MI: WXYZ/Detroit News: Obama leads McCain by 1%

[mypalfish]

(WXYZ) - Michigan voters are weighing in on the race for the White House. The latest results are in from an exclusive WXYZ-TV/Detroit News poll which shows that the presidential race is extremely tight. Experts say it could all come down to Michigan in this historic election.

The exclusive poll shows the race getting even closer, with Barack Obama leading John McCain 43% to 42% with a 4 point margin of error. When Michigan voters were asked to consider both tickets, now that both running mates have been chosen, Obama’s lead jumps slightly to 45% compared to McCain’s 42%.

For the first time, our exclusive poll is showing how Michigan voters feel about McCain’s Vice Presidential Pick, Sarah Palin. When asked if Sarah Palin should John McCain not be able to serve out his term, 43% of Michigan voters polled said yes compared to 47% who said no.

According to the poll, an overwhelming 73% of voters are convinced that the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction, while 80% believe Michigan is on the wrong track.
Three issues concern Michigan voters the most, according to latest poll results. The economy is at the top of the list, followed by protecting America from terrorism and health care.

http://www.wxyz.com/content/news/2008vote/story.aspx?content_id=b303a3ea-29d8-4e31-87b3-4f20046f9aa9

[Sam Spade]

This is the EPIC-MRA poll.

[Eraserhead]

So he actually leads by 3%...

[Nym90]

So he actually leads by 3%...

So much for Palin being a big boost to the ticket.

[Ronnie]

When was this poll taken?  If it was taken recently, it's saying that Michigan is right at the national average (which is obviously great news for McCain).

[Eraserhead]

When was this poll taken?  If it was taken recently, it's saying that Michigan is right at the national average (which is obviously great news for McCain).

Well you would also have to assume the poll is accurate.

[Ronnie]

When was this poll taken?  If it was taken recently, it's saying that Michigan is right at the national average (which is obviously great news for McCain).

Well you would also have to assume the poll is accurate.

EPIC-MRA has a pretty good track record from what I've heard.  Obviously, I can't be optimistic.

[mypalfish]

So he actually leads by 3%...

So much for Palin being a big boost to the ticket.

some states, yes....some states, no.

IMO, McCain isn't anywhere close to Obama if he hadn't picked Palin.  He's still going to lose, but at least he made it competitive for a while.  And getting the base more enthused might keep the losses down in the House.

The only odd thing is that in SE Wisconsin, in some of the working class Milwaukee areas where you saw house after house after house with Gore/Lieberman and Kerry/Edwards signs, there are hardly any Obama signs.  I know it probably doesn't mean anything, but maybe Obama really will struggle with those white working class voters and it will keep the margin down.

[Ronnie]

So he actually leads by 3%...

So much for Palin being a big boost to the ticket.

IMO, McCain isn't anywhere close to Obama if he hadn't picked Palin.  He's still going to lose, but at least he made it competitive for a while.  And getting the base more enthused might keep the losses down in the House.

I haven't agreed with someone more in my life.  Thank you for that analysis that I have been struggling to put into words.

[Nym90]

So he actually leads by 3%...

So much for Palin being a big boost to the ticket.

some states, yes....some states, no.

IMO, McCain isn't anywhere close to Obama if he hadn't picked Palin.  He's still going to lose, but at least he made it competitive for a while.  And getting the base more enthused might keep the losses down in the House.

The only odd thing is that in SE Wisconsin, in some of the working class Milwaukee areas where you saw house after house after house with Gore/Lieberman and Kerry/Edwards signs, there are hardly any Obama signs.  I know it probably doesn't mean anything, but maybe Obama really will struggle with those white working class voters and it will keep the margin down.

True. Hard to say what the lack of signs means, though. Could actually be a "reverse Bradley effect" in highly racially polarized neighborhoods, where people are afraid to admit they are supporting the black guy. We'll see.

The fact that Obama does better when the running mates are mentioned in this poll is definitely evidence that the assertion advanced by some that Palin was a brilliant pick while Biden was a horrible one might not be so accurate, though.

[J. J.]

True. Hard to say what the lack of signs means, though. Could actually be a "reverse Bradley effect" in highly racially polarized neighborhoods, where people are afraid to admit they are supporting the black guy. We'll see.

Signs and crowd size will go into J. J. 3rd Rule, but I have a question.  If the Democratic neighborhood is that polarized, why would it be that good for Obama?

[Lief 🗽]

Signs really don't mean anything. The Obama campaign volunteers and staffers have better things to do than hand out signs.

[J. J.]

Signs really don't mean anything. The Obama campaign volunteers and staffers have better things to do than hand out signs.

J. J.'s Third Rule of Elections:  Supposed indicators, crowd size, signs and bumper stickers, letters to the editor, are meaningless in terms of actual voter support, though might be an indicator of campaign organization.

[The Vorlon]

I keep saying this, but I will say it again.  The Detroit News is a right wing rag.  They take polls on a couple of weekday nights when Democrats are at work in the shops and republican auto executives and farmers are home resting and answering the phone.  I don't know about this poll of theirs, but they usually have a republican sample that is a larger % than the number of republicans likely to vote.  In 2004 they had Bush up a couple.  Nuff said.

Actually... as a point of fact the last EPIC/MRI poll in 2004 had Kerry up by 6% - The actual result was Kerry + 3.5%

I believe you may have your newspapers mixed up.

The Detroit Free Press had a poll in the later stages of 2004 showing Mr. Bush up by 2% - Other than a few polls many many months before the actual 2004 vote, I believe this was the only poll in 2004 to ever show Bush with a lead in Michigan.

Rasmussen may have had the race tied at one point, although his final poll had Kerry up by 4% which turned out to be pretty much dead on.

[Gustaf]

So he actually leads by 3%...

So much for Palin being a big boost to the ticket.

some states, yes....some states, no.

IMO, McCain isn't anywhere close to Obama if he hadn't picked Palin.  He's still going to lose, but at least he made it competitive for a while.  And getting the base more enthused might keep the losses down in the House.

The only odd thing is that in SE Wisconsin, in some of the working class Milwaukee areas where you saw house after house after house with Gore/Lieberman and Kerry/Edwards signs, there are hardly any Obama signs.  I know it probably doesn't mean anything, but maybe Obama really will struggle with those white working class voters and it will keep the margin down.

True. Hard to say what the lack of signs means, though. Could actually be a "reverse Bradley effect" in highly racially polarized neighborhoods, where people are afraid to admit they are supporting the black guy. We'll see.

The fact that Obama does better when the running mates are mentioned in this poll is definitely evidence that the assertion advanced by some that Palin was a brilliant pick while Biden was a horrible one might not be so accurate, though.

Only one poll though. The general trend still seems to be in McCain's favour.