CNN confirms that Biden is Obama's choice for running mate

[12th Doctor]

Obama went out and found the one person in America who is more arrogant and self-righteous than himself... congrats.

Let the gaffing begin.

[12th Doctor]

Don't attack Biden.  Flatter him.

Say that you wish he was at the top of the ticket instead of the bottom.  Say that would have reassured you.  Say that Biden has a gravitas Obama didn't have on his own.

Say that Obama is implicitly admitting that experience does matter after all.

And get some intrepid beat reporter to ask Joe Biden if he truly thinks Obama is more qualified to be President than he is.

Then run an ad that shows clips of Biden saying Obama isn't up to the job (There are plenty out there) and saying good things about McCain (There are some out there).

In the VP debates, don't touch Biden.  Just point out how much smarter Biden is than Obama, how much more knowledgeable he is.  Then point out that if you want someone in the top job who is as ready as Joe Biden you have to vote for John McCain.

Remember, this race isn't about Joe Biden.  It's about Obama and McCain first and foremost.  Use Biden to make McCain look good and Obama look like a lightweight.

And whatever you do, don't pick Tim Pawlenty.

The best running mate to combat Biden is Ridge... on many levels.

[12th Doctor]

The best running mate to combat Biden is Ridge... on many levels.

IMO, if Ridge is the VP Nominee, this election is over.  Obama can never get the electoral vote combination needed to win.  Romney on the ticket would be close to that as well, but Obama's odds would go up.

Is Ridge really that popular in Pennsylvania?

Ridge is very well liked amongst the people that were turned off by Barack in the primary.  Also, Ridge guarantees McCain at least 75% in the Northwest... which, while the Northwest is the least populace of the four corners of the state, that would, none-the-less be very significant.

As I pointed out, also, Ridge is regionally connected.  People across the border is Ohio, who might normally throw their support, volunteers and money behind a Democrat would reconsider with Ridge on the ticket.

[12th Doctor]

The question is, which Ridge does he get?  Does he get caught-in-the-headlights Ridge from his time as Secretary of Homeland Security, or does he get the dynamic, considerate Ridge from his days as governor?  The latter still exists, as I have born witness to it.

Let's not forget, Ridge is no idiot.  He graduated with honors from the elite highschool of Erie.  He worked his way through Harvard (construction work).  He has a law degree from Dickinson.  I think he was just overwhelmed and understaffed at HLS.  He'd be a great pick.

[12th Doctor]

The best running mate to combat Biden is Ridge... on many levels.

IMO, if Ridge is the VP Nominee, this election is over.  Obama can never get the electoral vote combination needed to win.  Romney on the ticket would be close to that as well, but Obama's odds would go up.

Is Ridge really that popular in Pennsylvania?

Ridge is very well liked amongst the people that were turned off by Barack in the primary.  Also, Ridge guarantees McCain at least 75% in the Northwest... which, while the Northwest is the least populace of the four corners of the state, that would, none-the-less be very significant.

As I pointed out, also, Ridge is regionally connected.  People across the border is Ohio, who might normally throw their support, volunteers and money behind a Democrat would reconsider with Ridge on the ticket.

Except that Ridge is pro abortion, which matters to a great deal of people, and not just Republicans, outside the Northeast.

Again, Ridge is not "pro abortion"... Ridge is actually pro-life, but his abortion position is very complex.  As I have said, one of Ridges biggest problems is that he is an awful soundbiter.  It takes him 30 minutes to explain his position on chocolate cake.  And Ridge does support limitations on abortion, outright, and he supports near total ban if a certain number of stipulations are met.  Ridge could, quite credibly, say that he opposes Roe, which is something in our corner.

[12th Doctor]

The best running mate to combat Biden is Ridge... on many levels.

IMO, if Ridge is the VP Nominee, this election is over.  Obama can never get the electoral vote combination needed to win.  Romney on the ticket would be close to that as well, but Obama's odds would go up.

Is Ridge really that popular in Pennsylvania?

Ridge is very well liked amongst the people that were turned off by Barack in the primary.  Also, Ridge guarantees McCain at least 75% in the Northwest... which, while the Northwest is the least populace of the four corners of the state, that would, none-the-less be very significant.

As I pointed out, also, Ridge is regionally connected.  People across the border is Ohio, who might normally throw their support, volunteers and money behind a Democrat would reconsider with Ridge on the ticket.

Except that Ridge is pro abortion, which matters to a great deal of people, and not just Republicans, outside the Northeast.

Again, Ridge is not "pro abortion"... Ridge is actually pro-life, but his abortion position is very complex.  As I have said, one of Ridges biggest problems is that he is an awful soundbiter.  It takes him 30 minutes to explain his position on chocolate cake.  And Ridge does support limitations on abortion, outright, and he supports near total ban if a certain number of stipulations are met.  Ridge could, quite credibly, say that he opposes Roe, which is something in our corner.

All of which sounds like McCain's position, except (1) McCain has long been more forthright against it and (2) in any event, he can explain his position better -- or, rather, that he can explain it in a way that doesn't let the Democrats do it for him.

Nuance, and all of the eye-blinking and forehead-sweating associated with it, is deadly before a camera. But I have no need to remind you of it.

Remember: the people who care about abortion, who vote GOP and man phones and give money and such, don't want any compromise nuance-type candidate at the top of the ticket. They have enough problems with McCain. I say, pick a pro-lifer who doesn't scare people. Or a woman. From Alaska.

Not to mention, PA -- the whole of the Northeast, really -- was long gone even before today.

Picking Ridge puts PA in McCain's pocket.  Signed, sealed, delivered.

Picking Ridge highlights the GOP's effort to reach out to the working class, because, in terms of backgrounds you don't get any more working class than Ridge.

Ridge is a decorated Vietnam Veteran, which increases McCain's strength there.

McCain can effortlessly highlight experience by picking Ridge, whereas Obama fumbled, ineloquently, and practically strained to admit, with his VP choice, that he has none.  This increases the contrast.

Ridge doesn't outshine McCain in any significant category... except height.  Which is good for a VP pick.

Ridge is a good personality match for McCain, and will blend in well with the tempo of the campaign.  Just watch the Obama camp try to get Barack and Biden to match or blend.

Finally, if Saddleback didn't convince social conservatives, then nothing ever will.  The negative reaction against Ridge is coming from the pundants and not voters.  Granted, they turn some heads, but this will all look relatively minor by October.

If Ridge gets enough stump/debate practice, there won't be an fumbling.  He'll be fine.

[12th Doctor]

The best running mate to combat Biden is Ridge... on many levels.

IMO, if Ridge is the VP Nominee, this election is over.  Obama can never get the electoral vote combination needed to win.  Romney on the ticket would be close to that as well, but Obama's odds would go up.

There is NO way that Obama can win against a McCain/Ridge ticket? Really?  I never realized that vice presidents could guarantee an election in August.

Ridge can.  He is hugely popular in PA and he can attract women, especially older women.  He is moderate on abortion, while still anti abortion.  He truly was raised working class and is a decorated veteran of Viet Nam.  When in congress, he represented Erie and down the boarder to outside of Pittsburgh,  He can influence a far chunk of OH as well.  He plays well everyplace and plays strongly in eastern OH and all of PA, excepting the Phila ghettos; he won re-election with the highest GOP vote in the fistory of the state.  He helps with 41 EV's.  He completely neutralizes Biden.

I say McCain/Ridge is facing Obama/Biden, Obama/Biden is facing the perfect political storm, and cannot win. 

You will note that I have never said Obama cannot win before.

I feel validated by knowing that my own humble, original opinions are similar to those of a genuine political professional.  Now if someone would just give me a job. 

[12th Doctor]

Here is the map:

Obama/Biden versus McCain/Ridge

I think Obama/Biden can still win Biden's birth state.

Wow... Biden was born in PA.  Ridge was one of the most popular governors in the history of the state.

[12th Doctor]

And as I have said, it helps that Ridge is from Erie, because people up there are fanatical hometowners... fanatical.

[12th Doctor]

Here is the map:

Obama/Biden versus McCain/Ridge

I think Obama/Biden can still win Biden's birth state.

Wow... Biden was born in PA.  Ridge was one of the most popular governors in the history of the state.

If it wasn't for the 12 mile circle, Biden would still live in PA.

Ummm... okay.

[12th Doctor]

Here is the map:

Obama/Biden versus McCain/Ridge

I think Obama/Biden can still win Biden's birth state.

He will, Hawaii.  However, both Bushes,  and Kerry didn't, and VP candidates Edwards, Bentson, Ferarro, Kemp did not win theirs.

The difference is that Obama is up 6 points right now.

Get ready to witness the amazing vanishing lead.

[12th Doctor]

Here is the map:

Obama/Biden versus McCain/Ridge

I think Obama/Biden can still win Biden's birth state.

He will, Hawaii.  However, both Bushes,  and Kerry didn't, and VP candidates Edwards, Bentson, Ferarro, Kemp did not win theirs.

The difference is that Obama is up 6 points right now.

Get ready to witness the amazing vanishing lead.

Obama only needs to win by 1 vote.

That's nice, Ridge will probably bring in several hundred thousand, at least.

[12th Doctor]

And there is no math that gives Obama a win without PA and Ohio.

Ridge probably brings in the most EV's of any person on either shortlist.

[12th Doctor]

And there is no math that gives Obama a win without PA and Ohio.

Ridge probably brings in the most EV's of any person on either shortlist.

     I guess that this isn't a win then:

     I find it to be reasonable. Ridge will have absolutely zero effect in CO, NV, NM, IA, or VA. I figure Obama has at least a 50/50 shot at each of those states anyway.

That scenario is pretty unlikely. And Ridge shores up VA and IA because of the working class vote.  As I said, Ridge screams "not unfriendly to workers".  What Biden screams might not be fit for TV.

Ridge appeals to a lot of ex-Hillary voters.

[12th Doctor]

....if Ridge guaranteed both Pennsylvania and Ohio, which he most certainly would not.

He would guarantee PA for certain.  And as I have said many, many times.  Ridge is a regional player.  Always has been.  His district was located right across the boarder from Youngstown, Ashtabula, Akron and Cleveland, and his connections there aren't to be down played.

[12th Doctor]

Sometimes I get the idea that most people on this forum would have nothing to say to me if they simply read what I have already said.  Anymore, it seems as though I previously address the concerns of 95% of all posters who come at me.

[12th Doctor]

....if Ridge guaranteed both Pennsylvania and Ohio, which he most certainly would not.

     Of course. Ridge would have as much of an effect on Ohio as Jerry Brown would on Nevada. He's not the governor in Ohio after all.

And there is no math that gives Obama a win without PA and Ohio.

Ridge probably brings in the most EV's of any person on either shortlist.

     I guess that this isn't a win then:

     I find it to be reasonable. Ridge will have absolutely zero effect in CO, NV, NM, IA, or VA. I figure Obama has at least a 50/50 shot at each of those states anyway.

That scenario is pretty unlikely. And Ridge shores up VA and IA because of the working class vote.  As I said, Ridge screams "not unfriendly to workers".  What Biden screams might not be fit for TV.

Ridge appeals to a lot of ex-Hillary voters.

     Too bad for McCain that Ridge is not at the top of the ticket & as such, him appealing to the working class & women is totally meaningless. 99.9% of voters could not care less about who the running mates are when they vote. McCain is the one who would be president; not Ridge.

First off, I was unaware that San Fransisco and Las Vegas were in the same socio-political region... or even anywhere close to one another.

Second, as I said before, picking Ridge helps set the tone of the campaign in ways that go beyond his immediate impact on the ticket.

[12th Doctor]

     Now you do.

     Anyway, McCain can set the tone of his campaign independent of Ridge. My point remains that Ridge himself would have almost no effect on any of the five states I have flipping. Vice-presidents never do unless they bring something huge to the ticket, like Cheney bringing experience.

Picking Ridge puts PA in McCain's pocket.  Signed, sealed, delivered.

Picking Ridge highlights the GOP's effort to reach out to the working class, because, in terms of backgrounds you don't get any more working class than Ridge.

Ridge is a decorated Vietnam Veteran, which increases McCain's strength there.

McCain can effortlessly highlight experience by picking Ridge, whereas Obama fumbled, ineloquently, and practically strained to admit, with his VP choice, that he has none.  This increases the contrast.

Ridge doesn't outshine McCain in any significant category... except height.  Which is good for a VP pick.

Ridge is a good personality match for McCain, and will blend in well with the tempo of the campaign.  Just watch the Obama camp try to get Barack and Biden to match or blend.

Finally, if Saddleback didn't convince social conservatives, then nothing ever will.  The negative reaction against Ridge is coming from the pundants and not voters.  Granted, they turn some heads, but this will all look relatively minor by October.

If Ridge gets enough stump/debate practice, there won't be an fumbling.  He'll be fine.

[12th Doctor]

And there is no math that gives Obama a win without PA and Ohio.

Ridge probably brings in the most EV's of any person on either shortlist.

I will say that I still have misgivings about Ridge, in spite of your passionate defense of him. They extend even beyond his abortion moderation (which must be kept in mind at all times in GOP politics).

Does he still have real electoral cache in PA or, better still, Midwestern politics? Do endorsements from him matter? Most importantly, could he even win "reelection", so to speak, if he ran in PA today? Not only do I get the strong impression that Ridge's time, like Giuliani's in NY, is up, the state itself (along with NH) seems to have turned in a tidal wave to the Democrats these few years.

I dismiss, though, concerns about his stint in the DHS. No one remembers that anyhow.

Not to overstate the importance of VP picks -- I just think that Ridge would be a electoral dud outside of (and perhaps even in) the old industrial Northwest, and will just drag down a ticket already burdened with a still-distrusted McCain with so much ballast.

In the end, I think Romney would be the pick -- he has all of the faults of Ridge (not being able to be elected in a home state not named "Utah"), but has the benefit of being trusted by social conservatives.

There were a few polls conducted back in early '06 pitting Ridge against Rendell (it would have been possible for him to run, and there was a brief movement).  They all showed Ridge defeating Rendell by significant margins.  Interesting, if one considers the actual result of the election.

And I for one can attest that Ridge is still very popular in the Northwest, which is one part of the state where there has been significant Republican bleeding in the last couple elections.

And don't forget... this also sets Ridge up as the parties standard bearer in 2012 if McCain wins (he would be 66).

[12th Doctor]

Because lets face it... McCain is likely a one termer due to his age... in fact, there is alot of buzz that he has made a one term pledge behind closed doors.

[12th Doctor]

Any chance you could dig this poll up, Chris?

I know at least one was internal.  The others are likely lost to history, I'll look.

[12th Doctor]

And don't forget... this also sets Ridge up as the parties standard bearer in 2012 if McCain wins (he would be 66).

I'm confused, are you now arguing for or against Ridge?

I'm not jazzed about Ridge as President.

If he delivers Pennsylvania and the McCain campaign has polls showing he delivers Pennsykvania, then there's really no discussion.  Ridge must be the pick.  But if he doesn't clearly deliver Pennsylvania he shouldn't be on the shortlist because I don't see anything else about him that recommends him.

Well, what I was referring to is that the Ridge base will be extra energized over that prospect.

And I am 99% certain that Ridge delivers PA with minimal effort by the McCain camp.  And he helps out McCain were he is likely to be weakest in Ohio... the Northeast.