agcatter
YaBB God
Posts: 3,740
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« on: September 19, 2008, 07:19:18 PM » |
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I think it will be something like 60 - 39. I expect black turnout to increase a bit throughout the South. Obama will get the same percentage of white vote as Kerry - no more no less and with black voter turnout up a notch, McCain doesn't reach the 62 or 63 percent that Bush garnered.
I'd say it will be the same effect as we will see in Mississippi, Georgia, and South Carolina. Not so in Louisiana simply because there aren't as many blacks in that state post Katrina. I think those bottom line numbers stay the same as in 2004.
Just my humble opinion. Doesn't matter of course as none of those states flip, but gives us political junkies something to chew on.
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