CNN confirms that Biden is Obama's choice for running mate

[J. J.]

A relatively bad choice, in that there better candidates (politically).  Overall, as VP nominees go, a middling choice. 

The timing, a Saturday at 12:45 AM, is hideously bad.

[J. J.]

The best running mate to combat Biden is Ridge... on many levels.

IMO, if Ridge is the VP Nominee, this election is over.  Obama can never get the electoral vote combination needed to win.  Romney on the ticket would be close to that as well, but Obama's odds would go up.

[J. J.]

The best running mate to combat Biden is Ridge... on many levels.

IMO, if Ridge is the VP Nominee, this election is over.  Obama can never get the electoral vote combination needed to win.  Romney on the ticket would be close to that as well, but Obama's odds would go up.

There is NO way that Obama can win against a McCain/Ridge ticket? Really?  I never realized that vice presidents could guarantee an election in August.

Ridge can.  He is hugely popular in PA and he can attract women, especially older women.  He is moderate on abortion, while still anti abortion.  He truly was raised working class and is a decorated veteran of Viet Nam.  When in congress, he represented Erie and down the boarder to outside of Pittsburgh,  He can influence a far chunk of OH as well.  He plays well everyplace and plays strongly in eastern OH and all of PA, excepting the Phila ghettos; he won re-election with the highest GOP vote in the fistory of the state.  He helps with 41 EV's.  He completely neutralizes Biden.

I say McCain/Ridge is facing Obama/Biden, Obama/Biden is facing the perfect political storm, and cannot win. 

You will note that I have never said Obama cannot win before.

[J. J.]

Here is the map:

Obama/Biden versus McCain/Ridge

[J. J.]

The best running mate to combat Biden is Ridge... on many levels.

IMO, if Ridge is the VP Nominee, this election is over.  Obama can never get the electoral vote combination needed to win.  Romney on the ticket would be close to that as well, but Obama's odds would go up.

There is NO way that Obama can win against a McCain/Ridge ticket? Really?  I never realized that vice presidents could guarantee an election in August.

Ridge can.  He is hugely popular in PA and he can attract women, especially older women.  He is moderate on abortion, while still anti abortion.  He truly was raised working class and is a decorated veteran of Viet Nam.  When in congress, he represented Erie and down the boarder to outside of Pittsburgh,  He can influence a far chunk of OH as well.  He plays well everyplace and plays strongly in eastern OH and all of PA, excepting the Phila ghettos; he won re-election with the highest GOP vote in the fistory of the state.  He helps with 41 EV's.  He completely neutralizes Biden.

I say McCain/Ridge is facing Obama/Biden, Obama/Biden is facing the perfect political storm, and cannot win. 

You will note that I have never said Obama cannot win before.

I feel validated by knowing that my opinions are similar to those of a genuine political professional.  Now if someone would just give me a job. 

I have not been a professional for years, but I did predict PA correctly in 7 of the last eight times.

[J. J.]

Here is the map:

Obama/Biden versus McCain/Ridge

I think Obama/Biden can still win Biden's birth state.

He will, Hawaii.  However, both Bushes,  and Kerry didn't, and VP candidates Edwards, Bentson, Ferarro, Kemp did not win theirs.

[J. J.]

And there is no math that gives Obama a win without PA and Ohio.

Ridge probably brings in the most EV's of any person on either shortlist.

Even giving Obama all the tossups and throwing in VA, he loses.

[J. J.]

And there is no math that gives Obama a win without PA and Ohio.

Ridge probably brings in the most EV's of any person on either shortlist.

     I guess that this isn't a win then:

     I find it to be reasonable. Ridge will have absolutely zero effect in CO, NV, NM, IA, or VA. I figure Obama has at least a 50/50 shot at each of those states anyway.

Even in NV and CO, because of his abortion stance, he attracts the Hilary women.  Same in VA, but VA was a state subject to a terrorist attack.  That's why he's such a good candidate on so many levels.

[J. J.]

....if Ridge guaranteed both Pennsylvania and helps in Ohio, which he most certainly would not.

Fixed.

[J. J.]

Social conservatives won't stay home whatever Ridge does.  Even if he doesn't flip on abortion rights. 

I think that this is correct.  Ridge further is nuanced on abortion, as is the American electorate. 

On Ohio, it's exposure in those eastern media markets, Youngstown, Akron, and to a lesser extent, Cleveland.  Now, Ridge alone cannot carry Ohio, but he can increase the vote totals, kind of like, "McCain and the guy you know."