Lots of swing states in 04. And Ras got every single one correct. Enough said.
If this election is like 2004 you're 100% right.
One could argue that hard weights might work less than ideal for 2008 due to competing surges of enthusiasm. Who knows, but I wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket.
Rasmussen doesn't hard weight his state polls to party ID. For some reason, that myth has been perpetuated countless times on this forum.
Brain fart, I'm stupid. Most of that myth has been me spreading it despite being proven wrong already with you disproving me once already.
Does he weight by other attributes? I mean, Rasmussen's accuracy can't 100% be attributed to getting a really good SRS and non-leading questions, right?
I'm sure that he weights by age, gender, race and the like. Most pollsters do (exception SUSA). Just not party.
The funny thing is that his state polling method has always worked quite well. Even in 2000, when his national poll blew up, his state polls were among the most accurate in the business.
