Rasmussen South Carolina: McCain by 6 (user search)
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  Rasmussen South Carolina: McCain by 6 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Rasmussen South Carolina: McCain by 6  (Read 895 times)
Sam Spade
SamSpade
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« on: September 20, 2008, 09:30:44 AM »

The South Carolina survey was conducted on Thursday night. Several state polls conducted that evening showed very positive results for Barack Obama and it was one of his best recent nights in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll. It remains to be seen whether this was a temporary blip in the race or the beginning of a new trend leading to a significant advantage for Obama.

Which fits with the numbers you're giving us on the daily tracking poll.
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Sam Spade
SamSpade
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2008, 10:00:59 AM »

Well it must have been just a blip, because McCain won last night on the tracker.

We don't know that yet.  You have to be patient and wait at least until Monday because today's sample could be the blip, not the ones around it.

I should note that I was doing my race calculations again, and they confirm to me that the poll is most likely a slight outlier.  What's a little odd is that, in comparison to the states around it (Georgia for example), SC black population is actually declining slightly.  Also, at least according to the exit poll, turnout was pretty good in 2004 (29.0% black, 30% turnout).
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