FL: Survey USA sez McCain 50, Obama 44 (user search)
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  FL: Survey USA sez McCain 50, Obama 44 (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL: Survey USA sez McCain 50, Obama 44  (Read 2198 times)
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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Posts: 11,418
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« on: August 04, 2008, 08:48:43 PM »

Republican 43% (41%): McCain 79% (93%); Obama 18% (7%)

Democrat 38%(37%): McCain 20% (14%); Obama 75% (85%)

Independent 17% (23%): McCain 48% (41%); Obama 39% (57%)

Conservative 35% (34%): McCain 81% (86%); Obama 17% (13%)

Moderate 38% (47%): McCain 39% (43%); Obama 54% (56%)

Liberal 14% (20%): McCain 18% (18%); Obama 74% (81%)

(denotes 2004 exit poll data)

This poll does seem a little screwy in terms of party registration, male-female, education, etc...

That having been said it does appear like McCain might lead a little bit here because of his strength amongst independents and 20 point lead among Whites, and marginal lead in Central Florida.

I know the MOEs are always larger on subsegments of the crosstabs, but it doesn't seem unrealistic to see a 2-3 point McCain lead here even with the screwy demographic sampling.

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NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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Posts: 11,418
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2008, 09:02:07 PM »

The 2,00,000 spent so far in Georgia IS a head fake IMO.

I agree that GA is a total waste of money.... some of the other states are worth the $ to stretch McCain's resources out.

Obama simply has to spend money in Florida's expensive media markets (which he can afford for now) in a state where he is fairly unknown and never had a real primary contest, just to keep this state as a possible playing option come September.

PA seems at this point of lazy Summer polling to be stronger for Obama than FL is for McCain.

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NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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*****
Posts: 11,418
United States


« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2008, 12:53:17 AM »

Campaigns don't release their internal polling.  However, one can get a glimpse as to what those polls are saying by looking at the $$ spent by each campaign.  Obama has spent over 5 million in campaign ads alone in Florida since the beginning of June thru July 27th.  McCain has spent ZERO.

That should tell you all you need to know.

Maybe the RNC is running some ads.

Just pay attention to the small print next time you see them (assuming you can see it - sometimes my TV cuts a little bit of the bottom  off and you can't really read it).

Doh!!!

It's an honest mistake, I've been seeing many ads for Senator In Oregon recently and I haven't been engaged enough to look at the fine print. Granted I would have looked it more closely after I got the first reply that presented different evidence.
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