Why I believe Kay Hagan has a good shot at winning...

[Josh/Devilman88]

Ok, I looked back at past Senate races for NC during election years, going all the way back to 1992 the Democratic candidate for Senate in NC on avg did 3% better then the Democratic candidate for President did in NC. Also on avg thrid party candidate for Senate in NC got around 2% in NC. Ok so everyone know Obama will do better then Kerry did in 2004. So if Obama gets 46% of the vote in NC this year. Trends tell us that Hagan should get 49% of the vote right? Ok, also trends lead us to believe that the thrid party candidate(s) will get 2%(or higher). Ok so now it is
Hagan: 49%
Other: 2%
Dole: 49%

I not sure who will win, Dole may win her re-election, but this race will be very close, most likely the closest in the Nation. If the trends hold out.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Thank you, the goldmine was getting a little less Josh-filled lately

[Josh/Devilman88]

What is goldmine? You are the one thats all about trends ect. I looked at the trends and that is what the trends say.

[7,052,770]

Maybe she can pull it out, but Musgrove is definitely our best hope for knocking out a Southern incumbent.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Why I believe Kay Hagan has a good shot at winning...
1. I am a Democrat
2. If you want something bad enough, it will happen

[MarkWarner08]

Who was the last Democrat to win an NC Senate seat in a Presidential year? According to the Barone's political almanac, the answer is Sam Ervin. It's been 40 years.

[Sam Spade]

Who was the last Democrat to win an NC Senate seat in a Presidential year? According to the Barone's political almanac, the answer is Sam Ervin. It's been 40 years.

Sam Ervin was also a staunch segregationist (obviously).  Is Hagen? 

[MarkWarner08]

Who was the last Democrat to win an NC Senate seat in a Presidential year? According to the Barone's political almanac, the answer is Sam Ervin. It's been 40 years.

Sam Ervin was also a staunch segregationist (obviously).  Is Hagen? 

That would make sense since Josh22 assumes she'll outperform Obama by 3%. Maybe those McCain/Hagan voters are staunch segregationists...

[HardRCafé]

If Hagan wants to win, maybe she should endorse Dole.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Who was the last Democrat to win an NC Senate seat in a Presidential year? According to the Barone's political almanac, the answer is Sam Ervin. It's been 40 years.

Sam Ervin was also a staunch segregationist (obviously).  Is Hagen? 

That would make sense since Josh22 assumes she'll outperform Obama by 3%. Maybe those McCain/Hagan voters are staunch segregationists...

Oh what I read of her views Hagan is about the same as Easley, maybe a little more to the right. Anyways Democratic Senate candidates alway over perfrom the Democratic President candidate(or at least going back to 1992) Like for example, the Mountains, Bowles won some counties in the west in 2004 and 2000.

[MarkWarner08]

Who was the last Democrat to win an NC Senate seat in a Presidential year? According to the Barone's political almanac, the answer is Sam Ervin. It's been 40 years.

Sam Ervin was also a staunch segregationist (obviously).  Is Hagen? 

That would make sense since Josh22 assumes she'll outperform Obama by 3%. Maybe those McCain/Hagan voters are staunch segregationists...

Oh what I read of her views Hagan is about the same as Easley, maybe a little more to the right. Anyways Democratic Senate candidates alway over perfrom the Democratic President candidate(or at least going back to 1992) Like for example, the Mountains, Bowles won some counties in the west in 2004 and 2000.

It's easy to do better than the POTUS nominee if that candidate is winning 43%. My guess is that Hagan's ceiling is 47%.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Who was the last Democrat to win an NC Senate seat in a Presidential year? According to the Barone's political almanac, the answer is Sam Ervin. It's been 40 years.

Sam Ervin was also a staunch segregationist (obviously).  Is Hagen? 

That would make sense since Josh22 assumes she'll outperform Obama by 3%. Maybe those McCain/Hagan voters are staunch segregationists...

Oh what I read of her views Hagan is about the same as Easley, maybe a little more to the right. Anyways Democratic Senate candidates alway over perfrom the Democratic President candidate(or at least going back to 1992) Like for example, the Mountains, Bowles won some counties in the west in 2004 and 2000.

It's easy to do better than the POTUS nominee if that candidate is winning 43%. My guess is that Hagan's ceiling is 47%.

That is what Bowles got in 2004, I believe she will do better then that, I believe her ceiling is 51%. It will end up being a 49-49 races.

[Dan the Roman]

To be fair, if I had to pick one of the longer shot races(NC, KY, ME,) that would end up going  to the Democrats it would be Hagan's since I actually could imagine her winning a senate race in North Carolina. I share much of the skepticism expressed on the thread about how likely this is against Liddy Dole in a Presidential year, but I don't think anything Josh said deserves the mocking he's received

There is nothing any more ridiculously about talking of the possibility of Hagan winning, and its a whole lot more likely than either Ann Northup or Mike Sodrel winning their old seats back this year. Its not as if Josh suggested that Dick Zimmer or Larry LarRoco were going to win.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

To be fair, if I had to pick one of the longer shot races(NC, KY, ME,) that would end up going  to the Democrats it would be Hagan's since I actually could imagine her winning a senate race in North Carolina. I share much of the skepticism expressed on the thread about how likely this is against Liddy Dole in a Presidential year, but I don't think anything Josh said deserves the mocking he's received

There is nothing any more ridiculously about talking of the possibility of Hagan winning, and its a whole lot more likely than either Ann Northup or Mike Sodrel winning their old seats back this year. Its not as if Josh suggested that Dick Zimmer or Larry LarRoco were going to win.

I'd say that Mitch McConnell losing is the most likely for NC, KY, and ME.  The problem with all three is that it won't be hard at all for Democrats to come close in the three, but it'll be near impossible to get to the plurality to actually knock any of them out.

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Wait, I thought the gay guy lost the primary?

[Josh/Devilman88]

To be fair, if I had to pick one of the longer shot races(NC, KY, ME,) that would end up going  to the Democrats it would be Hagan's since I actually could imagine her winning a senate race in North Carolina. I share much of the skepticism expressed on the thread about how likely this is against Liddy Dole in a Presidential year, but I don't think anything Josh said deserves the mocking he's received

There is nothing any more ridiculously about talking of the possibility of Hagan winning, and its a whole lot more likely than either Ann Northup or Mike Sodrel winning their old seats back this year. Its not as if Josh suggested that Dick Zimmer or Larry LarRoco were going to win.

I'd say that Mitch McConnell losing is the most likely for NC, KY, and ME.  The problem with all three is that it won't be hard at all for Democrats to come close in the three, but it'll be near impossible to get to the plurality to actually knock any of them out.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wait, I thought the gay guy lost the primary?

Haha, He did, but Dole will be wearing them on Nov 5th.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

To be fair, if I had to pick one of the longer shot races(NC, KY, ME,) that would end up going  to the Democrats it would be Hagan's since I actually could imagine her winning a senate race in North Carolina. I share much of the skepticism expressed on the thread about how likely this is against Liddy Dole in a Presidential year, but I don't think anything Josh said deserves the mocking he's received

There is nothing any more ridiculously about talking of the possibility of Hagan winning, and its a whole lot more likely than either Ann Northup or Mike Sodrel winning their old seats back this year. Its not as if Josh suggested that Dick Zimmer or Larry LarRoco were going to win.

I'd say that Mitch McConnell losing is the most likely for NC, KY, and ME.  The problem with all three is that it won't be hard at all for Democrats to come close in the three, but it'll be near impossible to get to the plurality to actually knock any of them out.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wait, I thought the gay guy lost the primary?

Haha, He did, but Dole will be wearing them on Nov 5th.

Given that Hagen is getting outraised by 4 to 1, maybe she should concentrate on spending her money on campaign ads rather than buying gifts for her opponent.

[Josh/Devilman88]

To be fair, if I had to pick one of the longer shot races(NC, KY, ME,) that would end up going  to the Democrats it would be Hagan's since I actually could imagine her winning a senate race in North Carolina. I share much of the skepticism expressed on the thread about how likely this is against Liddy Dole in a Presidential year, but I don't think anything Josh said deserves the mocking he's received

There is nothing any more ridiculously about talking of the possibility of Hagan winning, and its a whole lot more likely than either Ann Northup or Mike Sodrel winning their old seats back this year. Its not as if Josh suggested that Dick Zimmer or Larry LarRoco were going to win.

I'd say that Mitch McConnell losing is the most likely for NC, KY, and ME.  The problem with all three is that it won't be hard at all for Democrats to come close in the three, but it'll be near impossible to get to the plurality to actually knock any of them out.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wait, I thought the gay guy lost the primary?

Haha, He did, but Dole will be wearing them on Nov 5th.

Given that Hagen is getting outraised by 4 to 1, maybe she should concentrate on spending her money on campaign ads rather than buying gifts for her opponent.

She don't need to buy them Dole already has them on.

[Joe Republic]

She don't need to buy then Dole already has then on.

Would you like to try that again?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

She don't need to buy then Dole already has then on.

Would you like to try that again?

I would recommend quitting while he's behind.

[Josh/Devilman88]

She don't need to buy then Dole already has them on.

Would you like to try that again?

Yea, I notice that after I post it, but I had to bring back a drug screen.

[Josh/Devilman88]

She don't need to buy then Dole already has then on.

Would you like to try that again?

I would recommend quitting while he's behind.

We can live with out your jerkish comments.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Yea, I notice that after I post it, but I had to bring back a drug screen.

Wouldn't happen to have been your own drug screen, would it?

[Josh/Devilman88]

Yea, I notice that after I post it, but I had to bring back a drug screen.

Wouldn't happen to have been your own drug screen, would it?

I'm not even going to start with you, because you are voting for McCain and anyone who is voting for him doesn't have much of a brain to think with.

[Dan the Roman]

To be fair, if I had to pick one of the longer shot races(NC, KY, ME,) that would end up going  to the Democrats it would be Hagan's since I actually could imagine her winning a senate race in North Carolina. I share much of the skepticism expressed on the thread about how likely this is against Liddy Dole in a Presidential year, but I don't think anything Josh said deserves the mocking he's received

There is nothing any more ridiculously about talking of the possibility of Hagan winning, and its a whole lot more likely than either Ann Northup or Mike Sodrel winning their old seats back this year. Its not as if Josh suggested that Dick Zimmer or Larry LarRoco were going to win.

I'd say that Mitch McConnell losing is the most likely for NC, KY, and ME.  The problem with all three is that it won't be hard at all for Democrats to come close in the three, but it'll be near impossible to get to the plurality to actually knock any of them out.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wait, I thought the gay guy lost the primary?

Haha, He did, but Dole will be wearing them on Nov 5th.

Given that Hagen is getting outraised by 4 to 1, maybe she should concentrate on spending her money on campaign ads rather than buying gifts for her opponent.

I thought Hagan nearly outraised Dole last quarter? Or is this COH?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

To be fair, if I had to pick one of the longer shot races(NC, KY, ME,) that would end up going  to the Democrats it would be Hagan's since I actually could imagine her winning a senate race in North Carolina. I share much of the skepticism expressed on the thread about how likely this is against Liddy Dole in a Presidential year, but I don't think anything Josh said deserves the mocking he's received

There is nothing any more ridiculously about talking of the possibility of Hagan winning, and its a whole lot more likely than either Ann Northup or Mike Sodrel winning their old seats back this year. Its not as if Josh suggested that Dick Zimmer or Larry LarRoco were going to win.

I'd say that Mitch McConnell losing is the most likely for NC, KY, and ME.  The problem with all three is that it won't be hard at all for Democrats to come close in the three, but it'll be near impossible to get to the plurality to actually knock any of them out.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wait, I thought the gay guy lost the primary?

Haha, He did, but Dole will be wearing them on Nov 5th.

Given that Hagen is getting outraised by 4 to 1, maybe she should concentrate on spending her money on campaign ads rather than buying gifts for her opponent.

I thought Hagan nearly outraised Dole last quarter? Or is this COH?

Total.  Dole raised ~$11m to Hagan's $3m.  Dole up a little more than 2 to 1 in CoH.