Polls: Gay marriage ban in CA unlikely, FL initiative highly competetive

[JohnnyLongtorso]

California Republicans are economic Republicans and do not generally care about stopping gay rights -- in fact, many, if not most, of the millionaire Republicans probably get their hair done by a gay stylist. 

We're not a religious state, except possibly in the heavily Asian/Hispanic locals.  Remember that white people are less than 50% of the state's population.

Although it's an impressive reversal from the ban a few years back, which ran ahead of D vs. R margins everywhere except Beverley Hills.

2000 was a very very different time regarding gay rights. I don't know why but it has become much more acceptable now.

The Vermont Civil Union law was passed in, I believe, 1999. The Massachusetts decision was in 2004. People have had time to realize that gays getting married doesn't mean the world's going to explode.

[nclib]

This might help from the poll:

"Today, Democratic (66%) and independent likely voters (59%) oppose Proposition 8, while Republican likely voters (60%) are in favor. Half in the Central Valley (51%) support Proposition 8, while two in three in the San Francisco Bay Area (65%), and at least half in Los Angeles (54%) and in the Other Southern California (51%) region oppose it. Likely voters who have never married (66%) are more likely to oppose this initiative than those who are married (51%)."

There is not that much difference between Latinos and Anglos:

White 55-39 against
Latino 54-41 against

It's more a regional divide, and partisan divide, unsurprisingly, with  Pubbies in the Central Valley seemingly  solidy against such social experimentation.

Sounds about right. IIRC (I can't find the 2000 CA exit poll online), whites were the least supportive of the ban, though whites, Hispanics, blacks, and Asians were all close. Surprising? Should it be similar in 2008?

[A18]

At this point, I'd like to see a series of amendments abolishing judicial review under state constitutions.

[Sbane]

California Republicans are economic Republicans and do not generally care about stopping gay rights -- in fact, many, if not most, of the millionaire Republicans probably get their hair done by a gay stylist. 

     Depends on where. If you're talking about people like Schwarzenegger or Eastwood, sure. But what about the people in the northeastern part of the state, where McClintock ran ahead of Bustamante in the recall election?

IMO the central valley and certain areas around Bakersfield and Fresno would be way less friendly to gay rights than people in northeastern ca. Those areas are just incredibly republican.

[Chief Justice PiT]

California Republicans are economic Republicans and do not generally care about stopping gay rights -- in fact, many, if not most, of the millionaire Republicans probably get their hair done by a gay stylist. 

     Depends on where. If you're talking about people like Schwarzenegger or Eastwood, sure. But what about the people in the northeastern part of the state, where McClintock ran ahead of Bustamante in the recall election?

IMO the central valley and certain areas around Bakersfield and Fresno would be way less friendly to gay rights than people in northeastern ca. Those areas are just incredibly republican.

     I would suspect that the areas up in the northeast are simultaneously libertarian & ultra-partisan Republican, kind of like a microcosm of Montana or Wyoming.

     That actually wasn't a good example, because as I recall from the old Field Poll's crosstabs, the proposition was failing badly everywhere in Northern California. I suspect that Southern California will be close across the board, possibly excepting Los Angeles city proper.

[phk]

California Republicans are economic Republicans and do not generally care about stopping gay rights -- in fact, many, if not most, of the millionaire Republicans probably get their hair done by a gay stylist. 

     Depends on where. If you're talking about people like Schwarzenegger or Eastwood, sure. But what about the people in the northeastern part of the state, where McClintock ran ahead of Bustamante in the recall election?

IMO the central valley and certain areas around Bakersfield and Fresno would be way less friendly to gay rights than people in northeastern ca. Those areas are just incredibly republican.

Its very socially conservative.

[Sbane]

California Republicans are economic Republicans and do not generally care about stopping gay rights -- in fact, many, if not most, of the millionaire Republicans probably get their hair done by a gay stylist. 

     Depends on where. If you're talking about people like Schwarzenegger or Eastwood, sure. But what about the people in the northeastern part of the state, where McClintock ran ahead of Bustamante in the recall election?

IMO the central valley and certain areas around Bakersfield and Fresno would be way less friendly to gay rights than people in northeastern ca. Those areas are just incredibly republican.

Its very socially conservative.

northeastern california? Possibly but I think they are more libertarian than anything else and thus many will vote against this just out of principle...or maybe not. It is a bit like Montana and Wyoming like pit said. I think areas in the central valley will give higher support to the measure.

[Хahar 🤔]

At this point, I'd like to see a series of amendments abolishing judicial review under state constitutions.

And then we'll have Finland.

[Tender Branson]

New Quinnipiac poll on the ban in Florida:

Florida voters support 55 - 41 percent an amendment that would define marriage as being between a man and woman, slightly lower than the 58 - 37 percent support in a June 3 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University.

Republicans support the amendment 76 - 21 percent while Democrats oppose it 51 - 45 percent and independent voters oppose it by a similar 51 - 44 percent margin.

Men support the measure 55 - 41 percent while women back it 54 - 42 percent. White evangelical Christians support it 78 - 20 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1211

[Cubby]

Republicans support the amendment 76 - 21 percent while Democrats oppose it 51 - 45 percent and independent voters oppose it by a similar 51 - 44 percent margin.

Thats interesting, usually Independents are more conservative than Democrats. If these numbers are accurate, it might be because of Black Democrats supporting the ban. They are very religious

[Raccoon]

Republicans support the amendment 76 - 21 percent while Democrats oppose it 51 - 45 percent and independent voters oppose it by a similar 51 - 44 percent margin.

Thats interesting, usually Independents are more conservative than Democrats. If these numbers are accurate, it might be because of Black Democrats supporting the ban. They are very religious

Don't forget the Northern White Florida Hillbilly Democrats.

Anyway, I can not believe this is still even an issue.. gay marriage is one of the most pathetic issues to argue about.

A very cold button issue to me..

[Dan the Roman]

Republicans support the amendment 76 - 21 percent while Democrats oppose it 51 - 45 percent and independent voters oppose it by a similar 51 - 44 percent margin.

Thats interesting, usually Independents are more conservative than Democrats. If these numbers are accurate, it might be because of Black Democrats supporting the ban. They are very religious

Yeah that's why I have suspicion Obama might cause it to win in California. It is a competition to see if white McCain/No voters will end up counteracting the large number of Obama/Yes voters you will get in the Latino and African American communities. Obama's turnout operation is not helping on that point, and the local NO on 8 campaign is a bit pissed with him.

[Cubby]

Republicans support the amendment 76 - 21 percent while Democrats oppose it 51 - 45 percent and independent voters oppose it by a similar 51 - 44 percent margin.

Thats interesting, usually Independents are more conservative than Democrats. If these numbers are accurate, it might be because of Black Democrats supporting the ban. They are very religious

Yeah that's why I have suspicion Obama might cause it to win in California. It is a competition to see if white McCain/No voters will end up counteracting the large number of Obama/Yes voters you will get in the Latino and African American communities. Obama's turnout operation is not helping on that point, and the local NO on 8 campaign is a bit pissed with him.

As much as I'd like to see this proposition defeated, the important thing is getting Obama elected. All these bans and amendments will be repealed or over-turned someday. Obama can't supress his own supporters, even if they are wrong on this issue.