MS: Rasmussen: McCain up by 6%

[BamaObama]

It's not at all inconceivable for Obama to net 44% in the 'Sip.  Why?  Because even though MS blacks have always voted for the Democrat, they've had embarrassingly low turnout levels.  If he can increase their turnout totals, it will certainly be a help to him here.

I'm looking forward to see what Obama can do here, though.  Even though nobody is actually thinking he can win it, I'd like to see him stump in Jackson to motivate black voters... thus, helping Musgrove.  He's got the money to make a late August appearance.

[minionofmidas]

Time to bump this thread.

[agcatter]

Believe me, Muscrove doesn't want Obama anywhere near Mississippi.  He'll need at least one third of the white vote to eek out a win.  He doesn't want to be tied to Obama.

[minionofmidas]

Believe me, Muscrove doesn't want Obama anywhere near Mississippi.  He'll need at least one third of the white vote to eek out a win.  He doesn't want to be tied to Obama.

At least not too closely. (He can't distance himself too far either... he needs the Black vote too.)

[Brittain33]

He'll need at least one third of the white vote to eek out a win.

Can you show us the math on that? Thanks.

[minionofmidas]

He'll need at least one third of the white vote to eek out a win.

Can you show us the math on that? Thanks.

If (nonwhite Musgrove voters minus nonwhite Wicker voters)=30 percent of major-party vote cast, a third of the white major-party vote would bring Musgrove to 53%.
What was the Black share of the vote in 2004, 34? 35? Subtract a handful of black Republicans and his figures are off but not all that far off.

[Brittain33]

He'll need at least one third of the white vote to eek out a win.

Can you show us the math on that? Thanks.

If (nonwhite Musgrove voters minus nonwhite Wicker voters)=30 percent of major-party vote cast, a third of the white major-party vote would bring Musgrove to 53%.
What was the Black share of the vote in 2004, 34? 35? Subtract a handful of black Republicans and his figures are off but not all that far off.

A 53% Musgrove win would be huge! I'm hoping for 50% + 1... and those 3 percentage points translate into something like 5 percentage points among the white population. A large number in a state as polarized and conservative as Mississippi.

See, I would start from the 2004 numbers and increase them marginally because of the enthusiasm gap between African-Americans on one side and white Republicans on the other. Say it takes you to 36%, which is a conservative guess. That leaves 14% of the vote to be made up from about 64% of the population... something like 22% of the white vote. Doable. And very, very different from "one-third."

Agcatter has made a lot of predictions, including that Obama has an EV ceiling of 278 votes, and he should be able to show us the math that underlies his talk so we know he isn't just pulling numbers out of his ass. Since he's not doing that, right?

[Sam Spade]

I always thought it would have to be more like 25%, most likely, 20% at least. 33% sounds high.  Like I said before, Musgrove's problem geographically in MS is that most of the whites who care interested in voting Democratic live in Wicker's CD.

[minionofmidas]

I always thought it would have to be more like 25%, most likely, 20% at least. 33% sounds high.  Like I said before, Musgrove's problem geographically in MS is that most of the whites who care interested in voting Democratic live in Wicker's CD.

...or more to the point, the eastern half of it. Where Wicker is from. Musgrove himself is from the CD.

Although there are some such people in Taylor's district as well... and that's just talking at the presidential level.

[Josh/Devilman88]

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Because it's just outrageous. Obama will get 46-47% in Mississippi? He could very well help Musgrove, but blacks already vote in a very high percentage and already 90% for the Democrats.

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He could improve on Kerry's 39%, but an 8% improvement? Get real. He's not getting 46-47% in Mississippi, and he won't improve on Kerry's white vote numbers. To suggest that is far fetched.

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I'm so happy that you can see what's going to happen in November, Mr. "80% sure Obama will win NC." I am not bitter; I am just tired of the Obama fanboys suggesting these crazy notions. One guy says something stupid and it seems like the rest try to out do him.

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So what? McCain was leading in Massachusetts and New Jersey. Is it fair that we Republicans can start talking about how McCain is getting 45% in Massachusetts? Most of you won't even cede that he could get that in New Jersey.

There is that bitterness I was talking about.. McCain will get crushed and you and I both know it. Face it, McCain isn't going to win.

[Sam Spade]

I always thought it would have to be more like 25%, most likely, 20% at least. 33% sounds high.  Like I said before, Musgrove's problem geographically in MS is that most of the whites who care interested in voting Democratic live in Wicker's CD.

...or more to the point, the eastern half of it. Where Wicker is from. Musgrove himself is from the CD.

Although there are some such people in Taylor's district as well... and that's just talking at the presidential level.

Well, Musgrove will do better than average in his own black-belt county and probably nowhere else up there.  I don't dispute that a few of those whites live in Taylor's CD, but let's face it, I think we would both agree that the clear majority live in NE MS.

[Flying Dog]

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Because it's just outrageous. Obama will get 46-47% in Mississippi? He could very well help Musgrove, but blacks already vote in a very high percentage and already 90% for the Democrats.

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He could improve on Kerry's 39%, but an 8% improvement? Get real. He's not getting 46-47% in Mississippi, and he won't improve on Kerry's white vote numbers. To suggest that is far fetched.

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I'm so happy that you can see what's going to happen in November, Mr. "80% sure Obama will win NC." I am not bitter; I am just tired of the Obama fanboys suggesting these crazy notions. One guy says something stupid and it seems like the rest try to out do him.

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So what? McCain was leading in Massachusetts and New Jersey. Is it fair that we Republicans can start talking about how McCain is getting 45% in Massachusetts? Most of you won't even cede that he could get that in New Jersey.

There is that bitterness I was talking about.. McCain will get crushed and you and I both know it. Face it, McCain isn't going to win.

Hey, hey. There is plenty of bitterness to go around.

Plus, he may be bitter, but your being overly arrogant right now.

[minionofmidas]

Made a stupid little calculation based on the figures in the thread above: (%Kerry - %Black)/ (1 - %Black). That is to say, an approximation of Kerry's *minimum* share of the white vote, by county. For most Black Belt counties, and even some white majority counties, this gives a negative figure, btw. That may mean that Bush received more Black votes than Kerry received White votes, in absolute terms. It may also be due to turnout and % under 18 differences.



Counties with figures over 10% (Rounding-created ties broken by alphabet, not actual result order:)
Tishomingo 32
Alcorn 31
Benton 25 (only white-majority county to vote for Kerry - it has a high black pop. as well.)
Itawamba 24
Prentiss 24
Hancock 23
Lafayette 21
Harrison 20
Tippah 20
De Soto 18
Marshall 17 (only black-majority county to figure on this list)
George 14
Chickasaw 13
Monroe 13
Union 13
Pearl River 12
Jackson 11
Lee 11
Oktibbeha 11
Pontotoc 11
Stone 11
Tate 11

16 of the 18 counties from De Soto south to Yalobusha and then east to Monroe, with the exceptions along the perimeter (Panola and Calhoun). A working definition of the Mississippi Hill Country, including the Memphis Metro. (EDIT: Sorry. This would be the definition if the list included Yalobusha and excluded Oktibbeha. Pop. is still correct, though.)
And 6 counties on the Gulf Coast.

Combined population of 16 county area 566k (of which 107k in DeSoto and 76k in Lee - 2000 census data, as also for black pop.)
Combined population of 6 county area 446k (of which 190k in Harrison and 131k in Jackson

Hill Country's not as dominant among White Mississippi Democrats as I thought.

[Sam Spade]

Note the reason why I said *clear majority* and not *huge majority*

The real question, however, relates to how many whites from those areas would not vote for Kerry, but have voted for other Mississippi Dems, for example in 1999.  You might do your analysis based on that race and the 2003 gov race.

[minionofmidas]

Note the reason why I said *clear majority* and not *huge majority*

I did this mostly because I wanted to know, not to score points against you.

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Oh yeah. For another day though. Right now I was mostly interested in where the white straight ticket Dems are at.

[Josh/Devilman88]

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Because it's just outrageous. Obama will get 46-47% in Mississippi? He could very well help Musgrove, but blacks already vote in a very high percentage and already 90% for the Democrats.

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He could improve on Kerry's 39%, but an 8% improvement? Get real. He's not getting 46-47% in Mississippi, and he won't improve on Kerry's white vote numbers. To suggest that is far fetched.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm so happy that you can see what's going to happen in November, Mr. "80% sure Obama will win NC." I am not bitter; I am just tired of the Obama fanboys suggesting these crazy notions. One guy says something stupid and it seems like the rest try to out do him.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So what? McCain was leading in Massachusetts and New Jersey. Is it fair that we Republicans can start talking about how McCain is getting 45% in Massachusetts? Most of you won't even cede that he could get that in New Jersey.

There is that bitterness I was talking about.. McCain will get crushed and you and I both know it. Face it, McCain isn't going to win.

Hey, hey. There is plenty of bitterness to go around.

Plus, he may be bitter, but your being overly arrogant right now.

I was playing around, I knew if I said that he would get upset. The fact we really won't know who will win until Sept, that is when the polls aren't wacky any more, but if trends say the same(which I don't think they will) McCain is in a lot of trouble. For example, the top 15 closest state right now, 12 of the 15 are states that Bush won. And McCain have have the money to waste on polling states like AK, MT, NC, VA ect.

[Sam Spade]

Note the reason why I said *clear majority* and not *huge majority*

I did this mostly because I wanted to know, not to score points against you.

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Oh yeah. For another day though. Right now I was mostly interested in where the white straight ticket Dems are at.

Of course.  The difference between the margins in 1999 (Dem +1.1%) and 2003 (GOP +6.8%) is GOP +7.9%.  2004 (GOP +19.7%) is GOP +11.8% to 2003.

I just looked at Tishimongo for example, where the largest gap existed - the "union" county!

1999
Musgrove +14.1%

2003
Barbour +13.9%

28-point swing compared to an 8-point swing statewide...  hmmm..

2004
Bush +30.4%

16.5-point swing compared to 12.  Not as large, but still...

[charltonNick]

what effect will the Hurricane Katrina devastation have on election trends, considering the coastal area must have considerably a reduced population as compared to 2004?

[agcatter]

I think my point was that Musgrove can't win on black votes.  He needs substantially more white votes than Kerry got to get 50 + 1.  Being too closely tied to Obama will not get that done (very counterproductive) hence I said Obama going to Mississippi would be an obvious political mistake.  Musgrove already has the black vote.  He needs whites.  Of course some of you Obama koolaiders probably think the guy ought to cut commercials touting his support for Obama.  Uh, it won't work in Mississippi fellas and I'm pretty sure Obama isn't going to get any frantic phone calls from Musgrove requesting Barack to appear with him in Biloxi.

As far as the Obama 278 max I stand by that.  In other words I'm not buying Obama winning Florida, NC, Va, Mo stuff which flies around this board.  The 278 actually gives him Colorado, NM, Iowa, and Nevada along with the other Kerry states.  So no Brittain, my numbers didn't come out of my ass.

[Brittain33]

I think my point was that Musgrove can't win on black votes.

Concession noted. (If anyone here thought Musgrove could win with black votes only in a state that isn't majority black, they deserve to be corrected.)

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Absolutely. Being a conservative Democrat from Mississippi and not a liberal Democrat from Massachusetts will be good for some of those votes. You would agree that this matters, I hope.

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It's not obviously a political mistake at all. Obama going to Mississippi drives up black turnout. Whether Musgrove campaigns alongside Obama or not is another matter. Childers threaded this needle nicely, we saw.

What you guys have to be aware of, as you learned when Greg Davis crashed and burned, is that you won't be able to tie Musgrove to Obama without having it blow up in your face. This isn't Kerry; you're going to juice Musgrove's vote if you do that. It will be fun to see how Wicker tries to accomplish this, as he's smart enough to see that this Republican strategy blew up badly.

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As you often say... LOL.

[Sam Spade]

The problem wasn't Greg Davis connecting Obama to Childers (even though it obviously drove up black turnout).  Rather, the problem was Greg Davis not connecting one bit (and his opponent connecting big-time) with the NE MS population Lewis and I were yaking about above that is required in order to win the CD.  Trying to connect Obama to another candidate won't work in any situation if the voters don't want to vote for you in the first place.

Wicker doesn't have that second issue.  Nor will he have the problems (i.e. having it increase black turnout) with the first tactic in a general election.

Nonetheless, this is one area where I agree with MW08 - he's more likely to go after Musgrove's marital issues rather than Obama.  Mainly because I think it's a more effective strategy in a state like MS.

[agcatter]

I gave you my math on the 278 Brittain.  I thought that was what you wanted.

Quit being a dick.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There's a perfectly plausible 298 scenario, and it's not even necessarily Obama's best case.

[elcorazon]

There's a perfectly plausible 298 scenario, and it's not even necessarily Obama's best case.

that's my current prediction.

[agcatter]

You're 298 is my 278+Ohio.  That's a difference of one state.

Not Obama's best case? It is unless you really think Obama has a realistic shot at Virginia, NC, Missouri, ND, Montana, Georgia, Alaska etc, etc.  I simply maintain it's very uphill for Obama in any of those states just like it would be very uphill for McCain in, say, Michigan.

Realistically, I think his ceiling is 278 although you could indeed make an argument that Obama wins Ohio and captures the 298.  We can reasonably disagree over Ohio.