50/50 Elections

[nclib]

I compiled the results to find which states have the longest streak of voting more Dem or GOP than the national average:

state (Dem)   most recent more GOP than nation
PA                   1948
MN                   1952
MA,NY,RI             1956

state (GOP)   most recent more Dem than nation
IN,KS,WY             1928 or earlier
NE                   1932
ND                   1936

Most are unsurprising, though it looks PA have consistently been more Dem than the nation, even though it hasn't been among the most Democratic any given year.

[DownWithTheLeft]

??

That's looks like more than 272 McCain considering its 2004 with MN, WI, PA, NH flipped as opposed to only NM.  A net of 60 for McCain from Bush's 286

[nclib]

2008

John McCain (R) - 326
Barack Obama (D) - 212

Didn't Obama carry MN and NH (and possibly others) by more than the national average?

[Lief 🗽]

IN, OH, VA, NC and FL are the only states that would flip. Obama would still win, and Virginia would be within a few thousand votes, since it's less than .5% more Republican than the national average.

[Verily]

That map is definitely wrong. The national margin is 6.7 points; Obama wins (narrowly) on a 50-50 map, 278-260. I think you accidentally applied a swing of 6.7 points instead of a swing of half of that; your map is of a 6.7-point McCain victory. I'll do it.

Here (guessing on NE-01):

[Ronnie]

McCain doesn't break 60 in Tennessee?  Odd.

[Verily]

McCain doesn't break 60 in Tennessee?  Odd.

I realize that I did it just with swings, leaving the third-party vote in there. McCain would have taken over 60% of the two-party vote in Tennessee on an even split.

[nclib]

Best performances in a 50-50 race (so far of 1960-2008)

Dems

1964 - 55.39%
1960 - 54.93% (56.95% of major party EV)

GOP

1968 - 64.50% (61.26% of major party EV)
1984 - 56.32%

w/o state bonus

Dems

1960 - 57.89% (59.95% for major party EV)
1964 - 56.88%


GOP

1968 - 54.59% (59.35% for major party EV)
1984 - 54.36%

[RI]

1924

Calvin Coolidge (R) - 262
John Davis (D) - 228
Robert LaFollette (Prog) - 41

LaFollette gains EV without gaining any votes.

1920

Warren Harding (R) - 283
James Cox (D) - 248

1916

Charles Hughes (R) - 272
Woodrow Wilson (D) - 259

1912 (Taft and Wilson even)

William Taft (R) - 192
Woodrow Wilson (D) - 190
Theodore Roosevelt (Prog) - 149

Bonus 1912: Roosevelt and Wilson even

Woodrow Wilson (D) - 289
Theodore Roosevelt (Prog) - 216
William Taft (R) - 26

[RI]

1908

William Taft (R) - 257
William Bryan (D) - 226

1904

Alton Parker (D) - 240
Theodore Roosevelt (R) - 236

1900

William McKinley (R) - 258
William Bryan (D) - 189

1896

William McKinley (R) - 232
William Bryan (D) - 215

[RI]

1892

Grover Cleveland (D) - 226
Benjamin Harrison (R) - 195
James Weaver (Pop) - 23

[RI]

1888

Benjamin Harrison (R) - 257
Grover Cleveland (D) - 144

1884

James Blaine (R) - 218
Grover Cleveland (D) - 183

[Lunar]

at least recently, it seems like the results swing towards whoever lost, since the winner of elections tends to rack up high margins in electorally useless states.  If you distribute that margin evenly across the rest of the country until it all averages out, the loser gains.

[nclib]

2012:

Obama 285
Romney 253

[nclib]

Bump - here's 2016:

Trump 320
Clinton 218

[nclib]

Best performances in a 50-50 race (so far of 1960-2008)

Dems

1964 - 55.39%
1960 - 54.93% (56.95% of major party EV)

GOP

1968 - 64.50% (61.26% of major party EV)
1984 - 56.32%

w/o state bonus

Dems

1960 - 57.89% (59.95% for major party EV)
1964 - 56.88%


GOP

1968 - 54.59% (59.35% for major party EV)
1984 - 54.36%

In 2016, Trump won 59.48% over the 50-50 electoral vote and 58.72% without the state bonus.

Making the best performances in a 50-50 race from 1960-2016:

Dems

1964 - 55.39%
1960 - 54.93% (56.95% of major party EV)

GOP

1968 - 64.50% (61.26% of major party EV)
2016 - 59.48%

w/o state bonus

Dems

1960 - 57.89% (59.95% for major party EV)
1964 - 56.88%

GOP

2016 - 58.72%
1968 - 54.59% (59.35% for major party EV)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

PA's streak of being more D was broken this year.