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  KY: Survey USA: McCain up by 18
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Author Topic: KY: Survey USA: McCain up by 18  (Read 1045 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: August 12, 2008, 01:08:16 pm »

New Poll: Kentucky President by Survey USA on 2008-08-11

Summary: D: 37%, R: 55%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2008, 01:11:41 pm »

Looks OK. Obama will have a tough time getting a better result than Kerry ...
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Beet
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« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2008, 01:15:43 pm »

Looks OK. Obama will have a tough time getting a better result than Kerry ...

At least he'll probably do better than he did in the primary. I suspect he'll also do better in Western Kentucky than Eastern. Where this really helps McCain is not so much Kentucky's 8 EVs, but the similarities between Kentucky and portions of nearby states, including Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2008, 01:22:18 pm »

Sam Spade 50-50 election numbers:

Kentucky 39.00   59.00   2.00   R+20.00

Sam Spade sez - election right now Obama +2.00

Once again, it's almost too good of a fit.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2008, 01:32:22 pm »

Republican 39% (40%): McCain 86% (92%); Obama 10% (7%)

Democrat 50% (44%): McCain 34% (28%); Obama 59% (71%)

Independent 9% (17%): McCain 43% (56%); Obama 38% (41%)

Conservative 32% (39%): McCain 84% (84%); Obama 11% (16%)

Moderate 50% (46%): McCain 50% (50%); Obama 45% (49%)

Liberal 12% (15%): McCain 19% (21%); Obama 79% (78%)

(denotes 2004 exit poll data)

Top issue - the economy (50%): McCain 54%; Obama 41%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2008, 01:32:55 pm »

What's also interesting:

SurveyUSA may give us a glimpse at likely state turnout. They always note the following in their releases:

"Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 Kentucky adults 08/09/08 through 08/11/08. Of the adults, 854 identified themselves as registered voters. Of them, 636 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the general election on 11/04/08. Kentucky has 8 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Kentucky by 20 points in 2004 and by 15 points in 2000."

"Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Virginia adults 08/08/08 through 08/10/08. Of them, 782 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 655 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Virginia has 13 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Virginia by 8 points in both 2004 and 2000. As evidence of Virginia's critical role in any 2008 victory, a number of the vice presidential running mates under consideration are from Virginia."

"Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Oregon adults 08/02/08 through 08/04/08. Of them, 809 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 629 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Oregon has 7 Electoral College votes. John Kerry carried Oregon by 4 points in 2004; Al Gore carried Oregon by four-tenths of a point in 2000."

...

That means 67% of KY's Voting Age Population is currently likely to vote in November. The figures for Virginia are 73% and 70% for Oregon.

In 2004 the turnout among these states' Voting Age Population was 57% for KY, 57% for Virginia and 68% for Oregon.

Could turnout really be up by 10% in some states compared with 2004 ?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6 on: August 12, 2008, 01:46:38 pm »

SUSA always has a loose LV screen.  Ignore it.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2008, 01:50:45 pm »

Obama will do just as badly as Kerry did in KY.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2008, 02:26:54 pm »

I wonder if McCain will break 60%... tough call.
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Vsanto5
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« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2008, 03:54:28 pm »

How the hell did Bill Clinton win Kentucky twice?
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #10 on: August 13, 2008, 06:29:30 am »

How the hell did Bill Clinton win Kentucky twice?

He was a white Southern good ole' boy who ran as a moderate Democrat with quiet times.
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Franzl
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« Reply #11 on: August 13, 2008, 06:50:55 am »

How the hell did Bill Clinton win Kentucky twice?

He was a white Southern good ole' boy who ran as a moderate Democrat with quiet times.

Isn't it sad that people really care about that?
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #12 on: August 13, 2008, 07:03:48 am »

How the hell did Bill Clinton win Kentucky twice?

He was a white Southern good ole' boy who ran as a moderate Democrat with quiet times.

Isn't it sad that people really care about that?

The only two Democrats elected in the last 30 years were two Southern Governors who ran as moderates.
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Franzl
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« Reply #13 on: August 13, 2008, 07:10:06 am »

How the hell did Bill Clinton win Kentucky twice?

He was a white Southern good ole' boy who ran as a moderate Democrat with quiet times.

Isn't it sad that people really care about that?

The only two Democrats elected in the last 30 years were two Southern Governors who ran as moderates.

So? Isn't it still pathetic that you have to be a good ole boy to win as a Democrat in Kentucky? Doesn't that say quite a bit about the voters there?
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #14 on: August 13, 2008, 07:35:58 am »

How the hell did Bill Clinton win Kentucky twice?

He was a white Southern good ole' boy who ran as a moderate Democrat with quiet times.

Isn't it sad that people really care about that?

The only two Democrats elected in the last 30 years were two Southern Governors who ran as moderates.

So? Isn't it still pathetic that you have to be a good ole boy to win as a Democrat in Kentucky? Doesn't that say quite a bit about the voters there?

I don't understand your point?
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Franzl
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« Reply #15 on: August 13, 2008, 01:32:26 pm »

How the hell did Bill Clinton win Kentucky twice?

He was a white Southern good ole' boy who ran as a moderate Democrat with quiet times.

Isn't it sad that people really care about that?

The only two Democrats elected in the last 30 years were two Southern Governors who ran as moderates.

So? Isn't it still pathetic that you have to be a good ole boy to win as a Democrat in Kentucky? Doesn't that say quite a bit about the voters there?

I don't understand your point?

My point is that I think it could be quite possible that a politician with exactly the same politics from....let's say, California or New York...wouldn't have won Kentucky.

So I'm saying it's pretty embarrassing that that matters so much to Kentucky voters.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #16 on: August 13, 2008, 04:13:09 pm »

How the hell did Bill Clinton win Kentucky twice?

He was a white Southern good ole' boy who ran as a moderate Democrat with quiet times.

Isn't it sad that people really care about that?

The only two Democrats elected in the last 30 years were two Southern Governors who ran as moderates.

So? Isn't it still pathetic that you have to be a good ole boy to win as a Democrat in Kentucky? Doesn't that say quite a bit about the voters there?

I don't understand your point?

My point is that I think it could be quite possible that a politician with exactly the same politics from....let's say, California or New York...wouldn't have won Kentucky.

So I'm saying it's pretty embarrassing that that matters so much to Kentucky voters.

I don't think that is the reason. Arizona isn't anywhere near Kentucky...yet McCain will win Kentucky.
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War on Want
Evilmexicandictator
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« Reply #17 on: August 13, 2008, 05:16:58 pm »

How the hell did Bill Clinton win Kentucky twice?

He was a white Southern good ole' boy who ran as a moderate Democrat with quiet times.

Isn't it sad that people really care about that?

The only two Democrats elected in the last 30 years were two Southern Governors who ran as moderates.

So? Isn't it still pathetic that you have to be a good ole boy to win as a Democrat in Kentucky? Doesn't that say quite a bit about the voters there?

I don't understand your point?

My point is that I think it could be quite possible that a politician with exactly the same politics from....let's say, California or New York...wouldn't have won Kentucky.

So I'm saying it's pretty embarrassing that that matters so much to Kentucky voters.

I don't think that is the reason. Arizona isn't anywhere near Kentucky...yet McCain will win Kentucky.
*slaps head*
You are missing the whole point Naso...
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #18 on: August 13, 2008, 05:28:11 pm »

How the hell did Bill Clinton win Kentucky twice?

He was a white Southern good ole' boy who ran as a moderate Democrat with quiet times.

Isn't it sad that people really care about that?

The only two Democrats elected in the last 30 years were two Southern Governors who ran as moderates.

So? Isn't it still pathetic that you have to be a good ole boy to win as a Democrat in Kentucky? Doesn't that say quite a bit about the voters there?

I don't understand your point?

My point is that I think it could be quite possible that a politician with exactly the same politics from....let's say, California or New York...wouldn't have won Kentucky.

So I'm saying it's pretty embarrassing that that matters so much to Kentucky voters.

I don't think that is the reason. Arizona isn't anywhere near Kentucky...yet McCain will win Kentucky.
*slaps head*
You are missing the whole point Naso...

Hey, I was tracking an election while your momma was wiping your tush! I get your point, I just think it is more about the politics rather than location.
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Franzl
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« Reply #19 on: August 18, 2008, 04:10:20 pm »

How the hell did Bill Clinton win Kentucky twice?

He was a white Southern good ole' boy who ran as a moderate Democrat with quiet times.

Isn't it sad that people really care about that?

The only two Democrats elected in the last 30 years were two Southern Governors who ran as moderates.

So? Isn't it still pathetic that you have to be a good ole boy to win as a Democrat in Kentucky? Doesn't that say quite a bit about the voters there?

I don't understand your point?

My point is that I think it could be quite possible that a politician with exactly the same politics from....let's say, California or New York...wouldn't have won Kentucky.

So I'm saying it's pretty embarrassing that that matters so much to Kentucky voters.

I don't think that is the reason. Arizona isn't anywhere near Kentucky...yet McCain will win Kentucky.
*slaps head*
You are missing the whole point Naso...

Hey, I was tracking an election while your momma was wiping your tush! I get your point, I just think it is more about the politics rather than location.

If it makes you feel better... (I give up....like talking to a brick wall actually.)
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Beet
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« Reply #20 on: August 18, 2008, 07:20:40 pm »

How the hell did Bill Clinton win Kentucky twice?

He was a white Southern good ole' boy who ran as a moderate Democrat with quiet times.

Isn't it sad that people really care about that?

The only two Democrats elected in the last 30 years were two Southern Governors who ran as moderates.

So? Isn't it still pathetic that you have to be a good ole boy to win as a Democrat in Kentucky? Doesn't that say quite a bit about the voters there?

I don't understand your point?

My point is that I think it could be quite possible that a politician with exactly the same politics from....let's say, California or New York...wouldn't have won Kentucky.

So I'm saying it's pretty embarrassing that that matters so much to Kentucky voters.

I don't think that is the reason. Arizona isn't anywhere near Kentucky...yet McCain will win Kentucky.
*slaps head*
You are missing the whole point Naso...

Hey, I was tracking an election while your momma was wiping your tush! I get your point, I just think it is more about the politics rather than location.

He is saying that a Democratic politician with the exact same politics would need to be perceived as a 'good ole boy' from the south to do well in Kentucky, even if he had the exact same politics and was running against the exact same Republican as someone from a northern state.
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