PA: Rasmussen: Obama is ahead of McCain by 4

[bullmoose88]

Obama's up big nationally (at least 5 points and as much as 15 if that crappy news week poll is to be believed...)

Yes the parity among women for Obama and McCain should put some doubt to the plus 4 number, but I'd be worried about the fact Obama only has 69% of dems...sure that can be a screwup too, but just look at that primary...counties we thought obama would run well in (Bucks, Montco, Delaware etc) he got shelacked....Bucks in particular...

I'm still wondering if the Blue Collar Reagan Democrat (typical of old suburb Philly) will come back to Obama or put aside his/her hate of the GOP to vote against Barrack.

[J. J.]

Obama won Delco, but the rest were not a good performance, especially since there was a big registration shift in Montco.

[classical liberal]

Good news for McCain considering Obama's national lead.

What I don't understand is how so many people think PA is a toss-up and it is polling +6 for Obama, but NC is polling is polling +3 for McCain and it is a lean to strong state for McCain. Can I say two-face.

Because most of those undecideds will vote for the GOP in the end. NC polled kind of close in 2004 and Bush will won by 13% on election day, and that was with Edwards on the ticket.

That isn't true. According to the exit polls out of NC in 2004. Over 60% of the undecideds voted for Kerry, not Bush.

Sure, those two were undecided three days before the election. Whatever, but that doesn't change the fact that the polling was Bush +8 and it ended up being Bush +13, and that was with Edwards on the ticket (I know Edwards wasn't popular in NC, but still). It's not like Pennsylvania, that swung towards Kerry on election night from where the polls had it.

Bush was polling at 52% with 4% MoE. Kerry was polling around 44%. If you put the MoE in play going for Bush. You have 56-40 with 3% unsure. The end results was 56-43, so that would lead you to believe that most of the unsures ended up voting for Kerry, you have proff of that if you look back at the exit polls. People asked if they made up their mind would to vote for with-in 3 days of the election voted around 70% for Kerry, when asked if they made up their mind a week before the election around 60% voted for Kerry and aked if they made up their mind a month before the election a little over 50% of them voted for Kerry. I know exit polls aren't always right, but it is the only thing we have to go by. And according to that most of the unsures went for Kerry not Bush.

You are talking about 1 week undecideds, he was referring to 6 month undecideds, who have a tendency in NC to come home to the GOP by the fall in the way that those in NJ come home to the Dems, since the undecideds/soft leaners in the poll are 6 month undecideds (the soft leaners among whom are pushed to pick although their support is not completely decided).

[Padfoot]

If the women numbers are right I would be very worried if McCain opts for a female VP.  He actually has about as many good women to choose for veep as Obama does.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Good news for McCain considering Obama's national lead.

What I don't understand is how so many people think PA is a toss-up and it is polling +6 for Obama, but NC is polling is polling +3 for McCain and it is a lean to strong state for McCain. Can I say two-face.

Because most of those undecideds will vote for the GOP in the end. NC polled kind of close in 2004 and Bush will won by 13% on election day, and that was with Edwards on the ticket.

That isn't true. According to the exit polls out of NC in 2004. Over 60% of the undecideds voted for Kerry, not Bush.

Sure, those two were undecided three days before the election. Whatever, but that doesn't change the fact that the polling was Bush +8 and it ended up being Bush +13, and that was with Edwards on the ticket (I know Edwards wasn't popular in NC, but still). It's not like Pennsylvania, that swung towards Kerry on election night from where the polls had it.

Bush was polling at 52% with 4% MoE. Kerry was polling around 44%. If you put the MoE in play going for Bush. You have 56-40 with 3% unsure. The end results was 56-43, so that would lead you to believe that most of the unsures ended up voting for Kerry, you have proff of that if you look back at the exit polls. People asked if they made up their mind would to vote for with-in 3 days of the election voted around 70% for Kerry, when asked if they made up their mind a week before the election around 60% voted for Kerry and aked if they made up their mind a month before the election a little over 50% of them voted for Kerry. I know exit polls aren't always right, but it is the only thing we have to go by. And according to that most of the unsures went for Kerry not Bush.

You are talking about 1 week undecideds, he was referring to 6 month undecideds, who have a tendency in NC to come home to the GOP by the fall in the way that those in NJ come home to the Dems, since the undecideds/soft leaners in the poll are 6 month undecideds (the soft leaners among whom are pushed to pick although their support is not completely decided).

If I'm right, I believe that there ar more left-leaning undecideds then right-leaning ones. I could have changed since the last time I checked.