MS: Rasmussen: McCain leads by double digits

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Mississippi President by Rasmussen on 2008-08-21

Summary: D: 43%, R: 56%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details


McCain is now viewed favorably by 63%, Obama by 44%.

The Republican leads 84% to 13% among white voters, while African-Americans favor the Democrat by a 97% to 2% margin.

McCain is viewed favorably by 88% of white voters and 18% of black voters.

For Obama, the numbers are reversed. He gets favorable reviews from 92% of black voters and only 18% of white voters.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

43% is probably Obama's ceiling. Hopefully these numbers will quiet the "Obama can make McCain spend money in MS" crowd.

[Rowan]

This is the most Obama can get in the state.

97% of blacks? Crazy.

[Sam Spade]

Racial polarization at its finest.

Just for memories' sake:

Bush-Kerry 2004
Whites 85-14 Bush
Blacks 87-12 Kerry

I expect blacks to be somewhere around this poll.  13% for whites sounds right too.  I really don't think there's any way it can be pushed under 10%, but we'll see.

[agcatter]

Is the Obama campaign still "looking at Mississippi"?

[Verily]

Those numbers must, I think, be slightly underestimating the size of the black vote in MS. But certainly the winner in MS is not in doubt.

[Sam Spade]

Those numbers must, I think, be slightly underestimating the size of the black vote in MS. But certainly the winner in MS is not in doubt.

Assuming that there are no "others" in Mississippi (which there are, maybe 1-2% of the vote maximum which votes Democratic but at nowhere near the black level, but we'll ignore it here), this sample translates into about a 64% white, 36% black breakdown.

Non-white voters were 35% of the vote according to exit polls in 2004.  Blacks are 37.1% of the vote, as of 2006.  With non-white voters total, you bump up to about 40%, but these are low-turnout types of people (the other non-whites).

I have personally said that I don't think non-whites can be higher than 40% of the vote in MS, but even in that situation whites would need to be underenthused.  If whites are normally enthused, I expect 38%.  If they're highly enthused, I expect 36%.  Given what's presently going in the race, etc., I expect the latter two to be more likely to happen now (whereas I may have thought the first two earlier).

So adjust if you wish or want to, or don't. 

[auburntiger]

Racial polarization at its finest.

Just for memories' sake:

Bush-Kerry 2004
Whites 85-14 Bush
Blacks 87-12 Kerry

I expect blacks to be somewhere around this poll.  13% for whites sounds right too.  I really don't think there's any way it can be pushed under 10%, but we'll see.

I'm surprised Bush got that high of a percentage of the black vote.

[Sbane]

Haha gotta love this racial polarization.

*Note to Self*- Never set foot in Mississippi.

[Beet]

When God made Harry (D-MS) he broke the mold.

[Lief 🗽]

43% is probably Obama's ceiling. Hopefully these numbers will quiet the "Obama can make McCain spend money in MS" crowd.

Yeah, all zero of them.

[Eraserhead]

This state and it's racism (from the whites and the blacks) is disgusting but not unexpected. That's poverty for you.