TV Maps

[Harry Hayfield]

I would like to start a new thread to accompany the polling section where members can post maps based on what "experts" say so that other members can comment on them. To break the ice so to speak, I woud like to contribute this map.

Broadcast: August 22nd 2008
Channel: Fox News
Programme: Your World with Cavuto
Map Source: Karl Rove and Company

Electoral College Tally
Republicans 194 ECV's
Democrats 260 ECV's
Tossups 84

[Harry Hayfield]

Broadcast: August 26th 2008
Channel: CNN
Programme: Democratic Convention Coverage
Map Source: CNN Estimates

Electoral College Tally
Republicans 189 ECV's
Democrats 221 ECV's
Tossups 128

[Harry Hayfield]

Broadcast: August 28th 2008
Channel: Fox News Channel
Programme: Special Report with Brit Hume
Map Source: Karl Rove

Obama 260
McCain 221
Tossups 57

[Harry Hayfield]

Broadcast: September 2nd 2008
Channel: CNN
Programme: The Situation Room
Map Source: CNN Estimates

Obama 226
McCain 189
Tossups 123

According to the chief GOP pollster, the effect of Palin would be thus:

Obama 221
McCain 216
Tossups 101

(The changes are: CO McCain, NM McCain, VA leans McCain)

[Harry Hayfield]

Broadcast: September 3rd 2008
Channel: CNN
Programme: The Situation Room
Map Source: CNN Estimates and CNN Polls

Lighter colours = leaners, Darker Colours = Bankers

Obama 243
McCain 189
Tossups 106

[Harry Hayfield]

Nobody has the balls to call it the way it is. Everybody's playing it safe. The only pure tossups in this election are Ohio, Virginia and Colorado. The rest are all leans/safe.

I would have to agree with you on that point. It seems as if following 2000 the big networks are being very cagey (in case they get accused of allowing one candidate to build up a head of steam). My personal feelings (which I won't commit to a projection until September 15th onwards) are:

Obama 264
McCain 229
Ind 3
Tossup 42

(The reason for Alaska going Independent is that the Alaskan Independence Party may say "Look, so we may have a VP nominee, but will that really get Alaska noticed? Vote AIP and Alaska will really get noticed!")

[Harry Hayfield]

Broadcast: September 7th 2008
Channel: Fox News
Programme: Fox News Sunday
Map Source: Karl Rove and Company

Obama 260
McCain 194
Tossups 84

Now I don't usually comment on these maps, but...

North Dakota, a tossup? What are they thinking???

North Dakota 2004: Bush 63% Kerry 35% Others 2%

[Harry Hayfield]

Broadcast: September 14th 2008
Channel: CNBC / MSNBC / NBC affliates
Programme: Meet the Press
Map Source: NBC Election Team

Obama 233
McCain 227
Tossups 78

(Lighter colours leaning, Darker colours bankers)

[Harry Hayfield]

Broadcast: September 16, 2008
Channel: FoxNews
Program: The O'Reilly Factor
Source: Real Clear Politics

Obama 207
McCain 227
Tossups 104

[Harry Hayfield]

Broadcast: September 24th 2008
Channel: Fox News
Programme: Fox and Friends
Map Source: RealClearPolitics.com

Obama 219
McCain 189
Tossups 130

I am intrigued as to why IN is being classed as a tossup. The last time it went Dem was in the 1964 Johnson landslide. They're not surely suggesting that IN is going to vote Dem are they?

[Harry Hayfield]

Show: Meet the Press
Broadcast: October 5th 2008
Network / Channel : NBC
Source: Chuck Todd, NBC Politics

let’s go to our surface. Here’s where we were in 2004, Obama being—representing the Kerry states here in blue, John McCain representing the Bush states in 2004 in red. Two eighty-six, 252; John Kerry came up 18 electoral votes short, or one Ohio. And here’s where we were last week, just to show you where the battleground was.

McCain 174
Obama 212
Tossups 152

And I want you to keep an eye as I change things to these states up here in the northern tier of the country, the industrial Midwest.

McCain 174
Obama 264
Tossups 100

And everything has moved, at least with the Kerry states, have moved out of toss-up and into the Obama column. Throw in the fact that he is up in Iowa and up in New Mexico, and right now, if the election were held today, we would say that Obama is up five or more points right now in enough states, 264 electoral votes. John McCain under 200, under 175. And as you see here, all, all of these states are Bush ‘04 states—Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Indiana, Colorado and Nevada.

[Harry Hayfield]

From the nightly news on France2.

Thanks for that.. I get Journal de France 2 every evening as well on TV5 Monde. I've set up a series link on my TIVO.

[Harry Hayfield]

The latest CNN map is, at last, quite fine:

toss-ups: NV, CO, MO, OH, VA, NC, FL.

Sure, Indiana may be threatened and NM may be won by Obama with a slighter margin than expected.

Sure, CO should be lost by McCain. MO and NC may be too far for Obama, eventually.

But it seems that CNN has now the best TV map or MSM map.
All the others have 1, 2 or more "strange" states.

And here is said map as broadcast on CNN's The Campaign Trail on CNN International on October 11th 2008.

[Harry Hayfield]

Programme: Fox News Sunday
Channel: Fox News
Broadcast: October 19th 2008
Produced by: Karl Rove and Company

Obama 313
McCain 171
Tossups 54

[Harry Hayfield]

Here's a very odd looking map from Fox News, published today on the Live Desk

Obama 318
McCain 171
Tossups 49

The various shadings are:

30% vote support = leaning
50% vote support = likely
90% vote support = solid

[Harry Hayfield]

Hubdub has produced an election map by asking it's users to assess what chance each candidate has of winning each state (and the interesting thing is the map produced is the same as the experts have produced of late)

Obama 375
McCain 163

[Harry Hayfield]

Final NBC Meet the Press Map (November 2nd 2008)

Obama 286
McCain 156
Tossups 96

[Harry Hayfield]

Final Fox News Sunday map from Karl Rove

Obama 311
McCain 160
Tossups 67