Winthrop/ETV Poll - August 2008 (11 Southern States)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 11:23:14 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2008 Elections
  2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Winthrop/ETV Poll - August 2008 (11 Southern States)
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Winthrop/ETV Poll - August 2008 (11 Southern States)  (Read 847 times)
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,157
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 20, 2008, 09:43:07 PM »

Results are due out tomorrow. (link)


When  I heard about this, I was hopeful that they were actually doing 11 separate state polls, or at least a large enough sample to make the subsamples relevant.  But a look at the methodology page they updated in the past couple of days has dashed that, even if they break out the per state results. 1088 Likely Voters overall means that Texas is likely to have about a 6% MoE in the survey and the other states even higher if they polled each State roughly equally to its population.  Maybe they'll have a large enough South Carolina subsample to make it worth while. 
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,875


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2008, 09:45:31 PM »

Well, this sounds useless.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2008, 09:49:19 PM »

This should be entertaining.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2008, 09:59:07 PM »

Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2008, 02:09:37 PM »

For those amused, here's the article lead.  Ernest's link has the internals.

http://www.charleston.net/news/2008/aug/22/mccain_leads_big_south51692/

Topline
McCain 51%
Obama 35%
Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2008, 05:02:47 PM »

For comparison, Bush won the Confederacy 57-42, so McCain's doing marginally better, I suppose?
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2008, 06:22:45 PM »

For comparison, Bush won the Confederacy 57-42, so McCain's doing marginally better, I suppose?

Not really of any statistical importance, but yes, I guess.

Just FYI, my 49-49-2 call would have McCain beating Obama by a little over 11% in the South.  Most of that is due to Texas and Virginia narrowing, which I expect.  Florida should naturally trend the other way, but doesn't make up for that.  Neither does including Arkansas or Tennessee.

However, the deep South I have narrowing a bit, figuring that white turnout will not be as high and black turnout should be greater.  However, if for some magical reason, white turnout were as high in the Deep South as it was in 2004, the increase in black turnout I suspect would be negated in large part by the erosion of white Democrats at even greater levels than 2004.  At least that is what I see.

Doesn't mean that this poll has any validity, however.  Tongue
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,019


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2008, 12:42:20 AM »

Yeah! Charleston's finest polling firm gives us 100% accurate poll numbers! The South is McCain country!
Logged
exopolitician
MATCHU[D]
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,892
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2008, 10:09:52 PM »

McCain leads in Hell...how surprising.
Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,677


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2008, 10:35:06 PM »

I wasn't expecting McCain up 16 in the Confederacy...maybe I've missed them, but I've only seen McCain consistently lead by 15+ in AL, TN, and LA.  Are they dragging the average up by that much?
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,019


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2008, 10:48:50 PM »

I wasn't expecting McCain up 16 in the Confederacy...maybe I've missed them, but I've only seen McCain consistently lead by 15+ in AL, TN, and LA.  Are they dragging the average up by that much?

It's possible considering he's threatening to break 60% in Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, and maybe even Arkansas (we need a poll from there). AR is also one of those southern states with a small black population which will hurt Obama.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.213 seconds with 15 queries.