Polls: Gay marriage ban in CA unlikely, FL initiative highly competetive

[Tender Branson]

California voters appear ready to reject a measure on the November ballot that would ban same-sex marriages, even though they remain evenly divided about gay unions, according to a new poll.

A majority of likely voters, 54 percent, oppose a measure that would amend the state constitution to prohibit same-sex marriage, according to the Public Policy Institute of California survey released Wednesday. Some 40 percent support it, the institute said.

The result is similar to the findings of a survey released in July by the Field Poll, which found that 51 percent of likely California voters opposed Proposition 8 while 42 percent said they would vote for it.

The Public Policy Institute began asking voters how they feel about gay marriage in 2000, the year voters approved Proposition 22. It banned same-sex marriage but did not enshrine it in the Constitution. That year, the poll found 55 percent opposed to gay marriage, and 38 percent in favor.

The poll released Wednesday found the state's likely voters are evenly split on the question of gay marriages — at 47 percent for and against — as they have been for the past three years.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/08/28/america/NA-US-California-Gay-Marriage-Poll.php

Amendment 2, the proposal to define marriage as only between a man and a woman, had 57 percent support statewide while 36 percent said they'd vote against it. Constitutional amendments require 60 percent approval for passage, so the amendment's fate is within the poll's 4 percent margin of error.

The issue will be decided by the 7 percent who said they're undecided.

"Florida voters appear to strongly back Amendment 2," said Brad Coker, manager director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. "A majority of Republicans (77 percent) and Independents (57 percent) support the amendment, while a majority of Democrats (53 percent) oppose it."

http://news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080828/NEWS0107/80828051

[Sensei]

Well, I'll do what I can to make sure Amendment 2 doesn't pass.

[Chief Justice PiT]

     The California proposition is somewhat surprising. It'll probably win easily in the Southern half of the state & lose badly in the Northern half, but I strongly doubt that just 40% of people will support it.

[Sbane]

It probably won't do as well in OC and San Diego counties as you are expecting. It will do really well in the IE. La will vote against it by 10 points or so. And then the bay area and the north will basically seal the deal. Even the central valley looks more opposed to this than I would think.

[Chief Justice PiT]

It probably won't do as well in OC and San Diego counties as you are expecting. It will do really well in the IE. La will vote against it by 10 points or so. And then the bay area and the north will basically seal the deal. Even the central valley looks more opposed to this than I would think.

     There are enough non-Hispanic Democrats in L.A. to beat it there? That would surprise me. I expect that it will win among Hispanics by about 55-45. That's probably a conservative estimate actually, given the breakdown of the old Field Poll (which was about 60% for in SoCal & 65% against in NorCal).

[Cubby]

Great news about California. How will Asians vote on it? There isn't the "cardinal sin" aspect of it in their cultures that there is among Whites and Hispanics, though they would be thrilled with it by any means. I can't wait till these stupid amendments are all done.

Expected about Florida, but not as big a margin of victory as I would have thought. Biggest "No" votes will be Alachua, Broward and Monroe (Key West) Counties. The biggest "Yes" areas will be Charlotte County (Old People) and non-urban areas North and West of Gainesville (Southerners).

[Sbane]

It probably won't do as well in OC and San Diego counties as you are expecting. It will do really well in the IE. La will vote against it by 10 points or so. And then the bay area and the north will basically seal the deal. Even the central valley looks more opposed to this than I would think.

     There are enough non-Hispanic Democrats in L.A. to beat it there? That would surprise me. I expect that it will win among Hispanics by about 55-45. That's probably a conservative estimate actually, given the breakdown of the old Field Poll (which was about 60% for in SoCal & 65% against in NorCal).

Well young latinos who have basically grown up here will vote like their white counterparts. Older latinos will vote for it but according to this poll latinos and whites are voting in about the same number against the measure. We will see if it holds. There are places like west LA and more richer parts of LA county which should vote in very heavy numbers against this. But I still wouldn't be surprised if the numbers from LA and OC are very similar. The IE is the place to watch. It's redneck country out there and even the latinos are hickish riding around with their raised pickups with a trucker hat on at all times. I don't think they are too friendly to the gays. But we will see.

[Sbane]

Great news about California. How will Asians vote on it? There isn't the "cardinal sin" aspect of it in their cultures that there is among Whites and Hispanics, though they would be thrilled with it by any means. I can't wait till these stupid amendments are all done.

Similar situation as with latinos. Younger asians who have grown up here, usually in high income white neighborhoods, will vote like their surroundings. But older Asians will vote for this measure so I don't really know how the overall vote will be.

[Torie]

This might help from the poll:

"Today, Democratic (66%) and independent likely voters (59%) oppose Proposition 8, while Republican likely voters (60%) are in favor. Half in the Central Valley (51%) support Proposition 8, while two in three in the San Francisco Bay Area (65%), and at least half in Los Angeles (54%) and in the Other Southern California (51%) region oppose it. Likely voters who have never married (66%) are more likely to oppose this initiative than those who are married (51%)."

There is not that much difference between Latinos and Anglos:

White 55-39 against
Latino 54-41 against

It's more a regional divide, and partisan divide, unsurprisingly, with  Pubbies in the Central Valley seemingly  solidy against such social experimentation.

[Хahar 🤔]

This should be a pretty good indicator of where the libertarians in the state are.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This should be a pretty good indicator of where the libertarians in the state are.

What about liberals?

[Verily]

This should be a pretty good indicator of where the libertarians in the state are.

What about liberals?

We know where they are already. Libertarians are a bit harder to track down.

[Cubby]

The IE is the place to watch. It's redneck country out there and even the latinos are hickish riding around with their raised pickups with a trucker hat on at all times. I don't think they are too friendly to the gays. But we will see.

I've always wondered why majority Hispanic counties like Tulare and Kings always vote so strongly Republican (Not Kern, which apparently is the Redneck Riviera of the West) I understand that its a conservative area, but you'd think with such a large Hispanic population, they would start voting Democrat eventually. Maybe once more of them get citizenship that will happen.

[Torie]

The IE is the place to watch. It's redneck country out there and even the latinos are hickish riding around with their raised pickups with a trucker hat on at all times. I don't think they are too friendly to the gays. But we will see.

I've always wondered why majority Hispanic counties like Tulare and Kings always vote so strongly Republican (Not Kern, which apparently is the Redneck Riviera of the West) I understand that its a conservative area, but you'd think with such a large Hispanic population, they would start voting Democrat eventually. Maybe once more of them get citizenship that will happen.

Hispanics who vote  to some extent tend to take on the coloration politically of where they live. Hispanics in the Central Valley are more Republican than elsewhere in California, and the same is true in Orange County. I know a couple of Hispanics who split from LA to the Tulare area because LA was too "liberal."

[Alcon]

The IE is the place to watch. It's redneck country out there and even the latinos are hickish riding around with their raised pickups with a trucker hat on at all times. I don't think they are too friendly to the gays. But we will see.

I've always wondered why majority Hispanic counties like Tulare and Kings always vote so strongly Republican (Not Kern, which apparently is the Redneck Riviera of the West) I understand that its a conservative area, but you'd think with such a large Hispanic population, they would start voting Democrat eventually. Maybe once more of them get citizenship that will happen.

Hispanics who vote  to some extent tend to take on the coloration politically of where they live. Hispanics in the Central Valley are more Republican than elsewhere in California, and the same is true in Orange County. I know a couple of Hispanics who split from LA to the Tulare area because LA was too "liberal."

Although there are some incredibly Democratic areas of the CV.  Interestingly (but not surprisingly), also some of Bush's best improvements between 2000 and 2004.

[Sbane]

The IE is the place to watch. It's redneck country out there and even the latinos are hickish riding around with their raised pickups with a trucker hat on at all times. I don't think they are too friendly to the gays. But we will see.

I've always wondered why majority Hispanic counties like Tulare and Kings always vote so strongly Republican (Not Kern, which apparently is the Redneck Riviera of the West) I understand that its a conservative area, but you'd think with such a large Hispanic population, they would start voting Democrat eventually. Maybe once more of them get citizenship that will happen.

Hispanics who vote  to some extent tend to take on the coloration politically of where they live. Hispanics in the Central Valley are more Republican than elsewhere in California, and the same is true in Orange County. I know a couple of Hispanics who split from LA to the Tulare area because LA was too "liberal."

Exactly and I would say asians vote similarly. I mean there is no other way to explain why Chinese in the LA area are more republican than those up north. The Vietnamese of course have their own reasons. And the CV is full of very recent immigrants and many are illegals I would bet. Those farmers sure do love them, since they work in the blazing heat for next to nothing while they sip wine in SF and LA. Just wonderful.

[Lunar]

California Republicans are economic Republicans and do not generally care about stopping gay rights -- in fact, many, if not most, of the millionaire Republicans probably get their hair done by a gay stylist. 

We're not a religious state, except possibly in the heavily Asian/Hispanic locals.  Remember that white people are less than 50% of the state's population.

[Alcon]

California Republicans are economic Republicans and do not generally care about stopping gay rights -- in fact, many, if not most, of the millionaire Republicans probably get their hair done by a gay stylist. 

We're not a religious state, except possibly in the heavily Asian/Hispanic locals.  Remember that white people are less than 50% of the state's population.

Although it's an impressive reversal from the ban a few years back, which ran ahead of D vs. R margins everywhere except Beverley Hills.

[Lunar]

Indeed.

I sort of view California Republican politics as what the financiers in Orange County are willing to throw their money behind.  There are a lot of Republican voters in the state, but getting enough votes for a Republican cause requires a lot of money.

[Sbane]

California Republicans are economic Republicans and do not generally care about stopping gay rights -- in fact, many, if not most, of the millionaire Republicans probably get their hair done by a gay stylist. 

We're not a religious state, except possibly in the heavily Asian/Hispanic locals.  Remember that white people are less than 50% of the state's population.

Although it's an impressive reversal from the ban a few years back, which ran ahead of D vs. R margins everywhere except Beverley Hills.

2000 was a very very different time regarding gay rights. I don't know why but it has become much more acceptable now.

[Verily]

California Republicans are economic Republicans and do not generally care about stopping gay rights -- in fact, many, if not most, of the millionaire Republicans probably get their hair done by a gay stylist. 

We're not a religious state, except possibly in the heavily Asian/Hispanic locals.  Remember that white people are less than 50% of the state's population.

Although it's an impressive reversal from the ban a few years back, which ran ahead of D vs. R margins everywhere except Beverley Hills.

2000 was a very very different time regarding gay rights. I don't know why but it has become much more acceptable now.

I would imagine it might be considered similar to the difference between 1957 and 1965. Things change remarkably quickly when generation gaps are involved because the older generation, the mostly strongly opposed (or supportive), dies while the younger generation, the most strongly supportive (or opposed), becomes old enough to vote.

I would imagine support for gay marriage is at around 20-30% nationally among people who will die this year, but around 60-70% among people who will turn 18 this year.

[Chief Justice PiT]

California Republicans are economic Republicans and do not generally care about stopping gay rights -- in fact, many, if not most, of the millionaire Republicans probably get their hair done by a gay stylist. 

     Depends on where. If you're talking about people like Schwarzenegger or Eastwood, sure. But what about the people in the northeastern part of the state, where McClintock ran ahead of Bustamante in the recall election?

[Lunar]

I'm grew up in that rural Northeastern part (Nevada County) and I stand by my statement.  That area provides some of the base vote but it's not enough to put anything into the majority.

[Chief Justice PiT]

     I'm just saying that there's a very good reason that people like McClintock can run competitive races here, even if they are perennial losers.

[dead0man]

We know where they are already. Libertarians are a bit harder to track down.

Just sniff around for the smell of pot smoke.