538 On the Cell Effect (We keep hitting controversial polling topics, haha)

[Sbane]

The cell phone effect doesn't happen mainly because the difference in voting between landline youngs and cell phone youngs is minimal. It's not as if only conservative younguns have landlines and only liberals have cell phones. It just depends from person to person and I doubt it is political.

But it results in the young vote being undersampled.

I don't really see the young vote being undersampled. Most voters make sure they have an appropriate amount of youngs in their sample. The real question is whether landline youngs vote differently than cell phone youngs. I say the answer is no.

[Alcon]

I don't really see the young vote being undersampled. Most voters make sure they have an appropriate amount of youngs in their sample. The real question is whether landline youngs vote differently than cell phone youngs. I say the answer is no.

Probably not radically different, but I'd wager more likely to be urban and much more likely to be college students or college-educated.  In the meantime, though, I think we're dealing with a relatively minor demographic issue.

[Sam Spade]

It would seem to me the question is not if cell phone users vote differently, but rather do they differ from non-cell phone users of similar demographics charateristics.

There is no doubt that the 21 year old cell phone only demographic is substantially different than the 47 year old land land owning demographic, but that is not the question..

Pollsters already ensure that young people are appropriately represented in the sample, and that their income, education, etc matches the totality of their demorgraphic -the isolated variable here is just the cell phones, not age, income, education, etc...

IE is the totality of 23 year old males with just a cell phone intending to vote differently that the totality of 23 year old males who may also have a landline?

Gallup BTW is trying to isolate this by doing calls to cell phone exchanges and then askng as one of the screening questions if the cell phone user is cell phone only.. this way they can build up a database on cell phone only users versus cell phone + land line users.

The next issue is VOIP users... but that is another ball of wax

Thank you for saying what I was trying to say in so much more of a sophisticated way.  

[Verily]

The cell phone effect doesn't happen mainly because the difference in voting between landline youngs and cell phone youngs is minimal. It's not as if only conservative younguns have landlines and only liberals have cell phones. It just depends from person to person and I doubt it is political.

But it results in the young vote being undersampled.

I don't really see the young vote being undersampled. Most voters make sure they have an appropriate amount of youngs in their sample. The real question is whether landline youngs vote differently than cell phone youngs. I say the answer is no.

Please don't use "youngs". We already have a word, "youth", which conveys exactly what this opeboism purports to mean.

[J. J.]

I'm going to say something a bit controversial.   Where cell phone use might make a difference is in GOTV, but not in polling.

[Gustaf]

Only if young cell phone only users increase their turnout while no one else does. Or, I guess, if the pollster is completely clueless when it comes to weighting.

It's not a relative increase in turnout, but a relative increase in the demographic size, probably combined with a more Democratic result among them than previously.

I'm not following. I thought the population was getting older, rather than younger? And that a good turnout model would factor in those things?

[Sbane]

The cell phone effect doesn't happen mainly because the difference in voting between landline youngs and cell phone youngs is minimal. It's not as if only conservative younguns have landlines and only liberals have cell phones. It just depends from person to person and I doubt it is political.

But it results in the young vote being undersampled.

I don't really see the young vote being undersampled. Most voters make sure they have an appropriate amount of youngs in their sample. The real question is whether landline youngs vote differently than cell phone youngs. I say the answer is no.

Please don't use "youngs". We already have a word, "youth", which conveys exactly what this opeboism purports to mean.

Haha aite.

[they don't love you like i love you]

The cell phone effect doesn't happen mainly because the difference in voting between landline youngs and cell phone youngs is minimal. It's not as if only conservative younguns have landlines and only liberals have cell phones. It just depends from person to person and I doubt it is political.

But it results in the young vote being undersampled.

I don't really see the young vote being undersampled. Most voters make sure they have an appropriate amount of youngs in their sample. The real question is whether landline youngs vote differently than cell phone youngs. I say the answer is no.

Please don't use "youngs". We already have a word, "youth", which conveys exactly what this opeboism purports to mean.

Most opeboisms already have words or terms for them otherwise, just that opebo's way is much cooler.

[Lunar]

It would seem to me the question is not if cell phone users vote differently, but rather do they differ from non-cell phone users of similar demographic charateristics.

There is no doubt that the 21 year old cell phone only demographic is substantially different than the 47 year old land land owning demographic, but that is not the question..

Pollsters already ensure that young people are appropriately represented in the sample, and that their income, education, etc matches the totality of their demorgraphic -the isolated variable here is just the cell phones, not age, income, education, etc...

IE is the totality of 23 year old males with just a cell phone intending to vote differently that the totality of 23 year old males who may also have a landline?

Well, I imagine the demographics of cell-only users are disproportionately:
a) College students
b) Wealthy
c) Technologically savvy/hip

One would imagine that this year, far more than other years, these demographic descriptors are part of the Democratic base.  I would say that results WOULD differ from the population as a whole.  FivetThirtyEight, in the original article, claims that seven out of eight cell-only users have a favorable opinion of Obama, but I don't know how they got that statistic.

However, even if voting cell-only users are 10% more Democratic than youngin's in general, that's not really significant enough to affect the vote, assuming the pollster weights by age groups. 

[rockhound]

[/quote]

Indeed, and never before have young, educated voters been so enthusiastic.

But Sam's right, which is why I didn't endorse 538's analysis.


[/quote]

Too young to have heard of George McGovern I guess.

[Lunar]

Sure, the cell-phone affect might affect a modern McGovern.  Maybe he would only lose by 22% instead of 23% if he was running today and polled, hah.

[??????????]

Sure, the cell-phone affect might affect a modern McGovern.  Maybe he would only lose by 22% instead of 23% if he was running today and polled, hah.

Lunar, honestly until I see it actually affecting the election in practice I can't put my faith in the truth of this assumption.

[Lunar]

Sure, the cell-phone affect might affect a modern McGovern.  Maybe he would only lose by 22% instead of 23% if he was running today and polled, hah.

Lunar, honestly until I see it actually affecting the election in practice I can't put my faith in the truth of this assumption.

Of course, I'm not asking you to.  That was just a silly hypothetical since he compared Obama to McGovern.  This entire thread is a hypothetical and abstract.

And just so you know, you won't "see" in affecting the election in practice for at least a decade after it happens.  I mean, you can't just assume because the average on the polls on election day were 1% off Obama's result that it was because of the cell-phone effect any more than you can assume the reverse is due to the Bradley effect.  There are dozens if not more independent variables that can cause polling to be off and this is just one of them.

How can you possibly separate the cell-only effect from a good ground game?  Gallup is trying to, by polling cell-only users and comparing it to the overall youth electorate, but that doesn't prove anything for the results on election day.

[J. J.]

The key is the different demographic as the Vorlon put it.  Are cell phone only users in their 20's different than land line phone users in voting patterns.  If the answer yes, it makes a difference; if not, there is no difference.

It would be similar to shift workers.  It would make a difference only if the people on the night shift are going to be voting differently that people on the daylight shift.

[Gustaf]

It would seem to me the question is not if cell phone users vote differently, but rather do they differ from non-cell phone users of similar demographic charateristics.

There is no doubt that the 21 year old cell phone only demographic is substantially different than the 47 year old land land owning demographic, but that is not the question..

Pollsters already ensure that young people are appropriately represented in the sample, and that their income, education, etc matches the totality of their demorgraphic -the isolated variable here is just the cell phones, not age, income, education, etc...

IE is the totality of 23 year old males with just a cell phone intending to vote differently that the totality of 23 year old males who may also have a landline?

Well, I imagine the demographics of cell-only users are disproportionately:
a) College students
b) Wealthy
c) Technologically savvy/hip

One would imagine that this year, far more than other years, these demographic descriptors are part of the Democratic base.  I would say that results WOULD differ from the population as a whole.  FivetThirtyEight, in the original article, claims that seven out of eight cell-only users have a favorable opinion of Obama, but I don't know how they got that statistic.

However, even if voting cell-only users are 10% more Democratic than youngin's in general, that's not really significant enough to affect the vote, assuming the pollster weights by age groups. 

Why would they be wealthy? If I had more money I would get myself a land-line in addition to my cell phone...though they are probably more urban.

[Nym90]

It would seem to me the question is not if cell phone users vote differently, but rather do they differ from non-cell phone users of similar demographic charateristics.

There is no doubt that the 21 year old cell phone only demographic is substantially different than the 47 year old land land owning demographic, but that is not the question..

Pollsters already ensure that young people are appropriately represented in the sample, and that their income, education, etc matches the totality of their demorgraphic -the isolated variable here is just the cell phones, not age, income, education, etc...

IE is the totality of 23 year old males with just a cell phone intending to vote differently that the totality of 23 year old males who may also have a landline?

Well, I imagine the demographics of cell-only users are disproportionately:
a) College students
b) Wealthy
c) Technologically savvy/hip

One would imagine that this year, far more than other years, these demographic descriptors are part of the Democratic base.  I would say that results WOULD differ from the population as a whole.  FivetThirtyEight, in the original article, claims that seven out of eight cell-only users have a favorable opinion of Obama, but I don't know how they got that statistic.

However, even if voting cell-only users are 10% more Democratic than youngin's in general, that's not really significant enough to affect the vote, assuming the pollster weights by age groups. 

Why would they be wealthy? If I had more money I would get myself a land-line in addition to my cell phone...though they are probably more urban.

True, in a lot of the rural areas around here it's not possible to receive a cell phone signal.

[Lunar]

It would seem to me the question is not if cell phone users vote differently, but rather do they differ from non-cell phone users of similar demographic charateristics.

There is no doubt that the 21 year old cell phone only demographic is substantially different than the 47 year old land land owning demographic, but that is not the question..

Pollsters already ensure that young people are appropriately represented in the sample, and that their income, education, etc matches the totality of their demorgraphic -the isolated variable here is just the cell phones, not age, income, education, etc...

IE is the totality of 23 year old males with just a cell phone intending to vote differently that the totality of 23 year old males who may also have a landline?

Well, I imagine the demographics of cell-only users are disproportionately:
a) College students
b) Wealthy
c) Technologically savvy/hip

One would imagine that this year, far more than other years, these demographic descriptors are part of the Democratic base.  I would say that results WOULD differ from the population as a whole.  FivetThirtyEight, in the original article, claims that seven out of eight cell-only users have a favorable opinion of Obama, but I don't know how they got that statistic.

However, even if voting cell-only users are 10% more Democratic than youngin's in general, that's not really significant enough to affect the vote, assuming the pollster weights by age groups. 

Why would they be wealthy? If I had more money I would get myself a land-line in addition to my cell phone...though they are probably more urban.

I don't mean incredibly wealthy, just more wealthy than the population that is land-only and a little more money than the population that is both (linked with being more urban).  Using "urban" as a qualifier instead of wealthy might actually encompass wealthy and capture more of the target demographic, so, yeah, use that instead.