Gallop has been doing polls longer than anyone, so one could say they are the official keepers of the Bounce. So they have put up a table of Bounces back to 1964.
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=12919Although its generally thought that Kerry got about a 3% Bounce this year, by the Gallop Survey, he had a -1% bounce. Kerry was the only candidate to ever get a negative bounce in their surveys.
The Gallop site always has their last poll up, the last Gallop Poll had Bush ahead by 3, 50% to 47%, so when the next Gallop poll comes out he will need to expand his lead more than 3% to get a positive bounce. The early surveys (Time, Newsweek, Rasmussen) suggest he will. My guess is Gallop will show Bush 52 Kerry 44 for a net +5 bounce.
