leading 2012 Dem. presidential candidates as of early 2009?--Aug. '08 edition

[Mr. Morden]

Now that both candidates have picked their running mates, it's time for another iteration of this poll.  In just a few months, right after the '08 general election, this board will be knee deep in speculation over who will run in 2012.  But why wait that long?

For the purpose of this poll, assume that McCain beats Obama in November.  Now here's the question: In early 2009 (just ~6 months from now), who do you think will make up the media-annointed "first tier" of potential contenders for the 2012 Democratic nomination?

You can pick up to three names, but just to be clear, these are the people who you think the media and political insiders will regard as the initial "first tier".  It doesn't mean that they'll be leading in the early 2012 polls, just as (for example) Mitt Romney was regarded as a "first tier" candidate well before he reached double digits in the national polls.  (Likewise, George Allen would have been considered a "first tier" 2008 candidate in late 2005 / early 2006, but in his case his candidacy didn't go anywhere, for obvious reasons.)

Here are the top vote getters from this poll from May:

(name, followed by # of votes)

Warner 22
Clinton 19
Bayh 10
Obama 9
Feingold 5
Schweitzer 5

[Mr. Morden]

Obama may remain viable.  Gore would have been, remember.  Kerry may even have won this cycle if he were somehow nominated again.

Gore only because he won the popular vote in 2000 (and even the electoral vote was disputed).  Kerry never could have won the nomination in 2008 after having lost in '04.  Nowadays, I think the party wants to discard you once you've lost the general election....*unless* you won the popular vote, a la Gore.