UT-3: Cannon (R) faces another agressive Primary challenge today, leads by 4%

[Adlai Stevenson]

Tuesday is primary day in Utah, but the only primary of note is the GOP race in CD-3. Congressman Chris Cannon (R) -- a perennial primary target -- yet again faces another stiff contest. Cannon is being challenged by former gubernatorial chief of staff and marketing executive Jason Chaffetz, who was also a BYU college football player. A Deseret News poll this week shows Cannon narrowly leading by a vote of 44% to 40%. Chaffetz attacks Cannon as insufficiently liberal, while Cannon responds that he is a reliable conservative vote in Congress. The winner of the GOP primary is a safe bet to win in November.

http://www.politics1.com/

[minionofmidas]

Chaffetz attacks Cannon as insufficiently liberal, while Cannon responds that he is a reliable conservative vote in Congress.

I think that's falsely worded, and they meant "insufficiently conservative", ie "too moderate".

[Meeker]

With less than 1% reporting, Chaffetz is out to a 56-44 lead

[Meeker]

3% in now and Chaffetz's lead holds... the big questions are of course Salt Lake and Utah counties. Chaffetz leads in the 2 precincts that have come in from Salt Lake thus far, but obviously very early numbers.

[Alcon]

Utah Republicans either redistricted liberal-leaning SLCity areas in or out of Matheson's district to try to screw with him/give up on him, but I can't remember which it was?

[Meeker]

I think they tried to get rid of him. The 2002 (2004?) race was relatively competitive.

First numbers from Utah County in now and Chaffetz is ahead there. Real numbers in from Salt Lake now and Chaffetz continues to hold onto his lead there as well.

Methinks Cannon is screwed.

EDIT: Matheson barely survived in 2002

[Spaghetti Cat]

Oi, 11% reporting, Chaffetz leads 55-45.

[Meeker]

21% in and Chaffetz leads 58-42

Nice knowing you, Former Congressman Cannon

[Spaghetti Cat]

It isn't over yet.

[Meeker]

These counties are pretty homogeneous in their make up and results... it's not like we're dealing with Southern Democratic contests here.

I'll wait for a few more numbers out of Utah County before I'm 100% sure, but Cannon's going to have to do pretty amazingly well there to pull it off (and the results thus far indicate that won't happen).

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

What a sad day for America.

God willing, there are some Cannon votes out there in the remainder, but the margin looks heavy.

[Meeker]

Chaffetz up to 61% now.

Cannon is getting killed by Salt Lake...

[Spaghetti Cat]

Christ, 46%, Chaffetz winning 61-39.

[Meeker]

More numbers in from Utah County and Cannon looks just as bad...

[Alcon]

I just checked a map of UT-3.  Most of the Salt Lake County portions were added around West Jordan, Sandy and West Valley City.

Cannon is screwed.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

In a few years the cannibals will come again, calling for Chaffetz's head for not being right-wing enough, and the process repeats itself until there is no Republican Party left for them to devour.  

[Meeker]

My understanding is that this was basically the "cheap labor from Mexicans" wing vs. the "we hate Mexicans" wing. The "we hate Mexicans" wing has clearly won out once again.

[Meeker]

In the three primary contests this year that an incumbent was defeated in, they weren't narrow defeats - they were blow outs. Coincidence, or is there an explanation?

[MarkWarner08]

In the three primary contests this year that an incumbent was defeated in, they weren't narrow defeats - they were blow outs. Coincidence, or is there an explanation?

The equation is quite simple: Record low Congressional approval ratings + worsening national economic conditions + 80% wrong track numbers + record low favorability ratings for the President = bad reelection climate, especially for previously vulnerable incumbents.

Chris Cannon never enjoyed much support from the fringe elements of his party. While that may not matter during a general election, that same dynamic is deadly when the primary turnout is <5%. The partisans motivated to vote in low-turnout primaries are usually hard-line ideologues who vote on a very narrow issue set. That rarely favors the low-key pragmatic types like Cannon.

[Meeker]

But why just these three districts? If it was some sort of widespread anger, wouldn't there be far more than this? This is just about average for a primary cycle thus far.

[MarkWarner08]

But why just these three districts? If it was some sort of widespread anger, wouldn't there be far more than this? This is just about average for a primary cycle thus far.

In non-wave elections, micro factors (candidate recruitment, state party strength, local political conditions) typically trump macro factors (how the President is faring, the state of the economy and foreign affairs). Even during wave years, the fundamentals can outweigh the national predicament of one political party. This is exemplified by the textbook defeats of Albert Wynn and Wayne Gilchrest earlies this year.

Representatives  Gilchrest  and Wynn had both been targeted by special interest groups for years. Both were unintentionally harmed by redistricting: Wynn had more affluent areas added to his district and Gilchrest lost a chunk of his base. The bloggers and unions helped topple Wynn and the radical Club for Growth bankrolled ads that misrepresent and maligned Gilchrest's record.  While the political climate surely contributed to the outcomes, it's likely that money flowing to the challengers was the paramount factor in these races.

[Meeker]

Any day now Utah County/AP...

[Meeker]

AP finally calls it. I'm not really surprised, but I don't think I expected this

[Downwinder]

Holy sh**t, and Hallelujah!!  I was not expecting this--not in the least.  Cannon always pulls it out in the end after tough primary fights.  I thought he would tonight as well.  Rep. Cannon is a slimebag, and I'm glad he's gone--I'm sure he'll quickly land a nice, fat, lobbying job.  Even if Chaffetz isn't much better from my political perspective, at least he doesn't stink of corruption.  I think the immigration issue could well have pulled Cannon down this time--some elements in his rabid district turned on him viciously, when he was perceived to be 'soft' on the issue.  My parents live in the 3rd district, and have been suspicious of the Cannon Family for as long as I can remember--but they still weren't sold on Chaffetz either.  I'm glad Cannon went under in this 'wave' that may be forming--and I'm still hesitant to call it a wave, even after a shock like tonights.

[Meeker]

Are the primaries in Utah closed?