unlike kerry, obama will actually win at least one county in ok

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Agree, although he will only win a couple.

Oklahoma in 2004 was just horrible for the Democrats. Not only did Kerry lose every county, which is terrible in its own right, but Brad Carson lost to an extremist even though he was the most conservative candidates we've run in decades.

Hopefully we'll win Cleveland County since it has a large University.

He won't. He'll win a few, but they'll just be the few that Gore won.

This isn't much of a prediction though, since Kerry's shutout was a fluke, as pointed out, even Gore won a bunch.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What people often forget is that Obama isn't a much worse candidate than Kerry in most of the states they expect him to underperform badly. Even in places like Oklahoma you have a number of liberals or total yellow dogs. A negro isn't really THAT much worse than someone like Kerry.

I mean take Mississippi otherwise. Can Obama underperform Kerry among whites? I'm pretty sure the 14% of whites going for Kerry are probably the few Harrys in the state (or the type of voter who may be rather right wing but wouldn't vote for a Republican if you pointed a gun to their and would vote for "Osama bin Laden (D)", like most of Elliot County, Kentucky.)

Anyway I think Al nailed this in his classic vague way. I expect Obama to fall somewhere between Gore and Kerry, and thus take a handful of counties like Gore did.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

don't hesitate to vote for a Republican if they put up a better candidate than their own party (See: 2004 Bush v. Kerry and Coburn v. Carson).  In other words, they vote the person and not the party.

In what alternate universe is Tom Coburn a better candidate than anyone for any public office?

Or Bush for that matter.