For comparison, Bush won the Confederacy 57-42, so McCain's doing marginally better, I suppose?
Not really of any statistical importance, but yes, I guess.
Just FYI, my 49-49-2 call would have McCain beating Obama by a little over 11% in the South. Most of that is due to Texas and Virginia narrowing, which I expect. Florida should naturally trend the other way, but doesn't make up for that. Neither does including Arkansas or Tennessee.
However, the deep South I have narrowing a bit, figuring that white turnout will not be as high and black turnout should be greater. However, if for some magical reason, white turnout were as high in the Deep South as it was in 2004, the increase in black turnout I suspect would be negated in large part by the erosion of white Democrats at even greater levels than 2004. At least that is what I see.
Doesn't mean that this poll has any validity, however.
