Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 58,178
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
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« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2008, 01:32:55 PM » |
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What's also interesting:
SurveyUSA may give us a glimpse at likely state turnout. They always note the following in their releases:
"Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 Kentucky adults 08/09/08 through 08/11/08. Of the adults, 854 identified themselves as registered voters. Of them, 636 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the general election on 11/04/08. Kentucky has 8 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Kentucky by 20 points in 2004 and by 15 points in 2000."
"Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Virginia adults 08/08/08 through 08/10/08. Of them, 782 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 655 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Virginia has 13 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Virginia by 8 points in both 2004 and 2000. As evidence of Virginia's critical role in any 2008 victory, a number of the vice presidential running mates under consideration are from Virginia."
"Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Oregon adults 08/02/08 through 08/04/08. Of them, 809 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 629 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Oregon has 7 Electoral College votes. John Kerry carried Oregon by 4 points in 2004; Al Gore carried Oregon by four-tenths of a point in 2000."
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That means 67% of KY's Voting Age Population is currently likely to vote in November. The figures for Virginia are 73% and 70% for Oregon.
In 2004 the turnout among these states' Voting Age Population was 57% for KY, 57% for Virginia and 68% for Oregon.
Could turnout really be up by 10% in some states compared with 2004 ?
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