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October 31, 2020, 08:07:36 PM

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  OR: Survey USA: Obama's OR Lead Steady at 3%
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Author Topic: OR: Survey USA: Obama's OR Lead Steady at 3%  (Read 1402 times)
Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« on: August 06, 2008, 09:58:00 PM »

New Poll: Oregon President by Survey USA on 2008-08-04

Summary: D: 48%, R: 45%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2008, 10:20:34 PM »

Nine point gap between senate and president is the only believeable part
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2008, 10:27:30 PM »

The cross-tabs on this poll look weird.... overly high male sample, excessively high Republican sample, too many college grads, and too many people from metro Portland....

This seems like an outlier to me, unless additional polling substantiates these numbers.

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Alcon
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« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2008, 10:36:09 PM »

The cross-tabs on this poll look weird.... overly high male sample, excessively high Republican sample, too many college grads, and too many people from metro Portland....

Metro Portland is defined as being huge by SUSA.  It includes Fossil somehow.  2/3 is about right.

Otherwise, yes, weird results.  Coming up with a majority-male sample in Oregon, outside of a GOP primary, is a feat.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2008, 10:38:14 PM »

The cross-tabs on this poll look weird.... overly high male sample, excessively high Republican sample, too many college grads, and too many people from metro Portland....

Metro Portland is defined as being huge by SUSA.  It includes Fossil somehow.  2/3 is about right.

Otherwise, yes, weird results.  Coming up with a majority-male sample in Oregon, outside of a GOP primary, is a feat.

Fossil? I suppose it also includes Marion county...
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Verily
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« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2008, 10:40:44 PM »

The cross-tabs on this poll look weird.... overly high male sample, excessively high Republican sample, too many college grads, and too many people from metro Portland....

This seems like an outlier to me, unless additional polling substantiates these numbers.



Actually, the big partisan fault is low independents. The 2004 exit was 34I-34R-32D. Realistically, the Republican numbers are very unlikely to be up on 2004, so 37R is obviously wrong, but 41D is probably high, too. (This is, of course, assuming that Oregon hasn't experienced a massive increase in partisanship in the interim, but I find that... unlikely.)
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2008, 10:45:31 PM »

Yeah, but they should get punched in the balls for having a 51% male survey... thats a glaring error right there.

This also explains why Merkley is doing so piss poor, this thing oversamples republican men by quite a bit.

Maybe this will goad McCain into spending some money in the state... eh? Eh? anybody...

yeah... No.
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Alcon
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« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2008, 09:38:10 AM »

The cross-tabs on this poll look weird.... overly high male sample, excessively high Republican sample, too many college grads, and too many people from metro Portland....

This seems like an outlier to me, unless additional polling substantiates these numbers.



Actually, the big partisan fault is low independents. The 2004 exit was 34I-34R-32D. Realistically, the Republican numbers are very unlikely to be up on 2004, so 37R is obviously wrong, but 41D is probably high, too. (This is, of course, assuming that Oregon hasn't experienced a massive increase in partisanship in the interim, but I find that... unlikely.)

SUSA tends to lowball independents, for whatever reason
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elcorazon
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« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2008, 09:41:03 AM »

Why do we all assume Oregon is not competitive?  It was pretty close the last 2 times.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #9 on: August 07, 2008, 11:16:43 AM »

Why do we all assume Oregon is not competitive?  It was pretty close the last 2 times.

Are you being serious? It's not gonna be as rock solid Obama as a lot of people here think, but it's not going to be very close. It wasn't even that close in 2004.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2008, 11:26:34 AM »
« Edited: August 07, 2008, 11:41:16 AM by elcorazon »

well, I don't predict OR to be all that close, BUT in a world where some close polls are causing some to find NC to be a battleground, and the same is true in Indiana, and some believe that ND, MT and AK might be competitive, based on polling, I was wondering why we just assume that OR, which has been quite close of late, is in the bag for Obama.

2004 result was 51%-47%.  I'd call that close.  Closer than Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, Florida... if memory serves
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Erc
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« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2008, 01:12:35 PM »

I was convinced that OR would be close around this time 4 years ago, and I was proven dead wrong.  Not making the same mistake again.
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Vsanto5
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« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2008, 02:17:20 PM »

I was convinced that OR would be close around this time 4 years ago, and I was proven dead wrong.  Not making the same mistake again.

No, no no its competitive uuh trust us.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2008, 02:43:14 PM »

The cross-tabs on this poll look weird.... overly high male sample, excessively high Republican sample, too many college grads, and too many people from metro Portland....

This seems like an outlier to me, unless additional polling substantiates these numbers.


^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Toss this poll in the trash.
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ottermax
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« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2008, 04:40:18 PM »

Oregon is extremely polarized so, while it will be close, North Dakota or Alaska are more competitive than Oregon. Washington is the same way. We are some of the most polarized voters in the country, so unless Obama takes a steep dive, Oregon and Washington are going to be easy wins.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2008, 04:52:05 PM »

well, I don't predict OR to be all that close, BUT in a world where some close polls are causing some to find NC to be a battleground, and the same is true in Indiana, and some believe that ND, MT and AK might be competitive, based on polling, I was wondering why we just assume that OR, which has been quite close of late, is in the bag for Obama.

2004 result was 51%-47%.  I'd call that close.  Closer than Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, Florida... if memory serves

Yes, but Oregon is a state that looks favourable to Obama. And this poll has to be nonsense. No way is Oregon this close given the national numbers. I would expect Obama to be ahead by high single digits right now.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2008, 05:01:04 PM »

well, I don't predict OR to be all that close, BUT in a world where some close polls are causing some to find NC to be a battleground, and the same is true in Indiana, and some believe that ND, MT and AK might be competitive, based on polling, I was wondering why we just assume that OR, which has been quite close of late, is in the bag for Obama.

2004 result was 51%-47%.  I'd call that close.  Closer than Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, Florida... if memory serves

Yes, but Oregon is a state that looks favourable to Obama. And this poll has to be nonsense. No way is Oregon this close given the national numbers. I would expect Obama to be ahead by high single digits right now.
I don't doubt that you are correct, I do however, prefer more analysis than "Oregon is a state that looks favorable to Obama". Sure this poll is likely crap, but haven't we seen a couple of polls showing a close race in OR?  Given the history, can we assume it's not competitive at all just based on a sense.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2008, 05:11:50 PM »

well, I don't predict OR to be all that close, BUT in a world where some close polls are causing some to find NC to be a battleground, and the same is true in Indiana, and some believe that ND, MT and AK might be competitive, based on polling, I was wondering why we just assume that OR, which has been quite close of late, is in the bag for Obama.

2004 result was 51%-47%.  I'd call that close.  Closer than Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, Florida... if memory serves

Yes, but Oregon is a state that looks favourable to Obama. And this poll has to be nonsense. No way is Oregon this close given the national numbers. I would expect Obama to be ahead by high single digits right now.
I don't doubt that you are correct, I do however, prefer more analysis than "Oregon is a state that looks favorable to Obama". Sure this poll is likely crap, but haven't we seen a couple of polls showing a close race in OR?  Given the history, can we assume it's not competitive at all just based on a sense.

We can never know for sure. But I look at it this way. Oregon was 7% more Democratic margin-wise in 2004 than the national average. It seems to be the kind of state (western, high number of non-religious, etc) where Obama does pretty well. Given that I have trouble seeing his relative margin being worse than Kerry's. Nationally, I'd say Obama is still  marginally ahead (1% or so). So I'd guess he is AT LEAST ahead by 8% in Oregon probably more. Maybe I'm wrong somewhere, maybe it is a little bit lower, but 3% seems too little to me. But, as I said, there is no way of knowing. I could be wrong, but based on history and based on polls I don't think Oregon is this close.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #18 on: August 08, 2008, 02:05:00 AM »

I was convinced that OR would be close around this time 4 years ago, and I was proven dead wrong.  Not making the same mistake again.

OR is not in play in '08... Nader got 4% in 2000 making Oregon semi-close, but this illusion was dusted in '4.... It's been at least 24 years since Oregon has voted Republican for President...
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Vsanto5
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« Reply #19 on: August 08, 2008, 02:06:33 AM »

I don't want to jump off topic here but the convention is this month and Obama has not really given us a hint as to who is running mate is going to be...  I still think he will pick Hillary.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2008, 02:39:31 AM »

As I have said before, Obama will win by 6 +% at minimum....
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