Breaking..PA Tied in New Rasmussen Poll 09/14 Obama 47 Mccain 47

[Sbane]

It pays to wait. 

I also expect a small Bradley Effect.

Yay! Racism!

Is it not racist that Mccain is polling at about 4% of the AA vote?

Minorities voting for one of their own is nothing new. Anyways a generic democrat gets 90% of the vote so Obama getting a bit more than that should be expected. Doubt I will get this through your thick skull though. You sig is an absolutely disgusting piece of sh**t.

[Ty440]

It pays to wait. 

I also expect a small Bradley Effect.

Yay! Racism!

Is it not racist that Mccain is polling at about 4% of the AA vote?

Minorities voting for one of their own is nothing new. Anyways a generic democrat gets 90% of the vote so Obama getting a bit more than that should be expected. Doubt I will get this through your thick skull though. You sig is an absolutely disgusting piece of sh**t.

So the blacks that are voting for Obama 94% are voting for good reasons but the whites who are voting for Mccain are voting for bad reasons....hmmm  yea Ok

[Eraserhead]

I expect a huge jump in the Intrade price for Mccain in the following hours

Why exactly?

Favorable polls duh..... PA , FL , CO,      If Mccain wins either CO or PA turn out the lights the parties over

And what of the VA poll? How does victory in CO save him from a loss in VA?

Also do you think the intrade folks just sit waiting for specific state polls from Rasmussen...

[Sbane]

It pays to wait. 

I also expect a small Bradley Effect.

Yay! Racism!

Is it not racist that Mccain is polling at about 4% of the AA vote?

Minorities voting for one of their own is nothing new. Anyways a generic democrat gets 90% of the vote so Obama getting a bit more than that should be expected. Doubt I will get this through your thick skull though. You sig is an absolutely disgusting piece of sh**t.

So the blacks that are voting for Obama 94% are voting for good reasons but the whites who are voting for Mccain are voting for bad reasons....hmmm  yea Ok

When did anyone say that? People who vote against someone because there are of a certain race is disgusting. Here Blacks are preferring Obama over Mccain and I admit some of them are doing it for a stupid reason, but it's not racist. Remember these blacks have been voting for white people for decades. Also understand that 90% of blacks would have preferred any democrat over a republican so this doesn't even hurt Mccain that much. Whites determine who becomes president and I hope they take that responsibility seriously.

[Gustaf]

Hah. All I'm gonna do is remind the Obama supporters on the long threads we've had on polls showing Obama ahead or close in whatever state. You'll get a poll to be excited about soon too (hell, you had the VA one today, didn't you?)

Let the McCain hacks have their fun...election day gives the last laugh anyhow.

I think you’re forgetting the first rule of elections.

(NOTE: I know this is frustrated sarcasm from Lunar, but I'm gonna go ahead and say the below anyway. I'm not getting into the Forum Obama supporters' vendetta against JJ.)

Not really. For the record, I strongly agree with the rule. Since McCain is my candidate it would hardly apply in this case, and even if I supported Obama my point would still stand - gloating over a certain poll is not the same as including it in one's analysis and is not the only option to ignoring polls.

I'm one of those guys who think polls should be given more credit than they generally recieve and as you might recall I have questioned most other ways of measuring the race. But there is a huge difference between a single poll and polls in general.

[Ty440]

I expect a huge jump in the Intrade price for Mccain in the following hours

Why exactly?

Favorable polls duh..... PA , FL , CO,      If Mccain wins either CO or PA turn out the lights the parties over

And what of the VA poll? How does victory in Co save him from a loss in VA?


Also do you think the intrade just sits waiting for specific state polls from Rasmussen...

I think the traders react to polls just like When Obama was at 60 to 40 to win the election before Mccain had his bounce.

VA is looking good for Obama If I were in his campaign I would be more comfortable with him outside the margin of error ..its an unknown how the undecideds  will break

[J. J.]

It pays to wait. 

I also expect a small Bradley Effect.

Yay! Racism!

I was told this weekend that the only reason I wouldn't vote for Obama was because he was black, so I didn't raise it (suggest you look at photos of John Street and Mike Nutter).  It's about 1 point in PA, so I thought any close one would go McCain.  We don't have any polling on MI yet (I've read that WI looks weak). 

[Ty440]

It pays to wait. 

I also expect a small Bradley Effect.

Yay! Racism!

Is it not racist that Mccain is polling at about 4% of the AA vote?

Minorities voting for one of their own is nothing new. Anyways a generic democrat gets 90% of the vote so Obama getting a bit more than that should be expected. Doubt I will get this through your thick skull though. You sig is an absolutely disgusting piece of sh**t.

So the blacks that are voting for Obama 94% are voting for good reasons but the whites who are voting for Mccain are voting for bad reasons....hmmm  yea Ok

When did anyone say that? People who vote against someone because there are of a certain race is disgusting. Here Blacks are preferring Obama over Mccain and I admit some of them are doing it for a stupid reason, but it's not racist. Remember these blacks have been voting for white people for decades. Also understand that 90% of blacks would have preferred any democrat over a republican so this doesn't even hurt Mccain that much. Whites determine who becomes president and I hope they take that responsibility seriously.

I agree lets hope that this election  is not decided on race on either side.. I don't think blacks should vote for Obama just because of his skin color and I don't think whites should vote against him for the same reason. This country is in too much dire straights for that. Let the issues decide it

[Keystone Phil]

*Yawn*

[pepper11]

Sure wish MickyMac wasn't wasting time in Iowa this week.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Fox News/Rasmussen.

LOL.

Throw it in the trash. It's pretty obvious that Scottie wanted to cook up the numbers so he could make an appearance on Hannity tonight.

Please spend a ton of money in this state, McCain!!!

Obama by 4 in the end. Regardless of how much McCain spends.

[Keystone Phil]

Fox News/Rasmussen.

LOL.

Throw it in the trash. It's pretty obvious that Scottie wanted to cook up the numbers so he could make an appearance on Hannity tonight.

Please spend a ton of money in this state, McCain!!!

Obama by 4 in the end. Regardless of how much McCain spends.

The kids are so cute when they act silly!

[ChrisFromNJ]

Fox News/Rasmussen.

LOL.

Throw it in the trash. It's pretty obvious that Scottie wanted to cook up the numbers so he could make an appearance on Hannity tonight.

Please spend a ton of money in this state, McCain!!!

Obama by 4 in the end. Regardless of how much McCain spends.

The kids are so cute when they act silly!

Have you even graduated high school yet, son?

[Boris]

Fox News/Rasmussen.

LOL.

Throw it in the trash. It's pretty obvious that Scottie wanted to cook up the numbers so he could make an appearance on Hannity tonight.

Please spend a ton of money in this state, McCain!!!

Obama by 4 in the end. Regardless of how much McCain spends.

Rasmussen was pretty much dead on in 2006 and 2004 so I'm not quite sure what purpose it serves to deride them. Likewise, Obama's margin depends on the NPV margin. He might win it by 4 in 50-50 but the state is basically a tossup given that McCain appears to be leading by 2-3 points nationally.

[Keystone Phil]

Fox News/Rasmussen.

LOL.

Throw it in the trash. It's pretty obvious that Scottie wanted to cook up the numbers so he could make an appearance on Hannity tonight.

Please spend a ton of money in this state, McCain!!!

Obama by 4 in the end. Regardless of how much McCain spends.

The kids are so cute when they act silly!

Have you even graduated high school yet, son?

I'm a Junior in college, kiddie. Who knows...in a few years...I might be a guest speaker in your seventh grade Social Studies class!

This is pretty insignificant.  One poll, just tied, among countless polls with Obama ahead with a McCain national lead.

Countless polls showing Obama ahead while McCain led nationally? Uh...try maybe two or three.

[J. J.]

Fox News/Rasmussen.

LOL.

Throw it in the trash. It's pretty obvious that Scottie wanted to cook up the numbers so he could make an appearance on Hannity tonight.

Please spend a ton of money in this state, McCain!!!

Obama by 4 in the end. Regardless of how much McCain spends.

The kids are so cute when they act silly!

Have you even graduated high school yet, son?

HAHA!!  I wonder if this kid knows no one takes him seriously yet.  JOKE.

This is pretty insignificant.  One poll, just tied, among countless polls with Obama ahead with a McCain national lead.

It is the trend that I'm looking at.

[Ty440]

Fox News/Rasmussen.

LOL.

Throw it in the trash. It's pretty obvious that Scottie wanted to cook up the numbers so he could make an appearance on Hannity tonight.

Please spend a ton of money in this state, McCain!!!

Obama by 4 in the end. Regardless of how much McCain spends.

The kids are so cute when they act silly!

Have you even graduated high school yet, son?

HAHA!!  I wonder if this kid knows no one takes him seriously yet.  JOKE.

This is pretty insignificant.  One poll, just tied, among countless polls with Obama ahead with a McCain national lead.

It is the trend that I'm looking at.

I really think they will be in denial all the way up until Nov4th  and maybe even after that lol

[Keystone Phil]

McCain hasn't led since early April in any poll.

Ok but polls from April to August mean nothing. Sorry, folks, but this argument isn't a legitimate point. What happens when McCain finally takes a lead? "Oh, well, this is one poll that shows him ahead. He's really been trailing since April and that's what matters."

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No, it's not. He went from being up seven, then up two and now tied.

[Ronnie]

Hehehe

[Barack Hussian YO MAMA!!!!]

It pays to wait. 

I also expect a small Bradley Effect.

Yay! Racism!

I was told this weekend that the only reason I wouldn't vote for Obama was because he was black, so I didn't raise it (suggest you look at photos of John Street and Mike Nutter).  It's about 1 point in PA, so I thought any close one would go McCain.  We don't have any polling on MI yet (I've read that WI looks weak). 

I'm not sure eraserhead was saying that you are a racist but the  way you said it sounded like you where cheering for the Bradley effect.   

[Ty440]

This is pretty insignificant.  One poll, just tied, among countless polls with Obama ahead with a McCain national lead.

Countless polls showing Obama ahead while McCain led nationally? Uh...try maybe two or three.

McCain hasn't led since early April in any poll.

It is the trend that I'm looking at.

The trend is pretty clearly a consistent Obama advantage.

Obama's campaign stratgiest themselves expect undecideds to break 70% to 30% to Mccain so if it's tied you can best believe Mccain is ahead..


A consistent trend for Obama?  Ummm OK he went from 7 up to tied in thew past month that's a trend you really can believe in

[J. J.]

This is pretty insignificant.  One poll, just tied, among countless polls with Obama ahead with a McCain national lead.

Countless polls showing Obama ahead while McCain led nationally? Uh...try maybe two or three.

McCain hasn't led since early April in any poll.

It is the trend that I'm looking at.

The trend is pretty clearly a consistent Obama advantage.

The trend has been that McCain has been getting closer.

[Nym90]

About what should expected since McCain holds about a three point lead over Obama nationally. So it's not really a tossup in 49-49-2.

Exactly. Right now it's a tossup, but that's because McCain is ahead. It's not going to be the tipping point state that decides the election.

[The Vorlon]

I called this earlier today. I'm really not looking foward to Phil's orgasm over statistically insignificant movement like this.

So this is insignificant that Obama is under assault  in a number of blue states  MI , PA , NY , MN?

MI, PA, MN... maybe.....

NY... are you on drugs....?

[ucscgaldamez]

lol. McCain leading Obama by about 20%~ among Independents. On the September 7 poll, Obama was leading by about 19%. So, If I were to believe this poll, at the peak of the McCain surge, Obama led among Independents by about 19%, and now McCain leads by about 20%. That means, there has been a 40% turnaround in a week among independents. wow. That is truly stunning.