Recession Watch

[afleitch]

May as well start as we mean to go on I've opened this up for posting and discussion of a possible slide of the British economy into recession. As joyous as it would feel to see Gordon Browns record felled in one swoop and put an end to his stuttering 'economic growth' rants at PMQ's, I am feeling the pinch. I am having a 2% pay rise imposed on me (we may strike again) for the next three years and the 10p tax band scrap still affects me (when do I get my rebate. September?) and cost of living increases are noticeable.

First up today:

Sterling falls to 12 year low

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7560122.stm

[Јas]

The rest of Europe seems to be beating you to recession...

[dead0man]

We're talking about Europe here so the first step in solving the problem will be finding out who to blame and punish them for it.  Potential culprits:
Bush
Muslims
Jews
Russians
Americans
One of your own
OPEC
over cooked pasta
Starbucks
Turkey
Greenland
tourists from Canada
the end of colonization
rain
the number 7
China
Socrates
the EU
the UN
NATO
Attila the Hun
Jesus
the Picts
global warming
Microsoft

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

We're talking about Europe here so the first step in solving the problem will be finding out who to blame and punish them for it.  Potential culprits:
Bush
Muslims
Jews
Russians
Americans
One of your own
OPEC
over cooked pasta
Starbucks
Turkey
Greenland
tourists from Canada
the end of colonization
rain
the number 7
China
Socrates
the EU
the UN
NATO
Attila the Hun
Jesus
the Picts
global warming
Microsoft

If this was done to make laugh it worked on me.

No, the most "accused" for recession in Europe I heard are some you did not quote:

-US subprimes crisis
-prices of raw materials (especially food and oil)

Europeans can sometimes be laughable, but they can also sometimes say pertinent things...

[Cubby]

Gordon Brown is on borrowed time as it is, I doubt a recession could do any more harm to him.

And as long as we're talking about the British economy, what kind of name is Taylor Wimpey? Seriously, thats as bad as the London Silly Nannies:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHnd1dNAYH4

[Tender Branson]

The rest of Europe seems to be beating you to recession...

Not so in Austria (yet).

GDP is up 0.4% compared with the last quarter and up 2% with 1 year ago. Registered unemployment is down once again by 3.6% compared with 1 year ago while the unemployment rate is steady at about 4%. Still, inflation is rather high at 3.8%, but sinking. Exports are up 5% compared with 1 year ago. The current account surplus is expected to hit 4% of the GDP and the budget is about even.

[afleitch]

UK recession 'likely' in the next 6 to 9 months

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7566792.stm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

UK recession 'likely' in the next 6 to 9 months

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7566792.stm

Report by the British Chambers of Commerce. But look...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

lol

Totally shameless.

[afleitch]

UK economic growth at standstill; UK economic growth ground to a halt between April and June, according to the latest official data.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7576274.stm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not a surprise (or at least it shouldn't be) as the earlier estimate did look ever-so-slightly optimistic (especially in the light of the contractions in the other big European economies). I know a couple of shopkeepers and so on and most seemed to find June especially tough for some reason.

Though I'm almost tempted to wonder whether all of this misses the point; insofar as people are suffering or likely to suffer from the economic downturn, they're suffering already (and have been for months). It makes very little real difference to ordinary people whether the economy eventually shrinks for two quarters in a row, except perhaps in an abstract, almost symbolic way. Inflation (especially food prices and so on; a lot of things have gone up a hell of a lot over past couple of months) and unemployment are more important (or at least more relevant), I think. Though obviously everything is connected and so on and so forth. That probably made less sense written down than it did in my head. And it might look like I'm trying to argue something that I'm not. Anyway. I knew what I meant.

[afleitch]

It makes very little real difference to ordinary people whether the economy eventually shrinks for two quarters in a row, except perhaps in an abstract, almost symbolic way. Inflation (especially food prices and so on; a lot of things have gone up a hell of a lot over past couple of months) and unemployment are more important (or at least more relevant), I think. Though obviously everything is connected and so on and so forth. That probably made less sense written down than it did in my head. And it might look like I'm trying to argue something that I'm not. Anyway. I knew what I meant.

Oh I quite agree. But it will, thankfully end Gordon's 'facts in your face' defence at PMQ's which was doing him no good. Cameron would talk about bread and Brown would talk about the balance book. Whether Cameron gave a sh-t about the price of bread and Brown didn't is neither here nor there. The message from Number 10 came across as detached and unsympathetic. Talking about 'quarters of sustain growth' means nothing to the voters.

[afleitch]

Downturn could be the worst for 60 years says Chancellor

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7589739.stm

The chancellor has insisted it is his duty to be straight with the public, after telling a newspaper the UK faces its worst economic crisis in 60 years. Alistair Darling told the Guardian the downturn would be more "profound and long-lasting" than most had feared.

I have to praise Darling; his honesty is refreshing and makes a change from his quiet facade. However these sound like the words of a man who knows he is being shifted from the Treasury. There is a strong likelyhood that there will be a re-shuffle and that Brown will attempt to shore up support by increasing public borrowing, breaking his own 'golden rule' and splashing out on what may be a voter free for all of incentives and non means tested freebies.

That's assuming that the public will like that; I don't think they will.