WA: Survey USA: Obama leads Washington by 15%

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New Poll: Washington President by Survey USA on 2008-06-22

Summary: D: 55%, R: 40%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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thanks for that. what about Spokane area, is that liberal or conservative?

Spokane proper is pretty much 50/50, but the Spokane suburbs and rural areas are by and large quite Republican.

If Obama is winning by 15-20 points here like the polls indicate, Spokane County will probably be a toss-up.

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Spokane county will likely go for Obama this year by around 2-5%, in 2004 Bush just barely won the county. The city of Spokane itself is suprisingly liberal for an Eastern Washington city, it is the suburbs around it that moderate the area.

Bush actually won the county solidly (55-43), but it was closer with Gore (52-43).  Spokane the city has its liberal parts, but it voted Bush narrowly in 2004.  My guess is that Gore won the city by a couple of points.

If Cantwell's 16.91-point win is anything like a Obama +15-20 performance, he'd almost certainly win Spokane County -- she won it by about 3.  With a 10-15 point win, though, it's no certain thing.

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On the Westside, Skagit, Skamania, and Clallam might swing to Obama, while the rest of SW WA should swing toward McCain. Doesn't Island county have a lot of veterans or a military reservation? I doubt it will swing to Obama.

Skagit - Funky place.  Very ideologically divided electorate.  Obama did great in the primary here.  It's one of those areas where McCain is an "eh" fit for the GOP base while the Democrats will go crazy for Obama.  Unless Obama sucks among blue-collar voters, he should carry Skagit

Skamania - God knows.  In a 16-point victory, though, he'll take it.  Skamania seems like it should be unpredictable, because it's such a weird place politically, but it usually isn't.

Clallam - See Skagit, although the number of older people could help McCain some.  Then again, Obama won Sequim in the primary, so God knows.

Island County does have a lot of veterans and active military folks around Oak Harbor, but Bush did a good job turning those out, and I'm unconvinced that McCain can improve in margins or raw votes.  Both candidates are excellent fits, though.  In a 15-point blowout, I can't imagine Obama not winning.

I'd also add Wahkiakum and Clark to the list of possibilities.  In fact, every Western Washington county save for Lewis might go Obama.

East WA should see Klickitat, Whitman, and maybe Okanogan, Ferry (bellweather!), Spokane, Pend Orielle, and even Asotin swing to Obama. They do vote strong for Republicans, but there aren't too many votes to swing there. In fact I feel that in places like Asotin, Ferry, and Pend Orielle, there might be moderates who just tend to vote GOP. Those counties are very different from the rest of E. WA.

Northeastern Washington is weird.  Cantwell lost all three, although Pend Oreille was close.  Stevens is a lost cause for the Democrats.  In theory, the areas should be ripe pickings -- mediocre economy, not especially religious.  They'll be interesting to watch, but it should also be considered that McCain played great in Northeastern Washington in 2000.

I see Klickitat and especially Whitman (college turnout!) being very likely flips in a big victory, with Spokane as a second-tier.  Asotin should also be second-tier, and has an inexplicable fetish for minority candidates.  Okanogan is interesting.  Obama is a great fit for the Mazama Valley, and plays well with Democrats in the rest of the county too...whether that means independents as well is unclear.

Hehe.  This started as a short post too.