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  WA: Survey USA: Obama leads Washington by 15%
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Author Topic: WA: Survey USA: Obama leads Washington by 15%  (Read 1334 times)
Alcon
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« on: June 21, 2008, 03:03:01 pm »

New Poll: Washington President by Survey USA on 2008-06-22

Summary: D: 55%, R: 40%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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The Ex-Factor
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« Reply #1 on: June 21, 2008, 03:07:33 pm »

Dammit stop polling Washington, folks.

Though I should note in this one Eastern Washington is safely GOP once more.
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bgwah
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« Reply #2 on: June 21, 2008, 03:08:25 pm »

Dammit stop polling Washington, folks.

Though I should note in this one Eastern Washington is safely GOP once more.


Haha, now it's actually too Republican. Weird. McCain won't win Eastern Washington by 24 points.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2008, 03:10:31 pm »

Dammit stop polling Washington, folks.

Though I should note in this one Eastern Washington is safely GOP once more.


Haha, now it's actually too Republican. Weird. McCain won't win Eastern Washington by 24 points.

I thought "Eastside" meant the Seattle suburbs on the east side of the lake. I would assume that's included in Metro Seattle (Obama leads by 29) not Eastern Washington (McCain leads by 24).
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bgwah
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« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2008, 03:13:24 pm »

Dammit stop polling Washington, folks.

Though I should note in this one Eastern Washington is safely GOP once more.


Haha, now it's actually too Republican. Weird. McCain won't win Eastern Washington by 24 points.

I thought "Eastside" meant the Seattle suburbs on the east side of the lake. I would assume that's included in Metro Seattle (Obama leads by 29) not Eastern Washington (McCain leads by 24).

I already edited it! Sad

People in Eastern Washington refer to their part of the state as the Eastside. They also refer to Western Washington as the Westside.

It's kind of confusing for someone who has spent their entire life in both Eastsides.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2008, 03:15:39 pm »

A new law; you can only poll the following states:
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
Missouri
Wisconsin
Michigan
New Mexico
Colorado
Nevada
Alaska
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bgwah
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« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2008, 03:16:28 pm »

So a television network in Washington pays SUSA to have their state polled. Get over it, guys.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #7 on: June 21, 2008, 03:58:49 pm »

Gee, I sure hope that McCain spends some time in the Pacific NW... seems ripe territory for his maveriky nature
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charltonNick
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« Reply #8 on: June 21, 2008, 05:08:14 pm »

Can anyone explain exactly what is obama's specific appeal to this state and why they seem to love him so much?
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #9 on: June 21, 2008, 06:47:58 pm »

A new law; you can only poll the following states:
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
Missouri
Wisconsin
Michigan
New Mexico
Colorado
Nevada
Alaska


You might want to add, ND, SD and SC. I mean when is the last time we got a poll out of them states?
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ottermax
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« Reply #10 on: June 21, 2008, 06:58:12 pm »

Can anyone explain exactly what is obama's specific appeal to this state and why they seem to love him so much?

Washington is a highly secular state, fairly libertarian, although it is polarized between the East and West. Western Washington is overwhelmingly Democratic, but Republican can with with the suburbs East of Seattle. However, as a resident of the Eastside (Seattle burbs), I know that Obama is just loved here. I have no clue why, but I have been caught up as well as the rest of my area in Obamamania. Heavily college-educated, affluent demographics that tend to be liberal, so Obama gets a lot of help. Washington has all the demographics that are perfect for Obama.

McCain could be good in Washington, but Obama is just better for the state. Against Clinton, we would probably vote for McCain.
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charltonNick
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« Reply #11 on: June 21, 2008, 07:59:56 pm »

thanks for that. what about Spokane area, is that liberal or conservative?
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Alcon
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« Reply #12 on: June 21, 2008, 10:33:22 pm »

thanks for that. what about Spokane area, is that liberal or conservative?

Spokane proper is pretty much 50/50, but the Spokane suburbs and rural areas are by and large quite Republican.

If Obama is winning by 15-20 points here like the polls indicate, Spokane County will probably be a toss-up.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #13 on: June 22, 2008, 12:36:44 am »

thanks for that. what about Spokane area, is that liberal or conservative?

Spokane proper is pretty much 50/50, but the Spokane suburbs and rural areas are by and large quite Republican.

If Obama is winning by 15-20 points here like the polls indicate, Spokane County will probably be a toss-up.

Spokane county will likely go for Obama this year by around 2-5%, in 2004 Bush just barely won the county. The city of Spokane itself is suprisingly liberal for an Eastern Washington city, it is the suburbs around it that moderate the area.
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Alcon
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« Reply #14 on: June 22, 2008, 12:55:17 am »
« Edited: June 22, 2008, 01:26:48 am by Alcon »

Spokane county will likely go for Obama this year by around 2-5%, in 2004 Bush just barely won the county. The city of Spokane itself is suprisingly liberal for an Eastern Washington city, it is the suburbs around it that moderate the area.

Bush actually won the county solidly (55-43), but it was closer with Gore (52-43).  Spokane the city has its liberal parts, but it voted Bush narrowly in 2004.  My guess is that Gore won the city by a couple of points.

If Cantwell's 16.91-point win is anything like a Obama +15-20 performance, he'd almost certainly win Spokane County -- she won it by about 3.  With a 10-15 point win, though, it's no certain thing.
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ottermax
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« Reply #15 on: June 22, 2008, 01:30:47 am »

On the Westside, Skagit, Skamania, and Clallam might swing to Obama, while the rest of SW WA should swing toward McCain. Doesn't Island county have a lot of veterans or a military reservation? I doubt it will swing to Obama.
East WA should see Klickitat, Whitman, and maybe Okanogan, Ferry (bellweather!), Spokane, Pend Orielle, and even Asotin swing to Obama. They do vote strong for Republicans, but there aren't too many votes to swing there. In fact I feel that in places like Asotin, Ferry, and Pend Orielle, there might be moderates who just tend to vote GOP. Those counties are very different from the rest of E. WA.
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Alcon
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« Reply #16 on: June 22, 2008, 01:40:57 am »

On the Westside, Skagit, Skamania, and Clallam might swing to Obama, while the rest of SW WA should swing toward McCain. Doesn't Island county have a lot of veterans or a military reservation? I doubt it will swing to Obama.

Skagit - Funky place.  Very ideologically divided electorate.  Obama did great in the primary here.  It's one of those areas where McCain is an "eh" fit for the GOP base while the Democrats will go crazy for Obama.  Unless Obama sucks among blue-collar voters, he should carry Skagit

Skamania - God knows.  In a 16-point victory, though, he'll take it.  Skamania seems like it should be unpredictable, because it's such a weird place politically, but it usually isn't.

Clallam - See Skagit, although the number of older people could help McCain some.  Then again, Obama won Sequim in the primary, so God knows.

Island County does have a lot of veterans and active military folks around Oak Harbor, but Bush did a good job turning those out, and I'm unconvinced that McCain can improve in margins or raw votes.  Both candidates are excellent fits, though.  In a 15-point blowout, I can't imagine Obama not winning.

I'd also add Wahkiakum and Clark to the list of possibilities.  In fact, every Western Washington county save for Lewis might go Obama.

East WA should see Klickitat, Whitman, and maybe Okanogan, Ferry (bellweather!), Spokane, Pend Orielle, and even Asotin swing to Obama. They do vote strong for Republicans, but there aren't too many votes to swing there. In fact I feel that in places like Asotin, Ferry, and Pend Orielle, there might be moderates who just tend to vote GOP. Those counties are very different from the rest of E. WA.

Northeastern Washington is weird.  Cantwell lost all three, although Pend Oreille was close.  Stevens is a lost cause for the Democrats.  In theory, the areas should be ripe pickings -- mediocre economy, not especially religious.  They'll be interesting to watch, but it should also be considered that McCain played great in Northeastern Washington in 2000.

I see Klickitat and especially Whitman (college turnout!) being very likely flips in a big victory, with Spokane as a second-tier.  Asotin should also be second-tier, and has an inexplicable fetish for minority candidates.  Okanogan is interesting.  Obama is a great fit for the Mazama Valley, and plays well with Democrats in the rest of the county too...whether that means independents as well is unclear.

Hehe.  This started as a short post too.
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bgwah
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« Reply #17 on: June 22, 2008, 02:13:04 am »

^ That brings up a good question. What is the politically weirdest county in Washington? Asotin certainly gives Skamania some serious competition.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #18 on: June 22, 2008, 02:18:21 am »

If Cantwell's 16.91-point win is anything like a Obama +15-20 performance, he'd almost certainly win Spokane County -- she won it by about 3.

I know Republicans are pessimistic, but at the very least, I hope McCain will not register 0.17 percent on a blood-alcohol test in Maryland between now and the election.

If so:  goodbye, Spokane County!
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