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  2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  FL: Survey USA sez McCain 50, Obama 44
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Author Topic: FL: Survey USA sez McCain 50, Obama 44  (Read 1922 times)
Sam Spade
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« on: August 04, 2008, 06:42:28 pm »

New Poll: Florida President by Survey USA on 2008-08-03

Summary: D: 50%, R: 44%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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StatesRights
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« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2008, 06:46:33 pm »

SUSA? Not sure about that one.
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2008, 06:48:00 pm »

yOU GOTS da numbers mixed up
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True Democrat
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« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2008, 06:48:28 pm »

So when does Mason-Dixon start polling?
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True Democrat
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« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2008, 06:50:55 pm »

No way McCain does better among women than men.

Also, I don't think McCain can win by six if he's losing among Hispanics by six.  The race numbers must be off.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #5 on: August 04, 2008, 06:53:16 pm »

Florida is trending away from Obama. Obviously Obamas whirlwind tour of St. Pete, Plant City (Christ I feel dirty to have him going to the same vegetable stand I frequent) and Lakeland (luckily that day I didn't have to go down the road because he went down one I drive daily) didn't boost his number.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2008, 06:56:23 pm »

No way McCain does better among women than men.

Also, I don't think McCain can win by six if he's losing among Hispanics by six.  The race numbers must be off.

     The race numbers are off. If you'll notice, the sample is only 11% Black.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #7 on: August 04, 2008, 06:57:53 pm »

No way McCain does better among women than men.

Also, I don't think McCain can win by six if he's losing among Hispanics by six.  The race numbers must be off.

     The race numbers are off. If you'll notice, the sample is only 11% Black.

Even the addition of more blacks wouldn't help Baracks numbers significantly IMHO.
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agcatter
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« Reply #8 on: August 04, 2008, 06:58:16 pm »

The first indication that McCain must be up in the state is when McCain doesn't even bother to spend a penny to answer $5,000,000 worth of Obama ads over the last 7 wks.

No campaign would fail to answer an opponent's ad blitze if they wern't sitting pretty decent in their internal polling.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #9 on: August 04, 2008, 06:59:51 pm »

The first indication that McCain must be up in the state is when McCain doesn't even bother to spend a penny to answer $5,000,000 worth of Obama ads over the last 7 wks.

No campaign would fail to answer an opponent's ad blitze if they wern't sitting pretty decent in their internal polling.

If McCain isn't spending money who here is running McCain ads?
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True Democrat
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« Reply #10 on: August 04, 2008, 07:00:30 pm »

The first indication that McCain must be up in the state is when McCain doesn't even bother to spend a penny to answer $5,000,000 worth of Obama ads over the last 7 wks.

No campaign would fail to answer an opponent's ad blitze if they wern't sitting pretty decent in their internal polling.

If McCain isn't spending money who here is running McCain ads?

Might be nationally televised ads on channels like CNN and Fox News.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #11 on: August 04, 2008, 07:01:00 pm »

The first indication that McCain must be up in the state is when McCain doesn't even bother to spend a penny to answer $5,000,000 worth of Obama ads over the last 7 wks.

No campaign would fail to answer an opponent's ad blitze if they wern't sitting pretty decent in their internal polling.

If McCain isn't spending money who here is running McCain ads?

Might be nationally televised ads on channels like CNN and Fox News.

No, I've seen them on our local stations.
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agcatter
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« Reply #12 on: August 04, 2008, 07:07:57 pm »

Campaigns don't release their internal polling.  However, one can get a glimpse as to what those polls are saying by looking at the $$ spent by each campaign.  Obama has spent over 5 million in campaign ads alone in Florida since the beginning of June thru July 27th.  McCain has spent ZERO.

That should tell you all you need to know.
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Verily
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« Reply #13 on: August 04, 2008, 07:23:39 pm »
« Edited: August 04, 2008, 07:30:17 pm by Verily »

No way McCain does better among women than men.

Also, I don't think McCain can win by six if he's losing among Hispanics by six.  The race numbers must be off.

Something's definitely screwy there. McCain marginally improves on Bush's white numbers (57R-38D against 2004's 58R-42D) but loses enormous ground among Hispanics (42R-48D against 2004's 56R-44D), yet leads by more than Bush did. Blacks don't explain it, either; the 2004 result was 13R-86D while this poll has the only marginally better for McCain 16R-84D.

I'm not sure what that means.

Edit: Link to 2004 exits

Also worth noting that partisan numbers are essentially unchanged from 2004 (43R-38D against 41R-37D in 2004), which sort of runs counter to the usual paradigm. Doesn't mean it's wrong, of course.

Florida interesting fact: It's the only state where Kerry did better among those identifying as "suburban" than among those identifying as "urban" (Cuban effect, obviously).
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StatesRights
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« Reply #14 on: August 04, 2008, 07:33:46 pm »

Campaigns don't release their internal polling.  However, one can get a glimpse as to what those polls are saying by looking at the $$ spent by each campaign.  Obama has spent over 5 million in campaign ads alone in Florida since the beginning of June thru July 27th.  McCain has spent ZERO.

That should tell you all you need to know.

Maybe the RNC is running some ads.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #15 on: August 04, 2008, 07:36:53 pm »

Republican 43% (41%): McCain 79% (93%); Obama 18% (7%)

Democrat 38%(37%): McCain 20% (14%); Obama 75% (85%)

Independent 17% (23%): McCain 48% (41%); Obama 39% (57%)

Conservative 35% (34%): McCain 81% (86%); Obama 17% (13%)

Moderate 38% (47%): McCain 39% (43%); Obama 54% (56%)

Liberal 14% (20%): McCain 18% (18%); Obama 74% (81%)

(denotes 2004 exit poll data)
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agcatter
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« Reply #16 on: August 04, 2008, 07:39:07 pm »

If you want to see how competitive a state is look at the amount of money both sides dump into it.  Especially when it is such a must win for McCain.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #17 on: August 04, 2008, 07:52:30 pm »

Uh, let's remember that McCain doesn't exactly have a lot of cash to throw around.

Anyway, the main match-up numbers seem reasonable. It's a state that leans toward McCain, we already knew that.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #18 on: August 04, 2008, 08:14:27 pm »

Top issue - the economy (58%): McCain 48%; Obama 48%

The most recent Rasmussen, had Obama kicking McCain's butt on the economy

I donīt see how Obama is ahead, when McCain has a 60% favorable rating in this poll, compared with just 51% for Obama ...

Which suggests that Obama if he can increase his favorables or something happens to drive McCain's down, Florida may well be in play. But, seemingly, Obama has taken a small lead which can only be explained by the following:

Nearly half of voters in Florida (49%) say economic issues are the most important in the upcoming election. Of those voters, 63% choose Obama while just 27% choose McCain - obviously better showing for Obama here than in Ohio . In a very distant second, 19% of voters choose National Security issues as the most important in the Presidential election. Among those voters, McCain has a 79% to 18% advantage.

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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #19 on: August 04, 2008, 08:20:48 pm »

Why was this entered into the database at Obama +5% ?


I hope he continues to dump money in here as it doesn't appear that it's getting him anywhere.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #20 on: August 04, 2008, 08:48:43 pm »

Republican 43% (41%): McCain 79% (93%); Obama 18% (7%)

Democrat 38%(37%): McCain 20% (14%); Obama 75% (85%)

Independent 17% (23%): McCain 48% (41%); Obama 39% (57%)

Conservative 35% (34%): McCain 81% (86%); Obama 17% (13%)

Moderate 38% (47%): McCain 39% (43%); Obama 54% (56%)

Liberal 14% (20%): McCain 18% (18%); Obama 74% (81%)

(denotes 2004 exit poll data)

This poll does seem a little screwy in terms of party registration, male-female, education, etc...

That having been said it does appear like McCain might lead a little bit here because of his strength amongst independents and 20 point lead among Whites, and marginal lead in Central Florida.

I know the MOEs are always larger on subsegments of the crosstabs, but it doesn't seem unrealistic to see a 2-3 point McCain lead here even with the screwy demographic sampling.

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agcatter
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« Reply #21 on: August 04, 2008, 08:51:20 pm »

Florida is to McCain what Pennsylvania is to Obama.

McCain loses Florida =  McCain toast

Obama loses Pennsylvania = Obama toast

Both should be reasonably close but both candidates should hold serve.  The fact that McCain isn't spending at all in Florida indicates that, as of now at least, the campaign thinks it is going to do well there.

I suspect Obama's massive spending there is more than just a head fake.  They really do want to try and bring the state in play.  When McCain starts spending there I'll believe they are making some headway.

BTW, Obama has spent the following on media ads in June and July:

NC  --  Obama 2 million, McCain 0
Ga  --  Obama 2 million, McCain  0
Ind --  Obama 1.5 mill ,  McCain 0
Mt  --  Obama 134,000, McCain 0
Ak --   Obama  88,000,  McCain 0
ND -    Obama (I forget how much) McCain 0

In fact, the only red states that McCain has spent $$ on are Virginia and Mo.

Follow the money.  Despite all the hype we heard about Obama "expanding the playing field" and all, and it's obvious by his spending that he's been trying, McCain's spending tells me they feel the only real threat is Mo and Va.  The rest is just big talk cranked out by Obama mouthpieces like the NYT, Washington Post and Newsweek.

Follow the money.



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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #22 on: August 04, 2008, 08:53:12 pm »

So Survey USA has been garbage to the right all general election season but now that they show McCain up by 6 in Florida they are a model polling organization?
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agcatter
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« Reply #23 on: August 04, 2008, 08:53:54 pm »

The 2,00,000 spent so far in Georgia IS a head fake IMO.
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agcatter
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« Reply #24 on: August 04, 2008, 08:55:03 pm »

Who said they "were a model polling organization"?
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