OR: Survey USA: Obama leads Oregon by 3%

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New Poll: Oregon President by Survey USA on 2008-06-22

Summary: D: 48%, R: 45%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Obama 48% (-1)
McCain 45% (+6)

Another SUSA poll with strange party ID numbers

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LOL, Obama leads by 9 in Portland?  No way.

Well, their definition of Portland is ridiculous.  Kerry won it by 11.7% while losing "Rest of State" by 9.4%.

It fits a 3% lead.  Not that I seriously think Obama leads Oregon by only 3%.  Lol summer polling.

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LOL, Obama leads by 9 in Portland?  No way.

Well, their definition of Portland is ridiculous.  Kerry won it by 11.7% while losing "Rest of State" by 9.4%.

It fits a 3% lead.  Not that I seriously think Obama leads Oregon by only 3%.  Lol summer polling.

I thought he carried Multnomah county by 45 points or so?

Well, Portland isn't actually equal to Multnomah County, and even if it were, Multnomah County isn't 64% of Oregon, as SUSA's sample is.

SUSA's "Portland" somehow manages to include not only the suburbs, but also the northern Pacific beaches, Salem and parts of the eastern Oregon plains ().  It's terrible naming.

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The advertisement on SUSA just had Ahmedinejad and Barack together by McCain's Campaign.

And?

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Also, does the party affiliation seem really off to anyone else?  41% Republican and 42% Democratic?  That seems really high for Republicans.

Yes, especially since SUSA is pushy about party affiliation among independents, and the type of voters that should "push" would generally vote Democratic.  That is, a SUSA sample of Oregon should probably be slightly more Democratic than the exit poll, considering the lessened independents.