NC: Survey USA: McCain leads Obama by 5

[Vsanto5]

NC is not a swing state. Obama should not waste money there

Actually North Carolina breaks down 45% Democratic, 34% Republican, and a good chunk of 21% Independent voters. I think this state is a true swing state. Besides, calling Clinton the "first black president", he almost won the state twice.

[Josh/Devilman88]

This polled made me laugh. First blacks make up 21% of the RVs so you show at least have them making up 20% of the voters. Also this polls said that the Greensboro and Raleigh area are tied. That is funny there... I'll wait until Rasy comes out with a poll.

[Rowan]

Here's a surprise, the exit poll in 2004 was wrong.

Blacks did NOT make up 26% of the electorate.

They only made up 18.5% according to the NC Board of Elections.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Here's a surprise, the exit poll in 2004 was wrong.

Blacks did NOT make up 26% of the electorate.

They only made up 18.5% according to the NC Board of Elections.

Of course they were, but with Obama bring out black voters it will be close to 20% this year.

[agcatter]

For the record, a stroll down memory lane.

Mason-Dixon - July 12, 2004

Bush   48
Kerry   45


Rasmussen July 30, 2004

Bush   50
Kerry   45

We're in the summer people.  Relax.  NC = NJ, fool's gold. 

It is an expensive state and it doesn't look like Obama is going to have the massive advantage over McCain in $$ that Newsweek and the NYT were orgasmic about a month ago.  I can see dumping money into cheaper markets like Montana and ND but the millions it would take for NC to be border line competitive (and I'm not convinced it would be) just seems silly.  If Obama truly has anything close to a 50 - 50 chance in NC he's already won.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I believe alot of the polls are under polling blacks and younger voters. I believe right now McCain is ahead of Obama by 1 or 2 points not 5%.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Seems about right; maybe 1-2 points more for McCain.

[Verily]

For the record, a stroll down memory lane.

Mason-Dixon - July 12, 2004

Bush   48
Kerry   45

Less than a week after Kerry announced that Edwards would be his running mate. Which might, just might, have resonated pretty strongly in NC.

[agcatter]

doubt it - there was a reason Edwards didn't run for reelection. 

If is resonated, it sure didn't stick around very long because he didn't do anything for Kerry in NC in any of the September or October polls.

[Verily]

doubt it - there was a reason Edwards didn't run for reelection. 

If is resonated, it sure didn't stick around very long because he didn't do anything for Kerry in NC in any of the September or October polls.

Oh, come on. You don't think the VP pick bounce is larger in that person's home state than elsewhere? Seriously?

[Josh/Devilman88]

doubt it - there was a reason Edwards didn't run for reelection. 

If is resonated, it sure didn't stick around very long because he didn't do anything for Kerry in NC in any of the September or October polls.

Oh, come on. You don't think the VP pick bounce is larger in that person's home state than elsewhere? Seriously?

Note that the 2 polls about a week after that MD poll was taking have Bush up by avg of 6%, so yea I believe it was VP bonce.