The Institute of VP leaks, tips, and speculation (GOP edition)

[Mr. Morden]

I'm almost tired of reading this stuff now. We have Palin, Romney, and Ridge in Ohio but Pawlenty will be at a state fair in Minnesota?

I don't think it's a given that Pawlenty will actually appear at the state fair.  He cancelled everything in his schedule.  It's possible that he just hasn't gotten to cancelling the state fair appearance.

[HardRCafé]

I'm almost tired of reading this stuff now.

Almost?

[12th Doctor]

I'm almost tired of reading this stuff now. We have Palin, Romney, and Ridge in Ohio but Pawlenty will be at a state fair in Minnesota?

How long has Ridge been in Ohio?  If both he and Michelle have been there all day, it woudl explain why the Secret Service wasn't in Erie.

[Mr. Morden]

Ambinder: Romney expected to be in Dayton tomorrow

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/romney_to_appear_in_dayton_tom.php

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Phoenix Business Journal: Multiple VP contenders to appear in Dayton

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2008/08/25/daily56.html

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(Huckabee appearing in Dayton would contradict other sources, including Huckabee himself.)

[Mr. Morden]

Who is saying that Ridge is in Ohio?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

^^^ There's where I got the big rally idea from. Perhaps Palin is flying down to join in with the group?

[Mr. Morden]

^^^ There's where I got the big rally idea from.

Please explain what you mean.  A couple of sources are saying that multiple shortlisters would appear in Dayton, but who is saying that Ridge will be one of them?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

^^^ There's where I got the big rally idea from.

Please explain what you mean.  A couple of sources are saying that multiple shortlisters would appear in Dayton, but who is saying that Ridge will be one of them?

I don't know if Ridge will be in Ohio. I just assume he'll be one of them there. He might not be, but I thought he was on the short list.

[Mr. Morden]

^^^ There's where I got the big rally idea from.

Please explain what you mean.  A couple of sources are saying that multiple shortlisters would appear in Dayton, but who is saying that Ridge will be one of them?

I don't know if Ridge will be in Ohio. I just assume he'll be one of them there. He might not be, but I thought he was on the short list.

There were rumors that he was on the short list, but we really have no hard evidence of that.

[NOVA Green]

^^^ There's where I got the big rally idea from.

Please explain what you mean.  A couple of sources are saying that multiple shortlisters would appear in Dayton, but who is saying that Ridge will be one of them?

I don't know if Ridge will be in Ohio. I just assume he'll be one of them there. He might not be, but I thought he was on the short list.

There were rumors that he was on the short list, but we really have no hard evidence of that.

I'm still extremely skeptical that McCain would take the huge risk of selecting a pro-choice VP, despite all of the trial balloons that have been posted in the past few weeks.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

^^^ There's where I got the big rally idea from.

Please explain what you mean.  A couple of sources are saying that multiple shortlisters would appear in Dayton, but who is saying that Ridge will be one of them?

I don't know if Ridge will be in Ohio. I just assume he'll be one of them there. He might not be, but I thought he was on the short list.

There were rumors that he was on the short list, but we really have no hard evidence of that.

I'm still extremely skeptical that McCain would take the huge risk of selecting a pro-choice VP, despite all of the trial balloons that have been posted in the past few weeks.

Well, if Lieberman, a liberal Democrat with the exception of his staunch support of the war, is on McCain's short list, I see him having no problem including a pro-choice Republican Ridge.

[Mr. Morden]

Where they are tonight:

link

Pawlenty: in St. Paul
Romney: in an unspecified location in CA, meeting with GOP fundraisers
Ridge: his suburban DC home
Lieberman: vacationing on Long Island

[Meeker]

Are reporters watching them like they were with Obama's shortlist?

They have to move eventually!

[NOVA Green]

^^^ There's where I got the big rally idea from.

Please explain what you mean.  A couple of sources are saying that multiple shortlisters would appear in Dayton, but who is saying that Ridge will be one of them?

I don't know if Ridge will be in Ohio. I just assume he'll be one of them there. He might not be, but I thought he was on the short list.

There were rumors that he was on the short list, but we really have no hard evidence of that.

I'm still extremely skeptical that McCain would take the huge risk of selecting a pro-choice VP, despite all of the trial balloons that have been posted in the past few weeks.

Well, if Lieberman, a liberal Democrat with the exception of his staunch support of the war, is on McCain's short list, I see him having no problem including a pro-choice Republican Ridge.

Yeah, but Lieberman was a trial balloon to test the impact of a Ridge selection.... I still don't think that he's got the balls to risk alienating the Christian Conservative base by picking a pro-choice VP.

[Lincoln Republican]

What is it with with this ridiculous Palin obsession?

Nothing aginst her personally, but she would be an absolutely horrible, horrible, horrible choice.

Compared to Biden, she is a political neophyte.

Far too inexperienced to even be considered for a national ticket. 

McCain has said his VP would be qualified to be President.  Palin comes howhere near this criteia.

It is laughable.  She is not in contention.  Never was in contention.

McCain would be laughed off the Presidential stage if he lost his mind and picked her.

Not gonna happen.

[Reaganfan]

I'm eagerly awaiting my text.

[Rococo4]

youve actually got me thinking it might happen.

[HardRCafé]

Palin is likelier than Romney at this point.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

youve actually got me thinking it might happen.

I'm just guessing, but with two lear jet flights out of Anchorage (population 300k) to Middletown within 24 hours, both originating out of Seattle (probably the home base of whatever lear jet leasing company was used), with one staying overnight way down in Flagstaff, 30 minutes from where McCain was at the time....

Why would Palin fly to Dayton nearly a week before she is due in Minn at the convention where she was already scheduled to speak?  And why would she or members of her staff stop over in Flagstaff and spend the night?  There is no way Palin is needed in Dayton if she ain't the pick.

I know I am going to look real crazy tomorrow if it ain't her...But, at this point, if Palin isn't the VP pick, then a frog's ass ain't water tight.

Well, on InTrade her bid is 2, her ask is 6.3 and her last is 4.0.

[Lunar]

I think Palin would be a solid choice, but she just hasn't done  the rounds.  VP choices need to prove they can handle constant media interviews and Palin just hasn't done it.  I will seriously make any bet with anyone at any rate that Palin is not the choice.

I know I sometimes make crazy predictions, but that is because I like being risky.  This is just common sense.  If you are seriously considering someone for a vice-presidential candidate, you have them do interview after interview until you are certain they are capable of sticking to a message and come across as sincere/authentic/intelligent/whatever.  Various Alaska governor interviews do not count as the scrutiny of the national media is a lot more intense.

If you could point to me 10 Palin interviews in the last 2 months by the national media, or anything close to that, I would appreciate it. 

Y'all have to chill on the Palin train.  Whitman is far more likely as at least McCain gave her a call-out on one of he three most trusted advisers and at least she does representative interviews/commentary for McCain.

[Rococo4]

Palin is likelier than Romney at this point.

I agree with that as well.

I've gone back and forth on whether she is a good pick.  I've settled on probably yes, she is.  It would be a tremendous gamble.  But it could pay off very well.

That said, I would still be shocked if it was the pick.  But that is what McCain needs.  Nothing against Pawlenty at all, but he is the type cast "do no harm."  Not what McCain needs.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

youve actually got me thinking it might happen.

I'm just guessing, but with two lear jet flights out of Anchorage (population 300k) to Middletown within 24 hours, both originating out of Seattle (probably the home base of whatever lear jet leasing company was used), with one staying overnight way down in Flagstaff, 30 minutes from where McCain was at the time....

Why would Palin fly to Dayton nearly a week before she is due in Minn at the convention where she was already scheduled to speak?  And why would she or members of her staff stop over in Flagstaff and spend the night?  There is no way Palin is needed in Dayton if she ain't the pick.

I know I am going to look real crazy tomorrow if it ain't her...But, at this point, if Palin isn't the VP pick, then a frog's ass ain't water tight.

Well, on InTrade her bid is 2, her ask is 6.3 and her last is 4.0.

what is more likely:
A) those at InTrade don't know anything because McCain has kept it quiet
or
B) two different sets of VIPs not related to politics used the same lear jet leasing company based in Seattle to fly out of Anchorage to Middletown Ohio, with one making an overnight stop in Flagstaff, within the last 24 hours on a Thursday night and just happened to arrive at the place and time of McCain announcing his VP pick?

Is Palin undervalued? Perhaps.
Is Palin the most likely pick? No.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

and the plot thickens yet some more:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin

read the last sentence of the first paragraph.

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(I had no hand in this edit of wikipedia)

late edit:  someone reedited the page and the last sentence is no longer there

Someone named Lobbynoise made that edit. The same minute you posted, someone (not I) removed it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

and the plot thickens yet some more:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin

read the last sentence of the first paragraph.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

(I had no hand in this edit of wikipedia)

late edit:  someone reedited the page and the last sentence is no longer there

Someone named Lobbynoise made that edit. The same minute you posted, someone (not I) removed it.

Lobbynoise?  sounds political, doesn't it?  I wonder if someone associated to the McCain camp is monitoring her wiki page?  Now I'm going too far, that would seem extreme!

From their contribution history, they seem mainly interested in Teaching English as a second language, although they have also edited wiki pages for the King of Thailand and the British intelligence agency.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Palwenty's last trade was at 52.0...wasn't he around 80 earlier in the evening?

Look at the thread I posted, they're all haywire.