AK: Research 2000: McCain leads by 10 in 2 way Alaska race

[Wiz in Wis]

New Poll: Alaska President by Research 2000 on 2008-07-17

Summary: D: 41%, R: 51%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Wiz in Wis]

This is one state where I think McCain's lead is heavily overstated if no independents are allowed or included

[Tender Branson]

This is one state where I think McCain's lead is heavily overstated if no independents are allowed or included

McCain leads by 5 among Independents.

[Democratic Hawk]

[Person Man]

Probably McCain's flip-flop on oil exploration. The needs of the Alaskans are pretty much opposed to the needs of basically anyone else.

[Wiz in Wis]

This is one state where I think McCain's lead is heavily overstated if no independents are allowed or included

McCain leads by 5 among Independents.

Independent Candidates

[Rococo4]

looks about right to me.....tough to envision Obama winning here.

[agcatter]

Looks like crap to me.  The chosen one leads everywhere.

[Ronnie]

You actually believed that Obama can win here?

[Lief 🗽]

A little disappointing. I'd like to see what the numbers are after he visits.

[phk]

This looks much better than +5

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Once Obama visits, I expect he'll win the state easily.

[Democratic Hawk]

You actually believed that Obama can win here?

Not really but I'd rather see Obama down by 5 in AK than by 10. Still Democrats may not come away totally empty handed in AK this fall

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Probably McCain's flip-flop on oil exploration. The needs of the Alaskans are pretty much opposed to the needs of basically anyone else.

Wait until McCain flips on ANWR the moment a poll shows a clear majority of Americans favor it, he'll have AK well and truly locked-in. He has form for doing that of late

Dave

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

This begs the question. What would the numbers for Alaska be if the GOP was running Huckabee and the democrats picked someone like Dean/some other more fiscally conservative dem?

[Padfoot]

It seems silly to poll this state without providing at least an "other" category when on average the combined 3rd party/independent has been 5 points higher than the national 3rd party/independent vote share for the past 40 years.  Ever since 1972 Alaska has exceeded the national average for 3rd party/independent candidate vote share by a significant amount.

Taking another look at Alaska's voting history reveals that no Democrat has taken over 40% of the vote there since 1968 and Nixon only won by only 2.64% that year.  Now looking at this year's polling numbers you have Obama consistently polling at 41% or higher.  Given this, it seems highly probable this will be one of the closest presidential elections in Alaska's history so the importance of 3rd party/independent influence will be amplified.

I am still fairly confident that McCain will win here in the end but given the circumstances of this election and Alaska's independent voting streak it seems irresponsible for pollsters not to ask Alaskans if they'll be choosing someone besides Obama or McCain in November.