So Russia and Georgia just went to war

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If Russia tries to occupy Georgia proper (most likely with a puppet government rather than annexation if they do) I'd say South Lebanon would be a more apt analogy than Sudetenland.

[War on Want]

I place blame on both countries but this should be a short, quick war in which Russia defeats Georgia in about a week and a half and South Ossentia gets what it wants.

Pretty much this. I don't expect this war too last much longer than 2 or 3 weeks.

[J. J.]

I place blame on both countries but this should be a short, quick war in which Russia defeats Georgia in about a week and a half and South Ossentia gets what it wants.

Pretty much this. I don't expect this war too last much longer than 2 or 3 weeks.

Isn't that what they said about Chechnya?

[War on Want]

I place blame on both countries but this should be a short, quick war in which Russia defeats Georgia in about a week and a half and South Ossentia gets what it wants.

Pretty much this. I don't expect this war too last much longer than 2 or 3 weeks.

Isn't that what they said about Chechnya?

Yes but there won't be the kind of resistance in Georgia as there was in Chechnya after the Russians are finished defeating the Georgians. I expect there to be a fairly strong insurgency for quite a while but it is nothing the Russians won't be able to handle.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I place blame on both countries but this should be a short, quick war in which Russia defeats Georgia in about a week and a half and South Ossentia gets what it wants.

Pretty much this. I don't expect this war too last much longer than 2 or 3 weeks.

Isn't that what they said about Chechnya?

Yes but there won't be the kind of resistance in Georgia as there was in Chechnya after the Russians are finished defeating the Georgians. I expect there to be a fairly strong insurgency for quite a while but it is nothing the Russians won't be able to handle.

Doubtful. If anything it'd be much worse than Chechnya. Georgia is a country prone to guerrilla warfare and the Turks and Azeris will be sure to provide any insurgency with a steady supply of weapons.

[War on Want]

I place blame on both countries but this should be a short, quick war in which Russia defeats Georgia in about a week and a half and South Ossentia gets what it wants.

Pretty much this. I don't expect this war too last much longer than 2 or 3 weeks.

Isn't that what they said about Chechnya?

Yes but there won't be the kind of resistance in Georgia as there was in Chechnya after the Russians are finished defeating the Georgians. I expect there to be a fairly strong insurgency for quite a while but it is nothing the Russians won't be able to handle.

Doubtful. If anything it'd be much worse than Chechnya. Georgia is a country prone to guerrilla warfare and the Turks and Azeris will be sure to provide any insurgency with a steady supply of weapons.

I agree with the Azeris for sure but I am doubtful with the Turks supplying the Georgians with anything. Also there will be a significant part of the population that will colaborate with the Russians.

[Hash]

I place blame on both countries but this should be a short, quick war in which Russia defeats Georgia in about a week and a half and South Ossentia gets what it wants.

Pretty much this. I don't expect this war too last much longer than 2 or 3 weeks.

Isn't that what they said about Chechnya?

Yes but there won't be the kind of resistance in Georgia as there was in Chechnya after the Russians are finished defeating the Georgians. I expect there to be a fairly strong insurgency for quite a while but it is nothing the Russians won't be able to handle.

I strongly disagree.

[Jake]

Yes but there won't be the kind of resistance in Georgia as there was in Chechnya after the Russians are finished defeating the Georgians. I expect there to be a fairly strong insurgency for quite a while but it is nothing the Russians won't be able to handle.

How do you figure exactly? Georgia is something like 80% ethnic Georgian with some Azeris, Armenians, and very few Russians. That's comparable to the 90% figure of Chechens in Chechnya. And if anything, arms will be easier to come by considering Georgia's neighbors.

[Daniel Adams]

I place blame on both countries but this should be a short, quick war in which Russia defeats Georgia in about a week and a half and South Ossentia gets what it wants.

Pretty much this. I don't expect this war too last much longer than 2 or 3 weeks.

Isn't that what they said about Chechnya?

Yes but there won't be the kind of resistance in Georgia as there was in Chechnya after the Russians are finished defeating the Georgians. I expect there to be a fairly strong insurgency for quite a while but it is nothing the Russians won't be able to handle.

Doubtful. If anything it'd be much worse than Chechnya. Georgia is a country prone to guerrilla warfare and the Turks and Azeris will be sure to provide any insurgency with a steady supply of weapons.

I agree with the Azeris for sure but I am doubtful with the Turks supplying the Georgians with anything. Also there will be a significant part of the population that will colaborate with the Russians.

Why do you think some Georgians would collaborate with the Russians? I'm sure most of them despite Russia by now (outside of Abkhazia and South Ossetia of course).

BTW, Russia has accused Turkey of supporting Georgia by supplying it with weapons and ammuniton (story here). What Russia is hoping to achieve by angering Turkey I can't fathom.

[War on Want]

I place blame on both countries but this should be a short, quick war in which Russia defeats Georgia in about a week and a half and South Ossentia gets what it wants.

Pretty much this. I don't expect this war too last much longer than 2 or 3 weeks.

Isn't that what they said about Chechnya?

Yes but there won't be the kind of resistance in Georgia as there was in Chechnya after the Russians are finished defeating the Georgians. I expect there to be a fairly strong insurgency for quite a while but it is nothing the Russians won't be able to handle.

Doubtful. If anything it'd be much worse than Chechnya. Georgia is a country prone to guerrilla warfare and the Turks and Azeris will be sure to provide any insurgency with a steady supply of weapons.

I agree with the Azeris for sure but I am doubtful with the Turks supplying the Georgians with anything. Also there will be a significant part of the population that will colaborate with the Russians.

Why do you think some Georgians would collaborate with the Russians? I'm sure most of them despite Russia by now (outside of Abkhazia and South Ossetia of course).

BTW, Russia has accused Turkey of supporting Georgia by supplying it with weapons and ammuniton (story here). What Russia is hoping to achieve by angering Turkey I can't fathom.

I meant ethnic Russians.

Well it seems like I am being proven wrong here but still I wouldn't expect an insurgency to the scale of Chechnya.

[Colin]

I place blame on both countries but this should be a short, quick war in which Russia defeats Georgia in about a week and a half and South Ossentia gets what it wants.

Pretty much this. I don't expect this war too last much longer than 2 or 3 weeks.

Isn't that what they said about Chechnya?

Yes but there won't be the kind of resistance in Georgia as there was in Chechnya after the Russians are finished defeating the Georgians. I expect there to be a fairly strong insurgency for quite a while but it is nothing the Russians won't be able to handle.

Doubtful. If anything it'd be much worse than Chechnya. Georgia is a country prone to guerrilla warfare and the Turks and Azeris will be sure to provide any insurgency with a steady supply of weapons.

I agree with the Azeris for sure but I am doubtful with the Turks supplying the Georgians with anything. Also there will be a significant part of the population that will colaborate with the Russians.

Why do you think some Georgians would collaborate with the Russians? I'm sure most of them despite Russia by now (outside of Abkhazia and South Ossetia of course).

BTW, Russia has accused Turkey of supporting Georgia by supplying it with weapons and ammuniton (story here). What Russia is hoping to achieve by angering Turkey I can't fathom.

I meant ethnic Russians.

Russians are only 5.7% of the population. This isn't like the Ukraine or Estonia were large portions of the population are Russian or think of themselves as Russian.

[War on Want]

I know they only make up 6% of the population but it doesn't take much to come up with an occupation force and base of support among the populace, especially if you are Russia. I wouldn't be surprised if Ossetians make up a large part of it.

[Colin]

I know they only make up 6% of the population but it doesn't take much to come up with an occupation force and base of support among the populace, especially if you are Russia. I wouldn't be surprised if Ossetians make up a large part of it.

Chechnya has a Russian population that is nearly as large, 3.7% versus 5.7%, and it was a mess to try and control. If Putin and Medvedev make the mistake of trying to occupy Georgia they will not only have nearly complete condemnation from the international community but also another Chechnya but on a much larger scale.

[War on Want]

I know they only make up 6% of the population but it doesn't take much to come up with an occupation force and base of support among the populace, especially if you are Russia. I wouldn't be surprised if Ossetians make up a large part of it.

Chechnya has a Russian population that is nearly as large, 3.7% versus 5.7%, and it was a mess to try and control. If Putin and Medvedev make the mistake of trying to occupy Georgia they will not only have nearly complete condemnation from the international community but also another Chechnya but on a much larger scale.

Well I do agree with you that there will be a large insurgency, just not as large as Chechnya's. Perhaps I should change my wording:
I think the convential war will be very short, sharp and quick but the insurgency should play out over a year or so but less bloodily than Chechnya with rebels mostly having strongholds in the mountains.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's no sane reason for Russia to occupy Georgia. Installing a more favourable (but perhaps not too favourable, actually...) would seem more likely, if it comes to that.

[Jake]

Well I do agree with you that there will be a large insurgency, just not as large as Chechnya's. Perhaps I should change my wording:
I think the convential war will be very short, sharp and quick but the insurgency should play out over a year or so but less bloodily than Chechnya with rebels mostly having strongholds in the mountains.

Accepting you were wrong is fine too.

[War on Want]

Well I do agree with you that there will be a large insurgency, just not as large as Chechnya's. Perhaps I should change my wording:
I think the convential war will be very short, sharp and quick but the insurgency should play out over a year or so but less bloodily than Chechnya with rebels mostly having strongholds in the mountains.

Accepting you were wrong is fine too.

Okay fine I was mostly wrong but I don't see Georgia becoming the bloodbath Chechnya was for a variety of reasons.

[War on Want]

There's no sane reason for Russia to occupy Georgia. Installing a more favourable (but perhaps not too favourable, actually...) would seem more likely, if it comes to that.

But would the Georgians accept that? I doubt it, after a war with Russia so I expect Russia to have "administrative" forces in Georgia along with Abkhazia and Ossetia.

[King]

Russians forcing regime change in Georgia by force won't work.  Both the people of Georgia and the international community will just write it off as a puppet government.  Russia would've been better off trying to pressure a regime change with old fashioned KGB tactics (like they do in Ukraine) than forcing it.

[Daniel Adams]

Russians forcing regime change in Georgia by force won't work.  Both the people of Georgia and the international community will just write it off as a puppet government.  Russia would've been better off trying to pressure a regime change with old fashioned KGB tactics (like they do in Ukraine) than forcing it.

Russia could rig a few elections easily. I have no faith in the international community after they allowed Georgia to be occupied by Russia, so I'm sure the puppet Georgian government will receive international recognition eventually.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle.

[The Mikado]

Russians forcing regime change in Georgia by force won't work.  Both the people of Georgia and the international community will just write it off as a puppet government.  Russia would've been better off trying to pressure a regime change with old fashioned KGB tactics (like they do in Ukraine) than forcing it.

It'd be a pariah, but Belarus and Uzbekistan are pariahs, and Russia's fine with that as long as they are pro-Russian pariahs.

[Хahar 🤔]

Russians forcing regime change in Georgia by force won't work.  Both the people of Georgia and the international community will just write it off as a puppet government.  Russia would've been better off trying to pressure a regime change with old fashioned KGB tactics (like they do in Ukraine) than forcing it.

Russia could rig a few elections easily. I have no faith in the international community after they allowed Georgia to be occupied by Russia, so I'm sure the puppet Georgian government will receive international recognition eventually.

You once had that faith?

[2952-0-0]

Turkey has been sending weapons and power to Georgia, as well as deploying naval vessels off Batumi.

Can they get riled up by Russians returning to their border?

If there's a huge flow of refugees into Turkey then they could claim this as a security issue and invoke its NATO membership rights. That's exactly how NATO intervention in Yugoslavia went ahead.

Cutting off the BTC pipeline would obviously harm their economic status in the region.

Could be a sudden move. I bet the generals in Ankara aren't sleeping well.

[J. J.]

I place blame on both countries but this should be a short, quick war in which Russia defeats Georgia in about a week and a half and South Ossentia gets what it wants.

Pretty much this. I don't expect this war too last much longer than 2 or 3 weeks.

Isn't that what they said about Chechnya?

Yes but there won't be the kind of resistance in Georgia as there was in Chechnya after the Russians are finished defeating the Georgians. I expect there to be a fairly strong insurgency for quite a while but it is nothing the Russians won't be able to handle.

Doubtful. If anything it'd be much worse than Chechnya. Georgia is a country prone to guerrilla warfare and the Turks and Azeris will be sure to provide any insurgency with a steady supply of weapons.

I have to agree with BRTD (circle this date on your calender).

Georgia is larger, both geographically and win population.

Georgia is (or possibly was) a nation state and had international recognition.  It has a lot of contacts outside.

Georgia has a sea coast and borders, with some bordering nations not friendly to Russia.

Russia is a bear and Georgia is the bear trap.  Basically, if it goes beyond South Ossentia, the trap is sprung.