FL-Rasmussen: Obama up 2

[Tender Branson]

Florida Survey of 500 Likely Voters - Conducted July 22, 2008 - By Rasmussen Reports:

With Leaners:

Obama - 49%
McCain - 47%

Others - 2%
Undecided - 2%

Link

[elcorazon]

this poll is so wrong.  we all know mccain leads florida, which is trending to the right and 2000 was the aberration.  I guess Rasmussen + summer polling leads to these types of foolhardy results.

[Tender Branson]

I don´t see how Obama is ahead, when McCain has a 60% favorable rating in this poll, compared with just 51% for Obama ...

[Ronnie]

This is a summer poll, though.  I really don't think the GOP really has to worry about Fla.

[JWHart]

There's no way both this poll and the poll showing McCain +10 in Ohio can be true in the same week. Of course, I know which one I'd like to believe, but YMMV.

[Wiz in Wis]

This is unexpected... however, we should all remind ourselves that most summer polls are off by a bit. It is interesting to note, however, that the averages in both Florida and Ohio are very close. Considering their role as traditional swing states... why is anyone really that surprised?

[tarheel-leftist85]

let's hear it for the echo chamber!  obviously, we don't want Obama campaigning in Florida--he might have to run to the left of Milton Friedman on economic issues.

0.17 * 95 = 16.15 [African American vote]
0.18 * 50 = 09.00 [Hispanic/Latin Am. & Other vote]
0.65 * 38 = 24.70 [Caucasian vote; BHO getting 36% caucasians w/ 11% undecided in PPP poll]
___________________________________________
                   49.85% Obama (i.e., enough to carry the state provided 3rd parties)

But that's just number crunching, not waxing poetic about carrying Wyoming before any Southern state b/c, yes, they're apparently the cause of this country's problems.

[Lief 🗽]

what

[TheresNoMoney]

Unexpected, probably off.

[Democratic Hawk]

I don´t see how Obama is ahead, when McCain has a 60% favorable rating in this poll, compared with just 51% for Obama ...

Which suggests that Obama if he can increase his favorables or something happens to drive McCain's down, Florida may well be in play. But, seemingly, Obama has taken a small lead which can only be explained by the following:

Nearly half of voters in Florida (49%) say economic issues are the most important in the upcoming election. Of those voters, 63% choose Obama while just 27% choose McCain - obviously better showing for Obama here than in Ohio . In a very distant second, 19% of voters choose National Security issues as the most important in the Presidential election. Among those voters, McCain has a 79% to 18% advantage.

Dave

[Torie]

let's hear it for the echo chamber!  obviously, we don't want Obama campaigning in Florida--he might have to run to the left of Milton Friedman on economic issues.

0.17 * 95 = 16.15 [African American vote]
0.18 * 50 = 09.00 [Hispanic/Latin Am. & Other vote]
0.65 * 38 = 24.70 [Caucasian vote; BHO getting 36% caucasians w/ 11% undecided in PPP poll]
___________________________________________
                   49.85% Obama (i.e., enough to carry the state provided 3rd parties)

But that's just number crunching, not waxing poetic about carrying Wyoming before any Southern state b/c, yes, they're apparently the cause of this country's problems.

Why is the African American vote at 17%, when it was 12% in 2004 per the exit polls in Florida?

[Vsanto5]

And the unafflilated vote is going for Obama. Numbers don't lie people

[Democratic Hawk]

And the unafflilated vote is going for Obama. Numbers don't lie people

That's always reassuring

[Wiz in Wis]

And the unafflilated vote is going for Obama. Numbers don't lie people

That's always reassuring

Whatever, 8 is totally full of sh*t... and I'm pretty sure that 245 cheated its wife.

[tarheel-leftist85]

let's hear it for the echo chamber!  obviously, we don't want Obama campaigning in Florida--he might have to run to the left of Milton Friedman on economic issues.

0.17 * 95 = 16.15 [African American vote]
0.18 * 50 = 09.00 [Hispanic/Latin Am. & Other vote]
0.65 * 38 = 24.70 [Caucasian vote; BHO getting 36% caucasians w/ 11% undecided in PPP poll]
___________________________________________
                   49.85% Obama (i.e., enough to carry the state provided 3rd parties)

But that's just number crunching, not waxing poetic about carrying Wyoming before any Southern state b/c, yes, they're apparently the cause of this country's problems.

Why is the African American vote at 17%, when it was 12% in 2004 per the exit polls in Florida?

FL is b/w 16 or 17% African-American.  I would expect African-American turnout to at least be commensurate w/ its share of of the population.  I also suspect that Hispanic/Latin American turnout will be a hair higher (though maybe not, if African-American turnout is especially high) and probably a little bit more Democratic than my estimate (maybe 50-55%).  The confluence of these demographics, I suspect, gives Obama a floor of 49% (admittedly, his ceiling probably isn't higher than 52 or 53%). 

It all depends on the campaign he runs:  progressive-leftist-populist or feeble centrist.  I will also venture a guess that if Obama does not carry FL, he won't win the EC (expecting either a narrow loss or a blowout victory, nothing in b/w).

[Flying Dog]

Yes, McCain is up by 10 in Ohio and Obama is up in Florida. Oh, how I love summer

[Sam Spade]

Florida is 16% AA.  Now, one important improvement on the 12% number that may occur this year because is that former felons are now allowed to vote.  And the margins will probably increase slightly.

However, with the exception of the rural black areas of Florida, I really don't think that Democratic turnout operations can do better in pulling the blacks out than they did in 2000 and 2004, mainly because most of them reside in the Gold Coast, and turnout ops in 2000 and 2004 was as good there as it's going to get.  Same problem is going to show up in OH and PA, btw.

[Torie]

Florida is 15.8% AA as of 2006. I suspect the VAP is more like 14%.

[MarkWarner08]

Now, one important improvement on the 12% number that may occur this year because is that former felons are now allowed to vote.  And the margins will probably increase slightly.

Kudos to Charlie Crist for liberalizing the state's voting rules. It would be wonderfully ironic if a McCain/Crist ticket lost because of an abnormally high black turnout, swelled by the newly empowered criminal voting bloc.

[Torie]

Now, one important improvement on the 12% number that may occur this year because is that former felons are now allowed to vote.  And the margins will probably increase slightly.

Kudos to Charlie Crist for liberalizing the state's voting rules. It would be wonderfully ironic if a McCain/Crist ticket lost because of an abnormally high black turnout, swelled by the newly empowered criminal voting bloc.

Crist should get his "gay" ass horse whipped for doing that.  I'll supply the whip.

[Flying Dog]

Now, one important improvement on the 12% number that may occur this year because is that former felons are now allowed to vote.  And the margins will probably increase slightly.

Kudos to Charlie Crist for liberalizing the state's voting rules. It would be wonderfully ironic if a McCain/Crist ticket lost because of an abnormally high black turnout, swelled by the newly empowered criminal voting bloc.

Crist should get his "gay" ass horse whipped for doing that.  I'll supply the whip.

You'd like that, wouldn't you?

For the record, I support Crists gay ass in this instance.

[Sam Spade]

Now, one important improvement on the 12% number that may occur this year because is that former felons are now allowed to vote.  And the margins will probably increase slightly.

Kudos to Charlie Crist for liberalizing the state's voting rules. It would be wonderfully ironic if a McCain/Crist ticket lost because of an abnormally high black turnout, swelled by the newly empowered criminal voting bloc.

All the blacks have been gotten to vote out of the Gold Coast that actually will, I suspect.  But I said that before.

[Brittain33]

this poll is so wrong.  we all know mccain leads florida, which is trending to the right and 2000 was the aberration.  I guess Rasmussen + summer polling leads to these types of foolhardy results.

Will you shut your ing mouth?

Trolls need to be entertaining. Try harder.

[JohnCA246]

I don't think FL is as safe as everyone is making it out to be.  It is an older state, but so is Ohio.  FL is very cosmopolitan which goes well with Obama.  Id say McCain is winning there, but I dont see how this automatically McCain territory.  Why is FL so much more unrealistic than VA?

[RJ]

Why are so many people saying FL is in McCain's back pocket? I'll admit it leans Republican right now, but it's still within Obama's reach and he shouldn't just give up here.

There are 2 things I can think of that may be swaying things. 1 may be doing so right now. That would be offshore drilling. People generally don't like their own state being drilled, just ones that are all the way on the other coast. The other thing is there are quite a few Hispanics in Florida. I think this has been underestimated and will continue to make Florida closer than it appears.

For those who still think Florida is a lost cause for the Democrats, the state hasn't landslided in a Presidential election since 1988.