NJ: Fairleigh Dickinson University: Obama leads McCain by 16

[DownWithTheLeft]

Well, Josh, hard to be wrong when you predict every possible outcome I guess

[Josh/Devilman88]

Well, Josh, hard to be wrong when you predict every possible outcome I guess

Look at your Prediction map and look at my prediction map... who's is closer to the real out come?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

at least DWTL made his own map, while you pulled your's from 538.com. Chances are neither of you are right, so comparing predictions is pretty useless. I'm pretty sure if NC had an 80% chance of flipping, Obama should be leading consistently in the polls there, but I dont even know why I'm arguing this. You'll believe NC will be a Dem state up until it's called for McCain in November.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Well, Josh, hard to be wrong when you predict every possible outcome I guess

Look at your Prediction map and look at my prediction map... who's is closer to the real out come?

I don't know, what is this "real one" you refer to?  Last time I checked the the VP candidates hadn't even been chosen and the election is still over 4 months away

[DownWithTheLeft]

BTW Josh, we have 4 states different, all considered swing states (CO, NH, PA, MI)

[Josh/Devilman88]

BTW Josh, we have 4 states different, all considered swing states (CO, NH, PA, MI)

You have all of the Mid-west, besides IL as toss-up. You have WA as a toss-up and you have CA as lean Obama. You have NC strong McCain and VA and MO as lean McCain... I guess you don't look at polls.

[Flying Dog]

Are you two done with your bitch-fest yet?

[DownWithTheLeft]

BTW Josh, we have 4 states different, all considered swing states (CO, NH, PA, MI)

You have all of the Mid-west, besides IL as toss-up. You have WA as a toss-up and you have CA as lean Obama. You have NC strong McCain and VA and MO as lean McCain... I guess you don't look at polls.

Damn you owned me there!!!  I'm sorry I base my thoughts on logic rather than summer uni polls.  And if you read my prediction, I said Washington was an oversight.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Are you two done with your bitch-fest yet?

Nah, watching Josh say ridiculous things is too funny

[Josh/Devilman88]

BTW Josh, we have 4 states different, all considered swing states (CO, NH, PA, MI)

You have all of the Mid-west, besides IL as toss-up. You have WA as a toss-up and you have CA as lean Obama. You have NC strong McCain and VA and MO as lean McCain... I guess you don't look at polls.

Damn you owned me there!!!  I'm sorry I base my thoughts on logic rather than summer uni polls.  And if you read my prediction, I said Washington was an oversight.

No you base it off of hackish dreams. My map is based on on trends. But we will see in Nov when McCain gets crushed by Obama.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

LOL. I live this! Josh is really digging himself into a hole now. While I think Obama is favored, no one is getting "crushed" in this election. Not when both gave approvals of 55%. The arrogance of the Obama supporters is getting a little extreme now. Its stupid than anyone on any side would go around saying their candidate will crush the other. I think Josh has trended into the area of extreme Obama hack, which is 180 degrees from where he was 4 years ago: an extreme Bush hack. In fact, wasn't Josh the quickest to assure the forum that NC was solid Bush when summer polls showed it a close race?

[DownWithTheLeft]

BTW Josh, we have 4 states different, all considered swing states (CO, NH, PA, MI)

You have all of the Mid-west, besides IL as toss-up. You have WA as a toss-up and you have CA as lean Obama. You have NC strong McCain and VA and MO as lean McCain... I guess you don't look at polls.

Damn you owned me there!!!  I'm sorry I base my thoughts on logic rather than summer uni polls.  And if you read my prediction, I said Washington was an oversight.

No you base it off of hackish dreams. My map is based on on trends. But we will see in Nov when McCain gets crushed by Obama.

Four states Josh, four states considered by everyone to be swing states

[classical liberal]

Ignoring uni polls and using consistently polled similar states to get a sense of the trends in NJ, I get that Obama is up by 10.4%, compared to a NPV lead of of 3.7%.

Why do we even bother with uni polls?

[Sensei]

This is just too funny! Obama is hardly as good a fit for New Jersey and Al Gore was, so the logic that NJ is Dem +16 this cycle in a 50/50 race is laughable.

Also, Josh, I can only hope your NC general prediction is as accurate as your primary one, which was not right. Saying ludicrous things like that will hurt any credibility you have left.

Which would leave pretty much Rasmussen, Strategic Vision (which is sort of a partisan poll), SUSA, and Mason-Dixon.  At least 3 of those will show a McCain lead at some point

\
If you really believe that you are stupid, sorry to say but you are.

LOL this coming from Mr. NC is Dem I'm 80% sure!!!
At least NJ has a history of polling like this

McCain only had the lead in NJ during March is because of the split in the Democratic party over Obama and Clinton. In NC blacks will make up 23% of the voters, Obama winning them around 94%, and getting 34% of the white vote.. he will win by 1 or 2 percent.

So, because I think McCain will lead some polls in NJ I am stupid, than under your logic what does that make someone who believes w/80% certainy that Obama will win a state that 99% of the forum thinks he will lose?

99% of the forum said Obama would win NC by less then 10% in the primary. I said he would win around 15% or so.. I was right about that.

North Carolina

Obama: 52%
Clinton: 46%
Other: 2%


Indiana

Clinton: 55%
Obama: 43%
Other: 2%

I also maybe another prediction after that saying it would be much higher.

That's not even a comprehensible sentence.
I don't throw the word "idiot" around a lot, but when the shoe fits...

[Smash255]

Even in the 9/11 bump of 04 (which is gone now) the state was still 9% more Dem than the national average.  Considering Obama is up 6% or so right now nationally, this result is not a surprise and not trash.  Pretty close to where you would expect NJ to be considering the national numbers

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama wins 55-44

[Verily]

Okay. University polls are supposed to be bad, and FDU is nothing exceptional. They did do very well in the 2006 Senate election (final poll D+10, result D+9), which would normally make me give them some credence... but it's FDU. It's nearby, and the locals call it "Fairly Ridiculous" because it's an expensive commuter college for the rich and stupid. So take from it what you will. D+16 is not unreasonable, at least.