The Institute of VP leaks, tips, and speculation (GOP edition)

[J. J.]

Neither Sarah or Michael (who has better name recognition).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Neither Sarah or Michael (who has better name recognition).

fellas, now obviously I am just guessing, but I think the McCain camp has given hints all day when they keep repeatedly warning, "Don't read too much into who is going to be where".  Makes me think those explicitly listed to be in Dayton are NOT it.

This is a VP reveal, not a mystery novel.  Sometimes two plus two really can equal four.

[Beet]

Here's what the McCain campaign should do. They should make a riddle or puzzle of some sort, not solvable simply by computer power, accessible to all, but likely solvable by no one, and the answer to the riddle or puzzle contains the VP's name. And the 9th person who answers it correctly also gets a chance to address the RNC by video and say why they support McCain!

[© tweed]

Pawlenty heavily favored on Intrade

[J. J.]

Pat Buchannan is wearing Ray-Bans, and Nora O'Donnall was attempting to dance.  For possibly the only time in his live, Stevie Wonder was lucky he was blind because he didn't have to see that.

[bkey]

Tim, Tom or Kay?  I still think the Mitt is in it.

S-A-R-A-H

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Pawlenty heavily favored on Intrade

And I just covered my Romney shorts at 5.2.  That's a quick $90 in three hours.

Can I convert my 401(k) to an Intrade account?

[Lunar]

THE T-PAW STORM IS BUILDING

[??????????]

Who helps McCain more? Pawlenty or Romney? Sorry, I'm not very familiar with Pawlenty or Minnesota politics. I'm not expecting much of a fair or balanced explanation but I'm hoping a reasonable poster will please tell me. Please no "OMGz McSame sux".

[Keystone Phil]

Who helps McCain more? Pawlenty or Romney? Sorry, I'm not very familiar with Pawlenty or Minnesota politics. I'm not expecting much of a fair or balanced explanation but I'm hoping a reasonable poster will please tell me. Please no "OMGz McSame sux".

He's good because he's young and satisfies conservatives. He also doesn't have the problems that Romney has.

[© tweed]

Who helps McCain more? Pawlenty or Romney? Sorry, I'm not very familiar with Pawlenty or Minnesota politics. I'm not expecting much of a fair or balanced explanation but I'm hoping a reasonable poster will please tell me. Please no "OMGz McSame sux".

I tend to think Romney makes the most sense because he could stand up to Biden both intelligence and personality wise in the big stage.  Romney has been in the spotlight and can handle himself.  Pawlenty, a relatively unknown governor from a midwestern state, is a bit of an unknown quantity.  McCain is honoring loyalty here rather than doing the right thing (Pawlenty was one of McCain's earliest backers and stuck with him through thick and thin - and the going got pretty damn thin for McCain at midsummer).  McCain should swallow his pride and go with Romney.

[Lunar]

Well, the general consensus is this:

Both are great at staying on message, both have done the media circuit, etc.

Pawlenty is an affable, mainstream conservative that is not off-putting towards moderates.  He speaks with a high amount of authenticity but he could get beaten back by Biden's aggressiveness in the debate, one of the few key moments of a VP's career.  No one serious thinks Pawlenty will cause Minnesota to flip, but I think it will be a great moment to bring the homestate governor out as your VP during the GOP convention.

Romney is less likable, but has access to business and Mormon networks for raising RNC cashflows.  He is a far better debater and could potentially match Biden in the debates.  However, Romney has pretty high negatives and there are many on this forum that will switch to Obama (PiT), become upset with their party (pick one), or will cease being undecided (Alcon).

Who knows who helps McCain more.  Generally VP's are picked for their lack of head-line grabbing negative baggage, or at least that lack of baggage is one of the most important qualifiers.  Given that, it seems that Pawlenty is about as perfect as McCain will get.

[??????????]

Thanks fellows.

[ilikeverin]

Pawlenty is an affable, mainstream conservative that is not off-putting towards moderates.

This is true.  I don't find him particularly detestable.  He's great for a Republican on the environment, for example.

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This is quite true.  Pawlenty is a softie (just like any Minnesotan politician!).

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Maybe people from out-of-state might find it quaint, but Pawlenty's reception would be relatively tepid (compared to the average homestate advantage, which is to say the reception would be warm and enthusiastic); just as Pawlenty doesn't create terrible hatred, he also doesn't incite zealotry among the Minnesotan Republican ranks.  He's vanilla.

[Lunar]

No leak tonight:

JMart

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[© tweed]

Steele on Fox News stated about 30 min ago he thought it was either Palin or Pawlenty, but thought McCain would pick Palin.

how many times did that get you off?  six?

[Keystone Phil]

No leak tonight:

JMart

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So it will come at midnight, right? 

[© tweed]

Steele on Fox News stated about 30 min ago he thought it was either Palin or Pawlenty, but thought McCain would pick Palin.

how many times did that get you off?  six?

actually, my wife was the one that heard it and replayed it for me with TIVO.

kinky!

[bkey]

Steele on Fox News stated about 30 min ago he thought it was either Palin or Pawlenty, but thought McCain would pick Palin.

That would be amazing.

[Lincoln Republican]

Steele on Fox News stated about 30 min ago he thought it was either Palin or Pawlenty, but thought McCain would pick Palin.

That would be amazing.

If McCain picks Palin, he would be seen to fail his first major test as a Presidential  nominee, i.e., his selection of a running mate. 

McCain has stated his number one criteria for a running mate is to pick someone who would be capable of being President.  Palin comes nowhere near this qualification.  It is ludicrous to think she does.

McCain would be laughed off the Presidential stage with a Palin pick.

[Lunar]

538.com says that its sources say NOT Pawlenty but are tight-lipped

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[JSojourner]

Who helps McCain more? Pawlenty or Romney? Sorry, I'm not very familiar with Pawlenty or Minnesota politics. I'm not expecting much of a fair or balanced explanation but I'm hoping a reasonable poster will please tell me. Please no "OMGz McSame sux".

He's good because he's young and satisfies conservatives. He also doesn't have the problems that Romney has.

Gotta agree.  Plus, Pawlenty was a McCain supporter from the get go.  Mac has been smart to roll out the video of Hillary, Biden and other question Obama's readiness for the Presidency.  If he picks Romney, all that gets cancelled out.  

Plus, Pawlenty seems like such a likeable, unassuming guy.  A lot like Biden in that sense.  He strikes me as a guy who would ride the train to work, be a family man, etc.  Truth is, Romney IS a family man...a very devoted one.  But he just lacks that "salt of the earth" quality Pawlenty seems to have.

I'm still saying Pawlenty, Portman, Ridge or maybe someone like Thune.  But Jmcfst's thoughts about Palin remain intriguing.  And, speaking as a Democrat...scary.

[WalterMitty]

im watching this eric cantor guy on television.  my goodness, he is horrid.  absolutely awful.

and he has...what is it called?  a rabbit's ridge hair style.

[Meeker]

Huh, I'm really surprised at the 'not Pawlenty' reports.

Who could it be then? I still can't believe they'd pick Mittens.

[The Duke]

People need to stop saying Pawlenty is safe because he has no negatives.

The negative is the absence of positives.

Did I fall asleep and miss out on a massive electoral shift where the GOP brand suddenly became popular again?  To win, McCain must keep breaking the mold.