Obama will probably take most of the Gore counties. The Kerry shutout was just a fluke. McCain is going to get, at most, 60% in Oklahoma. Currently, McCain is leading 52-38 which is low for Mac in my opinion, but about right for Obama.
Still, even though Obama will win roughly 10 counties give or take, it will still be a Bush-Gore sized blowout.
I like your prognosis Jeff. Besides, the macro-environment isn't as favorable for McCain in 2008 as it was for Bush in 2004. That said, I notice your economy was one of the better ones in terms of growth (4.0%) in 2007
In 2004, only 16% of Oklahoman's cited the economy as their most important issue (29% cited moral values; 20% terrorism) and they broke for Kerry 78/22
Dave
That is one thing that Oklahoma can say, is that our economy hasn't been hit near as hard as that of other states. In fact, our economy is rapidly growing and will only get bigger thanks to the new NBA team in Oklahoma City.
BRTD is correct (wow, did I say that??) in that Oklahoma does have some pure yellow dogs. Sure they are outnumbered by the Blue Dogs, but they are numerous and they are more prominent in the eastern half of the state. Remember, in Oklahoma, a deep red state, there are more registered Democrats than registered Republicans. Its just that about 60% of the Democrats are blue dogs or DLCers and don't hesitate to vote for a Republican if they put up a better candidate than their own party (See: 2004 Bush v. Kerry and Coburn v. Carson). In other words, they vote the person and not the party.
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