Survey USA: McCain leads in Missouri

[Reaganfan]

McCain: 49%
Obama: 44%
Undecided: 7%

Key findings: "Among men, McCain today leads by 12. Among women, Obama leads by 3 -- a 15 point gender gap. Among voters older than McCain, McCain leads by 19 points. Among voters younger than Obama, the contest is tied. McCain holds 87% of Republican voters; Obama holds 83% of Democrats. Independents break 5:3 for McCain."

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c3bc94c1-2713-45ad-a82f-ddc6fc0bc20b

[Flying Dog]

Stupid Missouri.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Sure, I'll bite.

[Ronnie]

It's hard to imagine Obama winning Missouri.  Despite him increasing black turnout in St. Louis, he'll probably be creamed in Springfield and rural Missouri.

McCain will win by 4.

[Padfoot]

It's hard to imagine Obama winning Missouri.  Despite him increasing black turnout in St. Louis, he'll probably be creamed in Springfield and rural Missouri.

McCain will win by 4.

That sounds about right to me.

[Tender Branson]

I don´t trust SUSA MO polls anymore, since they had Clinton winning by 11. But yes, a very slight "Lean McCain" right now ...

[LanceMcSteel]

Missouri is a quasi southern state with a disgustingly high number of rural bumpkins and bible thumpers. Not even really a national bellweather, R+4 in 2004. Expect Obama to lose MO unless wins considerably in the popular vote

[Vsanto5]

It doesn't matter how he does in the popular vote ala (Jimmy Carter 1980) it matters how well he can appeal to Missouri voters.  I'm pretty sure that Florida voters don't care about what happens in Montana or Colorado as much as what happens in Florida.  Obama can win the classic swing states in November but still lose Florida and Missouri and win the popular vote by more than 3%.

For instance Clinton in 92 and 1996 won Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, but lost Indiana.  In this election Indiana is a swing state but Obama doesn't lead very much in the national trackers (popular vote)

[Democratic Hawk]

Republican 36% (36%): McCain 87% (95%); Obama 10% (5%)

Democrat 38% (35%): McCain 12% (11%); Obama 83% (89%)

Independent 20% (29%): McCain 55% (52%); Obama 34% (46%)

Conservative 37% (36%): McCain 86% (83%); Obama 10% (16%)

Moderate 35% (45%): McCain 32% (46%); Obama 61% (54%)

Liberal 12% (19%): McCain 11% (13%); Obama 85% (87%)

(denotes 2004 exit poll data)

[Democratic Hawk]

Top issue - the economy (56%): McCain 46%; Obama 49%

Dave

[NOVA Green]

This state poll seems to mirror several recent national ones that show Obama slipping amongst indies....

Obama has to find a way of moving this segment of the electorate back towards his general election....

I still want to hear more details of his economic policy myself.