Rasmussen South Carolina: McCain by 6
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  Rasmussen South Carolina: McCain by 6
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Author Topic: Rasmussen South Carolina: McCain by 6  (Read 884 times)
Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« on: September 20, 2008, 09:20:01 AM »

SC
McCain 51%
Obama 45%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/south_carolina/election_2008_south_carolina_presidential_election
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2008, 09:22:04 AM »

Seems about right; maybe give another 2-3 points to McCain.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2008, 09:30:44 AM »

The South Carolina survey was conducted on Thursday night. Several state polls conducted that evening showed very positive results for Barack Obama and it was one of his best recent nights in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll. It remains to be seen whether this was a temporary blip in the race or the beginning of a new trend leading to a significant advantage for Obama.

Which fits with the numbers you're giving us on the daily tracking poll.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2008, 09:50:54 AM »

Well it must have been just a blip, because McCain won last night on the tracker.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2008, 10:00:59 AM »

Well it must have been just a blip, because McCain won last night on the tracker.

We don't know that yet.  You have to be patient and wait at least until Monday because today's sample could be the blip, not the ones around it.

I should note that I was doing my race calculations again, and they confirm to me that the poll is most likely a slight outlier.  What's a little odd is that, in comparison to the states around it (Georgia for example), SC black population is actually declining slightly.  Also, at least according to the exit poll, turnout was pretty good in 2004 (29.0% black, 30% turnout).
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2008, 01:35:16 PM »

About as I 'd expect.   The sole reason I have SC as a Lean instead of Strong is that the margin will be in the 5 to 10% range, but I don't expect the campaign to change that one way or the other.  Too few swing voters, especially with the current candidates.
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KeyKeeper
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« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2008, 01:41:18 PM »

Last time Rasmussen polled SC it was 9% for McCain, they very next day Rasmussen put out a poll that showed NC for 2% for McCain. If SC and NC margin of different hasn't changed that means Sen. Obama should be up by 1% in NC.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2008, 12:36:10 PM »

I have a hard time believing this poll from Rasmussen out of SC. Firstly, Graham by only 9 over Conley is pretty silly. Second, if McCain gets 89% of Republicans and leads Independents by 10%, I can't imagine he only leads the state by 6%. Obama's absolute ceiling here in 44% in November. He'll drive up black turnout but lose the remaining rural white Dixie Crat vote that Clinton and Kerry got.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2008, 06:17:26 PM »

What remaining Dixiecrat vote?
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2008, 08:27:00 PM »

In the upstate. There are some Democrats in the upstate who still vote for the Democrats. My grandfather's sister in law in one of them. They have voted Democrat their entire lives until this election, which they probably just won't vote.
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