OR: Survey USA: Obama's OR Lead Steady at 3% (user search)
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  OR: Survey USA: Obama's OR Lead Steady at 3% (search mode)
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Author Topic: OR: Survey USA: Obama's OR Lead Steady at 3%  (Read 1555 times)
Gustaf
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Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« on: August 07, 2008, 11:16:43 AM »

Why do we all assume Oregon is not competitive?  It was pretty close the last 2 times.

Are you being serious? It's not gonna be as rock solid Obama as a lot of people here think, but it's not going to be very close. It wasn't even that close in 2004.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2008, 04:52:05 PM »

well, I don't predict OR to be all that close, BUT in a world where some close polls are causing some to find NC to be a battleground, and the same is true in Indiana, and some believe that ND, MT and AK might be competitive, based on polling, I was wondering why we just assume that OR, which has been quite close of late, is in the bag for Obama.

2004 result was 51%-47%.  I'd call that close.  Closer than Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, Florida... if memory serves

Yes, but Oregon is a state that looks favourable to Obama. And this poll has to be nonsense. No way is Oregon this close given the national numbers. I would expect Obama to be ahead by high single digits right now.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2008, 05:11:50 PM »

well, I don't predict OR to be all that close, BUT in a world where some close polls are causing some to find NC to be a battleground, and the same is true in Indiana, and some believe that ND, MT and AK might be competitive, based on polling, I was wondering why we just assume that OR, which has been quite close of late, is in the bag for Obama.

2004 result was 51%-47%.  I'd call that close.  Closer than Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, Florida... if memory serves

Yes, but Oregon is a state that looks favourable to Obama. And this poll has to be nonsense. No way is Oregon this close given the national numbers. I would expect Obama to be ahead by high single digits right now.
I don't doubt that you are correct, I do however, prefer more analysis than "Oregon is a state that looks favorable to Obama". Sure this poll is likely crap, but haven't we seen a couple of polls showing a close race in OR?  Given the history, can we assume it's not competitive at all just based on a sense.

We can never know for sure. But I look at it this way. Oregon was 7% more Democratic margin-wise in 2004 than the national average. It seems to be the kind of state (western, high number of non-religious, etc) where Obama does pretty well. Given that I have trouble seeing his relative margin being worse than Kerry's. Nationally, I'd say Obama is still  marginally ahead (1% or so). So I'd guess he is AT LEAST ahead by 8% in Oregon probably more. Maybe I'm wrong somewhere, maybe it is a little bit lower, but 3% seems too little to me. But, as I said, there is no way of knowing. I could be wrong, but based on history and based on polls I don't think Oregon is this close.
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