The State of Florida is a real b*tch to poll :(

[The Vorlon]

A quick note on polls in Florida.

Polling in any state involves uncertainties, but any discussion of the state of Florida needs to be prefixed by the fact Florida may (IMHO) be the hardest state in the nation to poll accurately.

In the 2004 Real Clear Politics averages, the average of the last 9 polls had Bush winning the state by just 0.6%, while in reality he carried the state by just a hair over 5% - Indeed only a single pollster (Quinnipiac in this case) overpolled Bush (They had him +8) - every single other pollster underpolled the GOP Candidate.

To be fair, Mason Dixon (Bush +4) and Rasmussen (Bush +3) had excellent results, but there were a lot of real disasters for polls.  FoxNews had Kerry winning by 5%, Gallup had Kerry winning by 3%, ARRRRG had Kerry up by 2%,....

Lots of folks had egg on their faces..

The reasons Florida is a tough state to poll are many, here are just a few:

Florida has a very high hispanic/Cuban population - A lot of firms don't bother with the expense of Spanish speaking operators.

Florida has a very large illegal immigrant population, you need to involve some sampling models based on census/ins estimates to correct for those who answer the phone but can't vote.

Snowbirds - Many who live in Florida also live in another State/Country.. Can a person actually vote in Florida...?

Felons can't vote - At least in theory those with a felony conviction can't vote in Florida elections according to state law.  This disproportionately impacts the African American community.  This law is either utterly ignored or zealfully enforced depending on which party controls a particular County's Election Commission.  You just about have to do turnout models on a County by County basis...

EDIT - Lunar informed me the Felon law has changed - Thanks Lunar!

Florida has a high proportion of persons of the Jewish faith - many of whom decline outside contact via telephone during certain religious observances - making it often hard to get a good sample depending on the timing of your poll....

We won't even get into polling during hurricane evacuations and cleanup efforts....

When looking at Florida polls, be really careful - a firm without a lot of experience in the State can lay some really bad eggs pretty easily....

[Lunar]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-04-05-florida-felons-voting_N.htm

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — Most Florida felons will regain voting and other civil rights more quickly after completing their sentences under changes approved Thursday by the governor and the state clemency board.

Republican Gov. Charlie Crist pushed the change, saying the rights to vote, hold office and serve on a jury were fundamental to being part of a democratic society.

With 3-1 vote by Crist and the other members of the state's clemency board, state officials will begin the restoration process for felons once they complete their sentences. Previously, many felons needed to go before the board, which can take years to hear a case because of backlogs.

Edit: More up-to-date and meandering article: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/14/us/politics/14felony.html?em

[The Vorlon]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-04-05-florida-felons-voting_N.htm

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — Most Florida felons will regain voting and other civil rights more quickly after completing their sentences under changes approved Thursday by the governor and the state clemency board.

Republican Gov. Charlie Crist pushed the change, saying the rights to vote, hold office and serve on a jury were fundamental to being part of a democratic society.

With 3-1 vote by Crist and the other members of the state's clemency board, state officials will begin the restoration process for felons once they complete their sentences. Previously, many felons needed to go before the board, which can take years to hear a case because of backlogs.

Edit: More up-to-date and meandering article: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/14/us/politics/14felony.html?em

I did not know that! - I am isolated up here in Canada and was not aware of that change! - Thanks for the update.

[Lunar]

It's not an immediate restoration of rights, but the can jump through some hoops and regain them.  Virginia is the other notable state.  Also: Doesn't Florida have a large amount of growth, meaning it's slightly harder to compare results against the latest census for accuracy?

So, how likely is it that the underpolling favors McCain versus the flip-side.  Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon actually tend to favor Obama significantly more than the other firms in this state while in the past two elections it's been the opposite!  One of big points you perhaps missed about the Bush-underpolling is that the GOP organization machine in Florida was [is?] possibly the best in the country and a model foro other states to follow.  Their GOTV, voter suppression (), and so on were/are all top notch.

I'm reading this WaPo article on Florida, which casts a much more somber note on the state than David Plouffe does, haha. 

[The Vorlon]

Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon actually tend to favor Obama significantly more than the other firms in this state while in the past two elections it's been the opposite! 

A bit of an issue here is the way M/D and Rasmussen screen for likely voters.  Both screen based upon past voting patterns but also upon levels of voter interest, voter enthusiasm for the candidate, etc..  Given the energetic nature of Mr. Obama's support, both of these pollsters will at least early on be a bit more Obama friendly than they may be later on as the less than rabid political types actually tune in.

One of big points you perhaps missed about the Bush-underpolling is that the GOP organization machine in Florida was [is?] possibly the best in the country and a model for other states to follow.  Their GOTV, voter suppression (), and so on were/are all top notch.

One party's "suppression" in another party's "protecting the integrity of the election"

I tend to think in a close election McCain will take Florida - McCain is old, Florida has a lot of old folks. The older demographic is also the most reliable in terms of actually voting.

[Sam Spade]

So, in 2004, you said Florida would be Bush +5 from the point when I got to this forum to the end.  I tended to agree, so we both won out. 

How would you call it this year?

[Lunar]

Indeed, and exit polls show that the State of Florida votes more on "foreign policy" than most [all?] swing states.  Something tells me that these aren't the voters that love Obama's plan to meet with Castro and Ahmadinejad.

But Obama's aids have quietly hinted towards Florida being more winnable than Ohio, and Plouffe has indicated that Florida is the most important state in a recent fundraising video to supporters.

With Obama's hypothetically superior enthusiasm (article claims 100k Florida volunteers) and organization, and Florida's gigantic relative population, they might think they can push the margins around than in other states.  Their propaganda often points towards the something around 1.3 million registered African-Americans and young people that didn't vote in 2004.  I'm not making an endorsement of these claims.

From the WaPo article:

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So, my question is not who it will go to in a 50/50 election, but whether it might have a more fluid electorate that can get pushed around more by a monster of a machine than say, Ohio, the other big prize.

[The Vorlon]

So, in 2004, you said Florida would be Bush +5 from the point when I got to this forum to the end.  I tended to agree, so we both won out. 

How would you call it this year?

Yes, I took alot of $%^# over Florida in 2004 - I had Bush up semi solid the whole way.

I think Florida will be about 5% better for McCain than his national average in the end.

[Sam Spade]

So, in 2004, you said Florida would be Bush +5 from the point when I got to this forum to the end.  I tended to agree, so we both won out. 

How would you call it this year?

Yes, I took alot of $%^# over Florida in 2004 - I had Bush up semi solid the whole way.

I think Florida will be about 5% better for McCain than his national average in the end.

Well, I personally have it at 4% + the national average, after having it at 5% pre-convention, so hearing it from you makes me feel more confident that I have a good feel on the state.

Not that Obama shouldn't be campaigning in Florida, in the same way McCain should be campaigning in Michigan and Pennsylvania also, I just think Obama's chances are better in Ohio, even with some of the questionable voters there. 

After all, if either FL or OH go to Obama, he almost assuredly wins and if either MI or PA go to McCain, he almost assuredly wins. 

[JohnCA246]

Hats off to Christ for amending that law.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Hats off to Christ for amending that law.

Freudian slip?

[JohnCA246]

LOL! wow, that was quite a slip. 

[Lunar]

Hats off to Christ for amending that law.

Freudian slip?

That was always one of my stated perks for a McCain/Crist ticket.  It has a sort of subtle implications about Obama's own religion.  Alas, some things were not meant to be.

[??????????]

Hats off to Crist for amending that law.

Another mark against ole Charlie.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Hats off to Crist for amending that law.

Another mark against ole Charlie.

While I have no objection to felons being denied the vote while incarcerated, I can't see a reason to continue denying them the right to vote after they have repaid their debt to society.

[??????????]

Hats off to Crist for amending that law.

Another mark against ole Charlie.

While I have no objection to felons being denied the vote while incarcerated, I can't see a reason to continue denying them the right to vote after they have repaid their debt to society.

They always had the right to have their rights restored. Losing their rights wasn't permanent if the proper paperwork was filed.

[Franzl]

Hats off to Crist for amending that law.

Another mark against ole Charlie.

While I have no objection to felons being denied the vote while incarcerated, I can't see a reason to continue denying them the right to vote after they have repaid their debt to society.

They always had the right to have their rights restored. Losing their rights wasn't permanent if the proper paperwork was filed.

still, why make it unnecessarily complicated?

[Brittain33]

Hats off to Crist for amending that law.

Another mark against ole Charlie.

While I have no objection to felons being denied the vote while incarcerated, I can't see a reason to continue denying them the right to vote after they have repaid their debt to society.

They always had the right to have their rights restored. Losing their rights wasn't permanent if the proper paperwork was filed.

still, why make it unnecessarily complicated?

Because they might vote Democratic.

[Franzl]

Hats off to Crist for amending that law.

Another mark against ole Charlie.

While I have no objection to felons being denied the vote while incarcerated, I can't see a reason to continue denying them the right to vote after they have repaid their debt to society.

They always had the right to have their rights restored. Losing their rights wasn't permanent if the proper paperwork was filed.

still, why make it unnecessarily complicated?

Because they might vote Democratic.

I was hoping for that answer!

[Brittain33]

I was hoping for that answer!

Pretending to care about whatever other b.s. answer is supplied is above my pay grade.

[??????????]

I was hoping for that answer!

Pretending to care about whatever other b.s. answer is supplied is above my pay grade.

Yep, and that's why your a waste of breath to talk to and an ignorant ass. To be fair.