FL: Survey USA sez McCain 50, Obama 44

[Sam Spade]

Ugh, I got the numbers turned around.  Edit has been made.

Truthfully, SUSA sucks in Florida.  But so does everyone else.  I'm mainly posting the poll to make a silent point.

[NOVA Green]

The 2,00,000 spent so far in Georgia IS a head fake IMO.

I agree that GA is a total waste of money.... some of the other states are worth the $ to stretch McCain's resources out.

Obama simply has to spend money in Florida's expensive media markets (which he can afford for now) in a state where he is fairly unknown and never had a real primary contest, just to keep this state as a possible playing option come September.

PA seems at this point of lazy Summer polling to be stronger for Obama than FL is for McCain.

[??????????]

Both should be reasonably close but both candidates should hold serve.  The fact that McCain isn't spending at all in Florida indicates that, as of now at least, the campaign thinks it is going to do well there.

Then why is he running some ads here and he visited Orlando?

[Associate Justice PiT]

No way McCain does better among women than men.

Also, I don't think McCain can win by six if he's losing among Hispanics by six.  The race numbers must be off.

     The race numbers are off. If you'll notice, the sample is only 11% Black.

Even the addition of more blacks wouldn't help Baracks numbers significantly IMHO.

     It seems your right. CNN had Florida as 12% Black in 2004. Census Bureau says the state is 15.8% Black. It seems that I significantly overestimated Black turnout & population.  For some reason, I was working under the assumption that the state was 20% Black.

[Rococo4]

Uh, let's remember that McCain doesn't exactly have a lot of cash to throw around.

Anyway, the main match-up numbers seem reasonable. It's a state that leans toward McCain, we already knew that.

agreed all around

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Campaigns don't release their internal polling.  However, one can get a glimpse as to what those polls are saying by looking at the $$ spent by each campaign.  Obama has spent over 5 million in campaign ads alone in Florida since the beginning of June thru July 27th.  McCain has spent ZERO.

That should tell you all you need to know.

Maybe the RNC is running some ads.

Just pay attention to the small print next time you see them (assuming you can see it - sometimes my TV cuts a little bit of the bottom  off and you can't really read it).

[NOVA Green]

Campaigns don't release their internal polling.  However, one can get a glimpse as to what those polls are saying by looking at the $$ spent by each campaign.  Obama has spent over 5 million in campaign ads alone in Florida since the beginning of June thru July 27th.  McCain has spent ZERO.

That should tell you all you need to know.

Maybe the RNC is running some ads.

Just pay attention to the small print next time you see them (assuming you can see it - sometimes my TV cuts a little bit of the bottom  off and you can't really read it).

Doh!!!

It's an honest mistake, I've been seeing many ads for Senator In Oregon recently and I haven't been engaged enough to look at the fine print. Granted I would have looked it more closely after I got the first reply that presented different evidence.