NH-ARG: Good news for Obama
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  NH-ARG: Good news for Obama
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Author Topic: NH-ARG: Good news for Obama  (Read 807 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: September 18, 2008, 12:14:08 AM »

Well, not really ...

McCain: 48%
Obama: 45%

The two candidates are dead even among independents at 45 percent each, with 2 percent preferring another candidate and 8 percent undecided. McCain leads among Republicans, 85 to 11 percent, while Obama leads among Democrats, 82 to 12 percent.

Men prefer McCain 58 to 36 percent while women prefer Obama, 54 to 38 percent. Obama leads among younger votes while McCain leads among older votes.

The poll of 600 likely voters was taken Sept. 13 to 15 and has a margin of error of 4 percent.

http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=John+DiStaso%27s+Granite+Status%3A+Polling+season+in+NH+opens+today&articleId=d15e277f-3c95-43e8-81c7-3820c70d5e17
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2008, 12:26:56 AM »

We should also consider this:

Late Sept. 2006 ARG poll: Lynch 59%, Republican 29%
Actual Result: Lynch 74%, Republican 26%

Mid-Sept. 2004 ARG poll: Bush 47%, Kerry 45%
Actual Result: Bush 49%, Kerry 50%
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2008, 12:41:37 AM »

Isn't ARG based in NH?  IIRC, during the primaries, ARG's NH polls were notably less insane than their polls of other states.  Maybe because they're local, they knew which polls to copy off of in order to get reasonable looking results (or, less likely, they actually know how to poll the New Hampshire primary).  Doesn't necessarily hold up for the general election though.

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Alcon
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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2008, 12:42:50 AM »

Isn't ARG based in NH?  IIRC, during the primaries, ARG's NH polls were notably less insane than their polls of other states.  Maybe because they're local, they knew which polls to copy off of in order to get reasonable looking results (or, less likely, they actually know how to poll the New Hampshire primary).  Doesn't necessarily hold up for the general election though.

They are, yet they still managed to butcher 2006 impressively.  Not that hard to do with landslide races, but still...they're bad everywhere.
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Rococo4
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« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2008, 12:55:48 AM »

nice to see......but im not sold.

I think NH is very tight.  But not based on this here poll.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2008, 01:04:28 AM »

Isn't ARG based in NH?  IIRC, during the primaries, ARG's NH polls were notably less insane than their polls of other states.  Maybe because they're local, they knew which polls to copy off of in order to get reasonable looking results (or, less likely, they actually know how to poll the New Hampshire primary).  Doesn't necessarily hold up for the general election though.

They are, yet they still managed to butcher 2006 impressively.  Not that hard to do with landslide races, but still...they're bad everywhere.

Yes, I was just thinking about the presidential primaries this year....which obviously isn't going to say much about how they do in the general election, I know.  I'm just saying, in the NH primary polling, they were certainly off on the Democratic side, though not much more so than everyone else....but on the GOP side, their final poll actually had McCain by 5.  That's amazing accuracy by the standards of ARG.  Compare that to, say, their polling of Iowa, or Florida, or California, or South Carolina.  They actually had Huckabee ahead by 7 in South Carolina a day before the primary was held, for crying out loud.

All I'm saying is that they didn't suck as bad in the NH primary as they did everywhere else.  They were also reasonably accurate on the NH primary back in 2004:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/new_hampshire_polls.html

Though again, it probably doesn't mean anything for the GE.  I just figured I'd mention it.

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Aizen
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2008, 01:33:14 AM »

If Obama gets Kerry states + IA, NM and CO, NH is actually irrelevant and won't change anything in the end
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2008, 01:41:44 AM »

If Obama gets Kerry states + IA, NM and CO, NH is actually irrelevant and won't change anything in the end

I think Obama would prefer a clean 273-265 electoral college majority to a messy 269-269 tie.  Also, NH could actually matter if Obama won NV, but not CO.....though yeah, McCain winning CO & NH while Obama wins NV seems kind of unlikely.

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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2008, 07:50:32 AM »

I can believe this, the poll was taken during McCain's high point.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2008, 08:53:29 AM »

I thought his high-point used to be 10th to the 13th when you thought all the ARG polls were taken at that time?
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2008, 08:55:19 AM »

I thought his high-point used to be 10th to the 13th when you thought all the ARG polls were taken at that time?

McCain peaked in the period between September 8-14.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2008, 10:12:31 AM »

It's ARG. Why are you people bothering to try to spin it?
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