Survey USA: McCain solidly leads Obama in FL

[Reaganfan]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=83889f62-d3ce-4176-a1a1-164a31cbf1e2

McCain: 51%
Obama: 45%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 2%

[ChrisFromNJ]

6% is solidly ahead?

McCain will win 55% of the Hispanic vote?

Regardless, Obama and his campaign have some work to do here. That $39 million being spent over the next month and a half should certainly help.

[Reaganfan]

6% is solidly ahead?

McCain will win 55% of the Hispanic vote?

Regardless, Obama and his campaign have some work to do here. That $39 million being spent over the next month and a half should certainly help.

I know a guy who knows people who work within the FL GOP for McCain, and he heard that inside polls show McCain winning even stronger. He runs well with Cubans, and older residents (for obvious reasons).

[agcatter]

Absolutely.  Spend the entire 39 million.   Spend every last penny of it.

[Brittain33]

I know this doesn't move more than a point off the total, but... 21% of African American voters for McCain? Not likely.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Absolutely.  Spend the entire 39 million.   Spend every last penny of it.

I know you are being sarcastic, but you only have to win the state by 1 vote. As George W would attest too.

It's worth the effort. It's the biggest prize on election day. Florida is essentially the GOP's Pennsylvania. It will be hard for the Democrats to win, but nobody ever faulted the Republicans for spending money in PA.

[agcatter]

I don't fault them for spending the money to win the state.  If they won it the election would be over.  However, makes me wonder how pessimistic they must be about Ohio.  Even Obama has just so much money.  My guess is the 39 million was bogus information.

[Sam Spade]

Do not trust SUSA in Florida.  Let me repeat again, do not trust SUSA in Florida.

Although historically their pattern is to underestimate Republicans, still, the rule applies.

[Stranger in a strange land]

6% is solidly ahead?

McCain will win 55% of the Hispanic vote?

Regardless, Obama and his campaign have some work to do here. That $39 million being spent over the next month and a half should certainly help.

I know a guy who knows people who work within the FL GOP for McCain, and he heard that inside polls show McCain winning even stronger. He runs well with Cubans, and older residents (for obvious reasons).

The impact of the Cuban vote is greatly exaggerated. Not only are they a small minority within the state, they're now even a minority within the Latino population. And as older exiles die, it becomes less and less of a single-issue voting bloc.

[Democratic Hawk]

Republican 41% (45%): McCain 81% (79%); Obama 17% (18%)

Democrat 43% (38%): McCain 23% (20%); Obama 71% (75%)

Independent 15% (17%): McCain 49% (48%); Obama 47% (39%)

Conservative 32% (35%): McCain 85% (81%); Obama 14% (17%)

Moderate 39% (38%): McCain 44% (39%); Obama 54% (54%)

Liberal 17% (14%): McCain 18% (18%); Obama 73% (74%)

Top issue - the economy 60% (58%): Obama 53% (48%); McCain 43% (48%)

(denotes SUSA, Aug. 1-3, 2008)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

At the 95% confidence level, this is in the 95% confidence interval. and therefore is a statistical dead heat.

[HardRCafé]

It's worth the effort. It's the biggest prize on election day. Florida is essentially the GOP's Pennsylvania. It will be hard for the Democrats to win, but nobody ever faulted the Republicans for spending money in PA.

I have.

[agcatter]

"the GOP's Pennsylvania".

I'll buy that.