OK: Survey USA: McCain defeats Obama 2:1

[Sam Spade]

2004 redux... ugh

[Lief 🗽]

It's kind of sad. Oklahoma used to have one of the strongest Socialist parties in the country, and now look at it. Ugh.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

why are we polling and discussing OK?

[jamestroll]

What an absolute joke of a state

No, they just saw through Obama's nonsense. It would have been Clinton country.

If there are honestly a good 20% of voters in a state who would have voted for Clinton, but choose McCain over Obama, can you really attribute that to anything other than subtle racism and scare tactics?

I was talking to an old classmate who now resides in Alabama the other day who referred to Obama as "not only liberal but black and formerly Muslim and has one year of experience in the Senate."  There is no getting through to these people.  (I didn't bother correcting him on the Muslim charge, by the way, because is he really going to change his mind?)

Well I do not buy the stuff that Obama is a muslim, that is absolute muslim.

But I think the fact that Clinton is a strong woman, relatively moderate, along with having many racist supporters would bring that state pretty close.

[kevinatcausa]

If we treat the national poll results as a given, this is in some sense a horrific poll result for Sen. McCain.  Why?  Because it gives credence to the hypothesis that the main gains he received from selecting Gov. Palin came in states that he was going to win anyways, and that the national bounce he received doesn't correspond to an increased chance of winning the election.

To put it differently: If McCain has gained 5 points nationally, but significantly more than five points in states like Oklahoma (McCain was only +14 in the June Research 2000 poll), then he must have gained significantly less than 5 points in other states.  If (as some of the other recent polls suggest) those states are Florida and Colorado, this may not be such a good week of polling for McCain after all. 

[Sbane]

If we treat the national poll results as a given, this is in some sense a horrific poll result for Sen. McCain.  Why?  Because it gives credence to the hypothesis that the main gains he received from selecting Gov. Palin came in states that he was going to win anyways, and that the national bounce he received doesn't correspond to an increased chance of winning the election.

To put it differently: If McCain has gained 5 points nationally, but significantly more than five points in states like Oklahoma (McCain was only +14 in the June Research 2000 poll), then he must have gained significantly less than 5 points in other states.  If (as some of the other recent polls suggest) those states are Florida and Colorado, this may not be such a good week of polling for McCain after all. 

The problem is that he could have also gained in states like OH and PA. Even if Palin didn't help in FL I still think Mccain has a good shot of winning it in the end. OH was more 50/50 but it seems like it is slipping away. VA might be a place where Obama could target even more heavily. The good thing is that CO seems to have solidified for Obama although I would like to see some more polls.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If we treat the national poll results as a given, this is in some sense a horrific poll result for Sen. McCain.  Why?  Because it gives credence to the hypothesis that the main gains he received from selecting Gov. Palin came in states that he was going to win anyways, and that the national bounce he received doesn't correspond to an increased chance of winning the election.

To put it differently: If McCain has gained 5 points nationally, but significantly more than five points in states like Oklahoma (McCain was only +14 in the June Research 2000 poll), then he must have gained significantly less than 5 points in other states.  If (as some of the other recent polls suggest) those states are Florida and Colorado, this may not be such a good week of polling for McCain after all. 

I'd guess that McCain has gained less than 5 points in some of the no-shot-in-hell states, like New York and my own Massachusetts.

[Joe Biden 2020]

This score is pretty much what I'm expecting after further investigation, and frankly, some common sense.  I think Obama will be hard pressed to win any counties in Oklahoma.  I have a bad feeling McCain may shut Obama out of Oklahoma like Bush did to Kerry.

[Democratic Hawk]

Republican 46% (43%): McCain 89% (96%); Obama 10% (4%)

Democrat 43% (40%): McCain 42% (32%); Obama 55% (68%)

Independent 8% (16%): McCain 56% (66%); Obama 32% (34%)

Conservative 44% (43%): McCain 90% (88%); Obama 9% (12%)

Moderate 33% (44%): McCain 49% (56%); Obama 48% (44%)

Liberal 9% (13%): McCain 27% (25%); Obama 70% (75%)

(denotes 2004 exit poll data)

Top issue - the economy (42%): McCain 61%; Obama 37%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If we treat the national poll results as a given, this is in some sense a horrific poll result for Sen. McCain.  Why?  Because it gives credence to the hypothesis that the main gains he received from selecting Gov. Palin came in states that he was going to win anyways, and that the national bounce he received doesn't correspond to an increased chance of winning the election.

To put it differently: If McCain has gained 5 points nationally, but significantly more than five points in states like Oklahoma (McCain was only +14 in the June Research 2000 poll), then he must have gained significantly less than 5 points in other states.  If (as some of the other recent polls suggest) those states are Florida and Colorado, this may not be such a good week of polling for McCain after all. 

538.com came to the same conclusion. Also probably evidenced by the swing states still polling close and Obama ahead in Colorado.

[Dan the Roman]

If we treat the national poll results as a given, this is in some sense a horrific poll result for Sen. McCain.  Why?  Because it gives credence to the hypothesis that the main gains he received from selecting Gov. Palin came in states that he was going to win anyways, and that the national bounce he received doesn't correspond to an increased chance of winning the election.

To put it differently: If McCain has gained 5 points nationally, but significantly more than five points in states like Oklahoma (McCain was only +14 in the June Research 2000 poll), then he must have gained significantly less than 5 points in other states.  If (as some of the other recent polls suggest) those states are Florida and Colorado, this may not be such a good week of polling for McCain after all. 

I'd guess that McCain has gained less than 5 points in some of the no-shot-in-hell states, like New York and my own Massachusetts.

I agree on New York. I think Massachusetts is either right in line with the national swing or greater. I have a friend who is working on a legislative race here and their tracking poll has Obama up 47-43 in a district Bush lost 59-41 last time. Again though, that may be the massive Massachusetts undecided number, but I think Massachusetts this year will either swing against the national average(if Obama wins) or much greater than it(if McCain does).

Anyway, if McCain point were gaining more in swing states it would go against every past election both here and abroad. In almost every case of a landslide whether here, Canada, Britain, or Australia, the swing is much smaller in marginal seats and states and largest in safe states of the other party.

For example look at 1988. Dukakis outperformed his national margin in PA, MI, MN, WI, and CA, and PA and CA only went for Bush 50-48. At the same time he only won his home state of Massachusetts 53-47. so there was only a five point difference between PA and MA. If McCain wins by a Bush 88 like margin, most of the swing states will still be close, and almost all of his gains over Bush will likely be concentrated in safe Kerry or Bush states from 2004.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Just out of curiosity, what county is that legislative district in?

[Dan the Roman]

Just out of curiosity, what county is that legislative district in?

31st Middlesex, so Winchester and Stoneham. Its an open seat race with Paul Casey retiring.

It was 59-41 in 2004, though the 2006 Governor's race was closer.

49.4% Patrick
40.9% Healey
 8.7%  Mihos
 1.1% Ross

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Just out of curiosity, what county is that legislative district in?

31st Middlesex, so Winchester and Stoneham. Its an open seat race with Paul Casey retiring.

It was 59-41 in 2004, though the 2006 Governor's race was closer.

49.4% Patrick
40.9% Healey
 8.7%  Mihos
 1.1% Ross

Ah, okay.  McCain doing well in Winchester/Stoneham means something different to me than McCain doing well in Dudley, McCain doing well in Woburn, McCain doing well in Wellesley, or McCain doing well in Plymouth.

I would love for Massachusetts to be close.  Honestly, there is no logical reason for this state to be as safely Democratic as it is.

[Dan the Roman]

Just out of curiosity, what county is that legislative district in?

31st Middlesex, so Winchester and Stoneham. Its an open seat race with Paul Casey retiring.

It was 59-41 in 2004, though the 2006 Governor's race was closer.

49.4% Patrick
40.9% Healey
 8.7%  Mihos
 1.1% Ross

Ah, okay.  McCain doing well in Winchester/Stoneham means something different to me than McCain doing well in Dudley, McCain doing well in Woburn, McCain doing well in Wellesley, or McCain doing well in Plymouth.

I would love for Massachusetts to be close.  Honestly, there is no logical reason for this state to be as safely Democratic as it is.

I honestly would not be shocked to see him do well in Woburn. Patrick lost it after all, and from what I am hearing Obama's numbers seem to be tracking fairly closely with Patrick's. McCain's problem is more that while Obama is heavily under-performing, all of those voters are sitting in the undecided corner rather than going to him.

[Gustaf]

Dan,

Something you sort of mention in one of your later posts is that this goes both ways. McCain was doing surprisingly well in the battlegrounds when he was behind. He is doing worse now that he's ahead. That is to be expected, just as you say. So to me, it isn't really bad news for McCain. It is what we would expect. You'll still see an effect from going up generally. The polls do indicate he won't have to work at defending Florida and Missouri anymore, for instance.