion which is in the minority....

The UMP is not in a very shiny state these days and tensions are great between Devedjian, Bertrand, Hortefeux et alii, but the PS seems so shambolic that the UMP appears as a calm sea....

[big bad fab]

Final results won't be published until....the congress itself, which will "validate" the results !

Another issue to fight on.... Another problem not solved before the congress.... like the choice of the first secretary ?

Remember that even if some motions agree on a name before or even during the congress, the first secretary remains to be elected by party members on Nov.20th, in another election day....

Sarkozy's campaign slogan and Socialists' political behaviour are exactly the same: "Ensemble, tout devient possible"....

[big bad fab]

Somebody close to her said she may be a candidate.... so, she'll be if there isn't outrageous reactions until tomorrow night.

BUT a war inside the PS is now quite sure.

[big bad fab]

What a surprise.... Here are the results from about 99% of ballots:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/vote-motions.pdf

I haven't enough time yet to make maps or to analyze these, but Hashemite...
One interesting thing to do would be to compare these results with the socialist primary of late 2006, but also with internal elections in 1994 and 1995, especially the Fabius motion and the "no" vote (in socialist internal elction) on the European referendum.

An important thing is to see if Aubry, today is just Fabius plus Nord-Pas-de-Calais plus a little bit else, or if she's a real base apart from that.

I still think she has an opportunity to win beacause Delanoë is now too weak and she can be the anti-Royal solution.
Still she hasn't a strong base inside the party, but nobody underlines it.
Fabius and DSK are not very careful to let her come to the front, if they really have presidential plans of course.

[big bad fab]

Wonderful !

It will be interesting to compare it to this one, from PGSable, in the gallery:



Sure, Fabius in blue, it's clear.
Hollande in red, more difficult, beacuse Royal, Delanoë and Aubry are taking different regions now.
The "Nouveau PS", then in green, is now torn apart between Hamon, Royal (Dray and Peillon) and Aubry (Montebourg).
And in the Essonne department, Dray is for Royal but Mélenchon was for Hamon....!

And maybe, it would be fine to compare it to a map with the "no" and "yes" votes in PS internal ballot in 2004, on the EU referendum. Have you one ?

[big bad fab]

Congratulations, Hashemite !

What can we see ?

Just strongholds around their feudal leaders....

These maps is not sociological (PGSable, please, NO diagonale du vide in this case: Haute-Marne, Cher, Indre, Nièvre, Corrèze, Lot aren't really good results for Hamon and Manche, Calvados, Somme, Essonne, Loire, Pyrénée Atlantiques are NOT part of this diagonale; besides, even the west of Aube is now more a remote suburb of Paris rather than part of diagonale du vide), nor really ideological.

These maps are just an image of the PS fragmentation around small, less small and smaller leaders....
Fascinating !

Royal nowadays is: Royal (Poitou-Charentes) + Rebsamen (Côte d'Or) + Peillon (Somme; was on NPS, motion 3 in 2005) + Guérini (Bouches-du-Rhône, Var, Alpes Maritimes) + Collomb (Rhône) + Bianco (Alpes de Haute Provence). Even little new baronets like Guillaume Garot (new mayor of Laval and new supporter of Royal) delivered Mayenne for her.
Hérault's fédération is a bit troubled, with former big mayor of Montpellier Georges Frèche expelled from the PS. But she won handily Hérault.

Aubry is: Fabius (Seine-Maritime, Eure, Calvados, Oise, Indre, Cher, Vosges, Haute-Corse, Pyrénées Orientales, Seine-Saint-Denis with Fabius closest lieutenant, Claude Bartolone, new president of the conseil général) + Mauroy-Aubry lands in Nord-Pas-de-Calais + Montebourg (Saône et Loire; was NPS, motion 3 back in '05).
Gironde is a surprise because it was fabiusian for a long time.
Note that in Finistère, Aubry did less bad than in the rest of Bretagne as Marylise Lebranchu, former mayor of Morlaix, is a close supporter.

Hamon is: the left of the party... Emmanuelli (Landes, Pyrénées Atlantiques), Manche, Aube, Creuse and Essonne (with Lienemann and Mélenchon, who has just left the party).

Delanoë is: Hollande (Corrèze, Haute-Vienne, Cantal), Moscovici (Doubs, Territoire-de-Belfort), the remnants of Jospin and DSK strongholds (Ariège, Vaucluse, Paris, Val-de-Marne, Val-d'Oise) and Rocard strongholds (Bretagne, Bas-Rhin, Franche-Comté).
Haute-Garonne is a surprise: as former Jospin's second base, it should have been better for Delanoë.

This shows us that Aubry, who may well end as the new leader of the PS, as the candidate of an anti-Royal majority, is in fact not very strong....
This shows us that Delanoë hasn't real strong bases, apart from Hollande's ones.

Tonight, Royal didn't say if she will be candidate.

Each leader is trying not to say many things and to let the others fail or make a mistake, just not to be regarded as the big murderer or trouble-maker....
To be continued!

[big bad fab]

No idea for Aude department: in this federation, there is never a clear leader, so I'm not very competent on this one.

Sure, Eure is a bit low for Fabius, but maybe François Loncle is a bit old now and is rejected by some. Maybe there are new members who are more in favor of Royal (just a guess).

[big bad fab]

This is war.

The problem is now: who will fight against Royal ?
Aubry would win, but Hamon want to go. And he won't necessarily win: he is really on the left.

As Delanoë is stupidly outsiding himself more and more, Aubry should run, as she will be able to win next Thursday when PS members will vote again, this time for first secretary.

A congress for nothing....

If Royal wins, she won't have a majority in national and executive committees...
If Aubry doesn't make mistakes, she may be able to take the party and she would be a real fighter against Sarkozy.
And the French MSM, which want a woman (we don't have an Obama in France...), would find in Aubry a "reasonable" and seirous woman (unlike Royal). Aubry would be the only dangerous PS candidate for Sarkozy.

[big bad fab]

A waste of time for the PS, sure !

From an UMP viewpoint, a very delightful time....

Hamon will maintain his candidacy, Royal too.
If Aubry is candidate, she may win the popular vote with a plurality, maybe the worst situation for the PS...

Let's say turnout is bigger (65%).
Hamon wouldn't benefit from it, but he may have energized his base and some fabiusians might vote for him rather than for Aubry, because a weak and leftist leader may allow Fabius to be seen, in 2011, as a good solution for 2012.
So, Hamon would take 18%.

Some voters from Delanoë's motion would vote for Royal because they are real reformists, but this motion was already at a low level and should have gathered all the "establishment" and tradiytional members.

Royal would grasp two thirds of the new voters, I think.

So, Royal would win about 38% and Aubry 44%.

We'll see. I can't imagine now that there is only one anti-Royal candidate (Hamon).
As Delanoë doesn't want to be beaten again, Aubry has a good opportunity to take his supporters without being tied to him and Hollande in a new motion, mixed between their former ones.

Be prepared for some bitter years in the PS !

[big bad fab]

Please remember that my political predictions are always wrong when it's tie or suspenseful !

But I keep on making predictions....

I keep 44% for Aubry but I would put Royal rather at 40% and Hamon at 16%.

Only 55% of PS members voted for the motions.  More will vote on Thursday and it will be good for Royal.
But Aubry has very well manoeuvered, politically speaking. She comes from nothing and she is in a central location.
Her problem is that the vote is already on Thursday. Should he have more time, her victory would be likelier.

[big bad fab]

Listen to that: on Thursday night, if none of the 3 candidates gather more than 50%, there will be a run-off !!!
I thought it would be a first-past-the-vote. I hadn't even imagined they had build a system like this one....

I still put Aubry ahead, but without an outrgiht majority (44-40-16).

In a run-off, Aubry would win 53-47 against Royal.

But, many PS members may be fed up and elect Hamon. Or Royal would rally again "new" members, "supporters", as in late 2006 when she won the primary race.

The "renouvellement", the rejuvenating of the party is a popular theme, so Aubry may lose. But if the political logic is followed, she should win.

A fascinating race, anyway.

[big bad fab]

Not yet complete results by federations for the first round.

From Libération.fr:

A quelques exceptions près, Ségolène Royal remporte en région des scores similaires à son résultat national. Revue de détail.

En région Centre, les résultats sont la photocopie conforme du score national: Royal en tête avec 42,22% des suffrages, suivie par Martine Aubry (34,70%) et Benoît Hamon (23,04%).

Dans l'Est, en Moselle, Royal arrive largement en tête avec 820 voix des militants dans le département (56,75 %), contre 375 à Martine Aubry et 267 à Benoit Hamon.
Idem dans le Bas-Rhin: Ségolène Royal remporte 42,5 % des suffrages (386 voix). Martine Aubry suit, avec 43 voix de retard (37,78 %), et Benoit Hamon obtient 179 voix (19,71 %).

Dans le Rhône, fédération de Gérard Collomb, premier signataire de sa motion, Ségolène Royal devient majoritaire. La présidente de Poitou-Charente a réuni hier soir 50,65% des suffrages, soit 22 points de plus que sa seconde, Martine Aubry (28,57%). Celle-ci partait cependant de loin et a bénéficié d'assez bons reports des partisans de Bertrand Delanoë.

Martine Aubry, maire de Lille, arrive d'ailleurs première dans le Nord avec 62,5% des suffrages (sa motion totalisait 58% des suffrages le 6 novembre). Benoît Hamon progresse de trois points. Ségolène Royal, elle, double carrément son score (elle était à 10,39%).

En Aquitaine, Ségolène Royal fait le plein dans quatre départements sur cinq. La Gironde ne sort pas du rang et a bien suivi la tendance nationale en respectant l’ordre du trio. Ségolène Royal est donc en tête, avec 43% des voix. Mais elle marque ici son avance face à Martine Aubry qui n’affiche que 29% des suffrages, au coude à coude avec Benoît Hamon, fort de 26%. Ce dernier arrive en tête dans les Landes.

Dans les Bouches-du-Rhône, les militants ont voté en masse pour Royal, suivant le choix de leur leader départemental Jean-Noël Guérini. Elle remporte 69% des voix, Aubry est loin derrière avec autour de 20%. La maire de Lille, qui avait fait 9,2% le 6 novembre, a semble-t-il récupéré les 9,3% de Bertrand Delanoë. Quant à Benoit Hamon, il réalise autour de 10%, améliorant son score du 6 novembre (6,6%).

En Bretagne, enfin, Royal est nettement en tête: après avoir voté pour la motion de Bertrand Delanoé pour le congrès de Reims, la majorité des militants socialistes bretons ont reporté leurs voix sur Ségolène Royal. L'ex-candidate aux présidentielles réalise son meilleur score dans le Morbihan avec 52,7% des voix devant Benoît Hamon, 25,6%, et Martine Aubry, 22,7%. Les scores sont plus serrés dans le Finistère où la présidente de la région Poitou-Charente réunit quand même 40% des votants sur son nom, devant Martine Aubry, 35%, et le Brestois Benoît Hamon, 25%.

And for the run-off, it seems as if I'm completely xrong in my predictions.... AGAIN !

It's a rule: when I make a prediction, just take the opposite... and you're sure to be right....

But let's wait a bit.

[big bad fab]

Maybe next week....
The MSM won't be interested in it, as usual.... And, for the moitions, it take more than 10 days for the PS to publish them on their site....

Hard to be a political junkie !

[big bad fab]

Aubry's campaign has just claimed victory.

Something between 50,2 and 50,4.
They seem to have only a 1000-vote lead, but it's without Nord (of course an Aubry stronghold) and Guadeloupe.

Be careful: it's Claude Bartolone, Fabius' lieutenant and well known for its spinning practices...

But a good sign is that Royal's aides are quiet now.... Rebsamen and Peillon).

[big bad fab]

Aubry's camp says 50,5.

But Royal's camp is not conceding.... David Assouline (former Trotskyite turned... royaliste!) seems to be very angry.
Royal's camp find weird that they didn't make progress in Seine-MAritime and Nord....
(But Aubry's camp may fight back by pointing at weird results in Hérault and Bouches-du-Rhône...)

Will they fight over the results ?
There isn't an electoral "judge" inside the PS: they need to all agree....

Wow. That couldn't have been worse for the PS.
With a 58% win, that would have been a "great victory for inner democracy".
Now, that's just a nasty fight and rancorous feelings for years....

You can imagine that I'm happy.
But, wait, that could be good for far-left Besancenot and big-ego Bayrou. So, the UMP should think twice: it's not so good to have the main opposition in tatters.

[big bad fab]

Manuel Valls, Royal's supporter, has said that Royal's campaign "won't let them steal the victory".....

OMG, it's Florida '00 or Washington gov. '04 !!

[big bad fab]

Aubry's lead might be around 140 votes now !!

Sure, Coleman-Franken is better in terms of tightness, but the French Socialist Party isn't far behind....

It's 1:45 a.m. in France and the PS seems to be engulfed in a very bitter fight.

Valls has spoken with Bianco, Royal's chief of staff, Gaëtan Gorce, Aurélie Filipettiand he has referred to Vincent Peillon (who was inside the PS siege at the time): just to show that it's all the Royal campaign which is contesting the result.

[big bad fab]

Recount!

And now, one Hollande's aide talks about a 40 or 50 votes lead for Martine Aubry...

A source inside the PS has just said that Royal is negotiating with Aubry an appointment of Vincent Peillon as n°2....

EDIT: the current staff of the PS isn't able to make an official announcement because it's "extremely tight".
So, tomorrow and maybe for some days, the first secretary may be....François Hollande as caretaker !

Valls has said Royal's victory is "unavoidable".
Very disappointing to see Valls behave like one old apparatchiki or one of worst spin doctors.

Valls next Sarkozy's Housing and Urban affairs minister ?

[big bad fab]

Daniel Vaillant, an old jospinist apparatchik (and former Home Minister), who was chosen to announce official results tonight, has said it's too close to call.

I'm going to sleep a bit, it's 2:45 am here.
One more election which is still not called when I go to bed. Fed up of this.

[big bad fab]

"Official" results (i.e. national results announced by the present leadership, still to be validated):

Aubry 67 413 (50,02%)
Royal 67 371 (49,98%)
total suffrages exprimés 134 784

blancs et nuls 2 332

Total votes: 137 116

Royal wants to fight ("je ne vais pas me laisser faire"). She wants a new ballott on Thursday. Her political counsellor and public/personal lawyer (and former personal friend of Hollande...), Jean-Pierre Mignard, theatens to put the case in front of a public law judge ("tribunal administratif").
As I have said before, there are not any rule in the PS to solve this case, when candidates do not unanimously agree on results....

Hollande says a national committee (elected during the recent congress, based on percentages obtaines by the motions, so with "royalistes" with slightly more than 29%... so, she is not strong in this committee, even if some members from Delanoë or Hamon or Utopia or ecolo motions could gather with her supporters) will validate results on Wednesday.

Aubry rejects a new ballott and says Hollande agrees on that.

That couldn't have been worse for the PS
That couldn't have been better for Sarkozy (and Bayrou and Besancenot).
That could'nt have been funnier for political junkies.